This weekend, Manchester City blew a half-time lead in a Premier League match for the fifth time this season, highlighting a worrying trend for Pep Guardiola’s side.
When Rob Jones blew the half-time whistle at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday afternoon, Manchester City were in control.Antoine Semenyo’s 44th-minute strike had given them a two-goal lead in north London, and with Spurs attempting just three shots in the first half and only one of those from inside the box, City looked comfortable.
That, coupled with Tottenham’s hugely underwhelming league form under Thomas Frank, had even forced some home fans to leave the stadium at half-time.
But the second half was a different story.
It’s obviously better going into the break with a lead instead of drawing or even trailing, but 2-0 is often considered a tough half-time advantage to hold, with teams unsure whether to risk going for a third to put the game to bed or choosing to sit back to protect the lead, which can allow opponents to come on to them. It’s safe to say City did neither in this game.
A brace from Dominic Solanke inside the opening 25 minutes of the second half stunned Pep Guardiola’s side, and the game ended 2-2. Game state played a part, of course – Spurs had nothing to lose with a two-goal deficit to overcome, so attacked more than we’ve become used to under Frank – but it was still a total capitulation from City.
Worryingly for Guardiola’s side, it highlighted a problem that’s afflicted their title challenge since the turn of the year. They’ve been leading in four of their six games at half-time in the Premier League since 1 January, and in three of those they have gone on to drop points.
One-nil half-time leads against Chelsea and Brighton were squandered in the final 30 minutes, followed by Sunday’s 2-2 draw at Tottenham.
Man City have dropped 11 points from half-time leads in the Premier League this season – only relegation-threatened West Ham have dropped more from such situations (13).
Of course, City’s numbers are slightly skewed by the fact they’ve held more half-time leads than any other side in the competition (five more games, in fact), but the points dropped from those positions still raise questions about how much control they’ve exerted in 2025-26.
Control has been a big theme of the Guardiola era. Across his 366 Premier League games in charge, City have recorded by far the highest average possession share (65.8%) and have completed, on average, 96 more successful passes per game than any other side.
Historically, once City move ahead, it has been extremely difficult for opponents to turn games around. Before this season, City averaged just one point dropped from winning positions every four Premier League games – a better record than any other team in the competition.
Their 11 points dropped from half-time leads this season is their most in any Premier League season since 2004-05 (17 – under Kevin Keegan and Stuart Pearce). It’s also one more than in the whole of last season (10).
Across this season and last, City have dropped 21 points from 35 Premier League matches in which they led at half-time (0.60 points dropped per game). In Guardiola’s previous eight seasons in charge, that figure stood at 42 points from 176 such games (0.24 per game).
There have been five separate games in which City have lost half-time leads this season: Brighton (A) in August, Arsenal (A) in September and the games against Chelsea (H), Brighton (H) and Tottenham (A) since the turn of the year.
That tally of five is already more than in any of their previous 17 top-flight seasons. They last threw away more half-time leads in 2004-05 (8).
City have undeniably been the best Premier League team in first halves this season. If games ended at half-time this season, City would be top of the league by 12 points.
The issue is that Arsenal have been both strong at holding onto leads when taking them into half-time and a more impressive team in the second half of matches.
City now find themselves six points behind the Gunners in the Premier League title race, and a lot of that is down to dropping points in the second half of matches. Arsenal, in comparison, haven’t dropped a single point from the 11 games in which they’ve led in at half-time in 2025-26. Similarly, Aston Villa, who have also put up a strong title challenge this season, haven’t dropped any points in the six games they’ve led at half-time.
City had more shots and better-quality chances in the second half as the game began to open up, but they just couldn’t take them. Guardiola’s side allowed Spurs back into the game, giving away three times as many shots in the second half (9) as in the first (3). Again, much of this was down to Spurs needing to chase the game to stand any chance of picking up points, but City allowed it to happen.
Despite their recent downturn in second-half performances in Premier League matches, this was still the first time City had led by 2+ goals at half-time in a game and failed to win since April 2018 (3-2 defeat to Manchester United). Before Sunday’s game, they’d won on each of the last 115 occasions when leading by 2+ goals at the break in all competitions.
City have been a lot more open at the back across the second half of Premier League matches this season, too.
They’ve conceded 17 goals in the second half of their 24 games – 11 more than in the first. They’ve faced over double the number of shots in the second half compared to the first (156 vs 71), while only attempting 10 more themselves in the second half of matches.
Again, some of this will be down to game state – remember, City have led at half-time in 16 of their 24 games – but their goal, shot and xG differences across the two halves are quite alarming.
City now have 14 games left to overhaul a six-point deficit to Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table. If they are to stand any chance of doing that, they need to back up their hard work getting ahead in games with second-half performances to match.
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Second-Half Surrender: How Man City’s Frailties After Half-Time Are Hindering a Title Challenge Opta Analyst.
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