Ahead of the 2026 Six Nations, we are putting our reputation on the line once more by making six bold predictions.
We did pretty well in 2025, correctly predicting there would be no Grand Slam and also picking Louis Bielle-Biarrey as the tournament’s top try scorer. We also predicted someone could break the carrying record, and Blair Kinghorn (580 metres) did just yet. Ireland did let us down as our pre-championship favourites, though, as France claimed their 19th Six Nations crown.
Here we go, then. These are our Six Nations predictions for 2026.
Who Will Win the 2026 Six Nations?
Predicting the winner of this year’s men’s Six Nations is no easy job. Luckily, we can fall back on the Opta supercomputer to do the hard work for us. It is backing France (49.3%) to double down on their 2025 title and win consecutive Championships for the first time since 2006-2007.
All of the top three sides in our predictor have a realistic chance of winning the Six Nations this year. England (29.8%) are second favourites, and come into this tournament in arguably the best form of any side. But will their front-row crisis hamper their chances?
Ireland are our third-ranked side (19.9%) and a worrying injury list will not give fans a lot of confidence, especially after a shaky 2025.
From there, it’s a long drop off to Scotland (0.78%), but even they might fancy their chances if they can string some results together while the other sides take points off each other.
At the other end of the table, we expect a beleaguered and Jac Morgan-less Welsh side to pick up an unwelcome third consecutive Wooden Spoon. As ever, their clash with Italy (0.5%) in the final round could well decide who props up the table.
Six Nations Top Try Scorer Prediction
France’s Louis Bielle-Biarrey scored eight tries in the 2025 Men’s Six Nations, the most by any player in an edition of the Championship, overtaking Jacob Stockdale’s tally of seven in 2018.
The Bordeaux star scored in each round of the campaign, a feat also achieved by Tommy Freeman, and the pair became just the second and third players ever to do so, after Philippe Bernat-Salles in 2001.
Since the 2025 Six Nations those two players have not let up. Across club and country, Bielle-Biarrey and Freeman have scored more tries than anyone else in Europe. The Frenchman has crossed for 27 tries in 27 appearances while Freeman has scored 21 in 18. The English winger has scored a remarkable four hat-tricks in that span, two in the Champions Cup and two in Prem Rugby.
However, our money is on the 22-year-old Frenchman to defend his crown as top try scorer ahead of Freeman, especially as the latter may get deployed in the centres this time around.
Two notable players in the graphic above who will be absent from this year’s tournament are Damian Penaud, who has been dropped, and Ange Capuozzo (15), who is out injured.
If you’re after an outside bet then Nicolas Depoortère has scored 18 tries since last year’s Six Nations. Could the highly-rated centre carry his form into this edition?
Maro Itoje Will Be Crowned Turnover King
Maro Itoje’s stock could scarcely be higher heading into the spring. He captained the British & Irish Lions to a series victory in Australia last summer and followed that up by guiding England to a clean sweep in the 2025 Quilter Nations Series.
Game time certainly won’t be an issue for Itoje. The towering forward has played the full 80 minutes in all 30 of England’s Six Nations fixtures so far this decade, the longest such run of anyone in Championship history. Barring injury, he is likely to extend that to 35 straight 80-minute appearances this year.
England’s clash against Ireland in Round 3 will hold extra significance for the Saracens star, as it will mark his 100th cap for England. That will see him become the ninth men’s player to reach a century for the nation.
Itoje is also poised to write another piece of history this year, as he sits joint-first on the all-time list for turnovers won in the men’s Six Nations. He needs just one more steal to overtake Brian O’Driscoll and claim the record outright (53 each currently).
While it’s almost a given that he’ll win at least one turnover at some point over the course of the Championship, we’re backing Itoje to claim the crown in style and win the most of anyone in this year’s edition.
He has finished top of the pile for turnovers won twice previously, in 2017 (9) and 2022 (6), and has ranked among the top five in all six Championships since the start of the 2020s. His form for Saracens this season suggests he’ll be there or thereabouts yet again, having averaged over one turnover per 80 minutes at club level this term (1.12).
France to Break Their Own Try Record
One key trend in recent Six Nations campaigns that has delighted the purists has been the increase in the number of tries.
So far this decade, there’s been an average of 85 tries scored per edition, a rise of 42% on the 2010s (60).
Last year’s Championship was the first to see the 100 mark broken (108), with France becoming the first side to score 30 tries in a single edition.
It’s a pattern that’s evident across Europe at the domestic level, too. Across all the major European club competitions, the average number of tries scored per game has risen every year this decade, from 5.6 in 2020-21 to 7.3 this season.
France may have opted against including their top two Six Nations try scorers of all time – Damian Penaud and Gael Fickou – but even discounting them and the previously discussed Bielle-Biarrey, the try-scoring potential in France’s class of 2026 is immense.
Gael Drean and Gregoire Arfeuil are in line to make their Test debuts for Les Bleus, and both are among the 11 players who’ve scored 10+ tries in the major European club competitions this season. The prodigious Depoortère is in that contingent too, while Matthieu Jalibert ranks first across Europe for direct try involvements this term (25, 9 tries and 16 assists).
The Rise of the ‘Tap Back’
Kicking strategies have shifted in recent years with new ‘escorting’ laws allowing more aerial contests and we expect it to be a prominent feature of this year’s Six Nations.
The modern-day international winger isn’t just expected to be a pacy finisher – their work under the high ball now comes under just as much scrutiny as their ability to rack up five-pointers.
While attacking catches are increasing with the new laws, there is a new aerial strategy which has come to the fore: the ‘tap back’.
While the preferred option for kick-chasers is still to attempt to catch an attacking kick outright, the rate at which tap backs have risen in the last year suggests 2026 could see the humble catch overtaken by this new en vogue option.
The new laws surrounding kick chases saw catch attempts go up by 35% between 2024 and 2025, while tap backs rose by 58%. The reason for that difference can be explained by the data.
The success rate for attempting to catch an attacking kick outright has sat between 35-45% in the last five years of the Six Nations, while tap backs in the same period have always had a success rate above 60%.
Knocking the ball backwards in the air lowers the risk of knock-ons and with a host of teammates following up behind, the kicking team stands a good chance of retaining possession. That’s combined with the fact that retreating defenders are often hesitant to attack the loose ball in case they are pinged for being offside, given it’s not always clear who has touched the ball in the air. Expect the aerial battle to be key in 2026.
Wales to Be the best… Tacklers
Yes, we know what you’re thinking, ‘surely the favourites for the Wooden Spoon won’t be the best tacklers?!’ But hear us out.
Steve Tandy took over as Wales head coach midway through 2025 and while it’s the first time he’s taken such a role in international rugby, he’s been at the heart of the most miserly defence in the Six Nations this decade.
During his time as Scotland defence coach, the Scots recorded the best tackle success rate in five of the six editions of the tournament, failing to do so only in 2022. In addition to that, his Ospreys side had one of the best rates in the URC during his time as head coach; their 89.2% tackle success rate during his tenure was only fractionally lower than Edinburgh’s (89.3%). It’s fair to say he knows a thing or two about defence.
Returning to the question of whether a Wooden Spoon-winning team could realistically have the best tackle success rate in an edition of the Championship, it has happened once previously – Wales claiming that confusing honour back in 2003.
Do you agree with our Six Nations predictions for 2026? Check out our other Rugby content on Opta Analyst. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook
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