Think you’re bad luck for your team? Opta and Xbox have created Expected Jinx (xJ), a new metric that uses match data to test whether fan superstition holds up.
Every football fan has, at some point, wondered whether they are bad luck for their team. Until now, that feeling has mostly been brushed off as superstition. But what if there really was a way to test it?
Introducing Expected Jinx (xJ). In the hunt for football’s unluckiest fan, Opta and Xbox have teamed up to create a new fan-based statistic that puts numbers behind superstition. Using match data and fan behaviour, xJ measures whether your team performs better or worse when you’re watching.
Enter how you watched your team’s last 10 matches to receive a personalised xJ score, see how you compare with other fans and share your result using #ScoreMoreWithXbox.
Fans have the chance to win Xbox and EA SPORTS FC 26 prizes, with the unluckiest supporter taking home an Xbox Series X and 250,000 EA SPORTS FC Points – proof that, for once, being unlucky might actually work in your favour.
Find out your xJ score below:
How Do We Calculate Expected Jinx (xJ)?
Expected Jinx (xJ) compares your team’s results from their last 10 matches with Opta’s live win probability data, alongside your personal matchday viewing habits, to estimate the impact you may have had on outcomes. The Expected Jinx Calculator combines data with superstition, finally adding a number to your bad luck.
The model accounts for more than 59,049 possible combinations of matchday viewing variables for each fan and draws from over one million data points in Opta’s database. The result is xJ, a statistic able to measure the effect a fan has on their club.
The xJ Calculator uses team strength and form to estimate the number of points a team are expected to get from a game. By comparing this value to the actual result, each fan is given an xJ score to show how watching the match or staying at home influenced their team’s performance.
A positive xJ score will be given to the fans whose teams perform worse when they watch (with added bonuses for being in the stadium). A negative score means you’re the opposite of a jinx and you’re a good omen for your team when you watch.
Which Fixtures Have Been Jinxed the Most by Fans So Far This Season?
Using data from the Premier League season so far, we’ve identified the five fixtures where the fans watching in the stadium have jinxed their team the most, as measured by each side’s matchday xJ score.
Liverpool 1-2 Manchester United – 19 October 2025 – 2.472 xJ
Liverpool were heavy favourites going into Matchday 8 against Manchester United. Three points would’ve taken them to within one point of league leaders, Arsenal. Despite scoring their only goal, Liverpool’s Cody Gakpo struck the woodwork three times on the day (only the second time a Liverpool player has done so in a Premier League match).
Bryan Mbeumo’s goal in the second minute and a late Harry Maguire header made sure no Liverpool fan was lucky that day.
Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland – 25 October 2025 – 2.468 xJ
You’ve got to be a big contender for the ultimate jinx when newly promoted Sunderland are scoring a 93rd-minute winner against you at Stamford Bridge in October.
Chelsea’s defence might as well have been watching at home as some excellent hold-up play by Brian Brobbey set up Chemsdine Talbi’s last-minute winner.
Arsenal 2-3 Manchester United – 25 January 2026 – 2.419 xJ
After back-to-back Premier League draws against Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, Arsenal could really have done with maximum points against new manager Michael Carrick’s Manchester United.
Matheus Cunha’s long-range finish into the bottom corner made sure Arsenal fans left the Emirates feeling guilty. Can you jinx a Premier League title run too?
Liverpool 0-3 Nottingham Forest – 22 November 2025 – 2.413 xJ
Despite taking 21 shots and having 74% possession against Nottingham Forest, Liverpool found themselves three goals away from any chance of points on the day. It marked the first time Liverpool had lost back-to-back league games by a margin of 3+ goals since April 1965 under Bill Shankly. Maybe some Liverpool fans should be avoiding Anfield this season.
Aston Villa 0-1 Everton – 18 January 2026 – 2.228 xJ
Aston Villa were unbeaten in all 13 of their Premier League games against Everton since their return to the division in 2019 (W9 D4). Thierno Barry took full advantage of some bad luck in the Villa defence after Pau Torres slipped.
You’re definitely not a good luck charm if you watch Villa suffer only their second defeat in their last 29 Premier League home games.
If you have ever questioned your luck, why not put it to the test? You never know, your bad luck might finally score you an Xbox win.
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Are You Bad Luck For Your Team? Find Out With Expected Jinx Opta Analyst.
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