The BBC risks a catastrophic collapse in the number of people paying the licence fee if viewers are forced to buy high-speed broadband to watch its TV channels, a new poll warns.
The corporation could lose billions of pounds in income if the Government moves ahead with plans to switch off Freeview, the platform used in more than 16 million homes, which gives free-to-air access to the BBC and other broadcasters, by the end of 2034.
But nearly 48 per cent of people would oppose paying the £174.50 licence fee if BBC content were only available online, according to a survey carried out by Strand Partners and commissioned by the Broadcast 2040+ coalition.
A similar proportion of people (49 per cent) said they would watch less or stop watching BBC content altogether. Thirty-six per cent said it would not change their viewing habits.
The polling, shared with The i Paper, comes as the BBC explores radical new ways to sustain its funding, including reportedly a “levy” on listening to its radio stations, with ministers carrying out a review into the broadcaster’s future.
Industry insiders believe a such a levy would be impossible to enforce since there is currently no mechanism to block non-payers from listening to BBC radio channels.
The licence fee brought in £3.8bn for the BBC last year, with 23.8 million licences in force. A boycott of the charge of the size suggested by the poll would wipe out £1.8bn of income, likely forcing the BBC into drastic cuts and service closures.
With millions of viewers now watching platforms such as Netflix via streaming and smart TVs, the BBC is backing plans to deliver programmes solely across the internet and switch off Freeview transmissions, which are received through aerials.
The switch would save the UK’s public service broadcasters (the BBC, ITV, Channels 4 and 5) costs they incur in transmitting Digital Terrestrial Television (DTT) to a dwindling Freeview audience. The frequency spectrum that would be freed up could then be sold to mobile network operators to improve phone coverage.
However campaigners warn that 1.8 million homes could still be reliant on Freeview to watch TV in 2035, with the elderly, disabled and those on low incomes among those either unable to access high-speed broadband or afford the cost.
Cost of ‘free’ TV could rise above £500
The additional expense for those who do not currently subscribe to high-speed broadband could see the cost of “free” TV – a broadband contract, plus the licence fee – rise to over £500 per year, according to TV industry consultant Christy Swords.
The elderly remain the most likely group to be without the internet, with over-85s eight times more likely to be non-users, according to Ofcom.
The nationwide survey for Broadcast 2040+ questioned 26,000 people and was weighted by age, gender and UK region. It could now prompt a rethink on axing DDT after identifying a serious risk to the licence fee and a potential slump in the BBC’s audience.
A petition opposing the switch-off now has more than 95,000 signatures. Charit Age UK said it would be “completely unacceptable” to make the shift before addressing major affordability factors that prevent older people from getting online.
EveryoneTV, the organisation that manages Freeview, said 900,000 homes are completely reliant on Freeview/DTT today, and do not have any broadband.
A majority of those questioned in the poll, 53 per cent, said the BBC should be available to everyone without needing an internet connection.
Nearly three quarters believed terrestrial television should continue until at least the mid-2040s, with many supporting its retention well beyond that point – at a cost equivalent to 1 or 2 per cent of the BBC’s revenue, campaigners say.
Sixteen per cent expected the licence fee to be reduced if the BBC went online-only. Twenty per cent thought the fee should stay the same in the online switch.
The outgoing BBC Director-General, Tim Davie, has expressed support for a switch to internet-only television in the 2030s.
Last year, he told MPs that the timing of switchover was a matter for the Government, and the BBC would not endorse a plan that left a group of viewers unable to receive its programmes.
‘Wrong to coerce people into new costs to watch TV’
Elizabeth Anderson, CEO of the Digital Poverty Alliance, said: “Moving television online only risks deepening digital poverty and exclusion. Millions of households simply cannot afford a high-speed fixed broadband connection.
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“It is wrong to coerce people into taking on new monthly costs simply to carry on watching television.” Anderson called on the Government to retain DTT into the 2040s.
Dennis Reed, director of Silver Voices, which campaigns on behalf of senior citizens, said: “There is growing public opposition to forcing viewers online. If the BBC and Government use the Charter Review to accelerate a move away from terrestrial broadcasting, they risk damaging the BBC itself by cutting off audiences, weakening support for the licence fee, and pushing the corporation towards a cliff-edge in public trust and universality.”
Swords, a former ITV executive who is a consultant for Arqiva, which manages the UK broadcast infrastructure, said: “As many as one million homes will need to get connected to broadband for the first time. They will disproportionately be old – who watch disproportionately more BBC – and poor.
“To guarantee BBC universality – and free TV with no additional subscription – Freeview needs to be extended, not switched off.”
Swords warned that some people who currently access streaming services on their TV “may have to junk your set-top box and buy a new one. You may also need to upgrade your broadband to remove data limits or improve download speeds.”
The BBC was approached for comment. A source said: “There is no deadline or cliff-edge. We understand the concerns around ensuring that the right conditions are in place for such a transition, which is why early clarity from the Government on the path forward is essential.
“The BBC is committed to universal public service and we would never have a plan – or support one – that excluded any audience.”
The total number of homes that either have no broadband, or do have broadband but are not using it to connect to IPTV (TV over the internet), is 2.9 million, Everyone TV said. Most homes without broadband have a landline, which should be transferred to IPTV by 2027.
A DCMS spokesperson said: “We are committed to ensuring that no one is left behind as TV viewing increasingly moves to online platforms.”
“That is why the Government is currently working across the TV sector on a long-term sustainable approach to TV distribution in the UK. This will include a decision, as soon as possible, on whether to extend the current commitment to digital terrestrial television beyond 2034.”
A report commissioned by the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS) estimates that by 2035, 1.8 million homes will still depend on Freeview unless action is taken to connect them to IPTV.
New analysis for Sky TV found that the UK can move fully to internet-delivered TV in the 2030s, if the Government sets a clear timetable and invests in targeted help for those most at risk of digital exclusion. Around 330,000 (2.2 per cent) of households would need some kind of help to transition, it found.
The Future TV Taskforce, a group made up of the UK’s public service broadcasters, said transitioning to TV over the internet in the mid-2030s would help “close the digital divide”.
A spokesperson added that the “right conditions would need to be in place for any transition to go ahead, ensuring no one is left behind and audiences can continue to access our programming”. Switching to internet delivery would be “more cost effective, meaning public service broadcasters can prioritise investment in high-quality UK content for the nation rather than distribution”.
The Digital Poverty Alliance and Silver Voices are partners of the Broadcast 2040+ campaign, which commissioned the poll and backs retaining DTT signals into the 2040s.
Conservative MP David Mundell a former secretary of state for Scotland, said: “The BBC’s strength has always been its ability to reach everyone, regardless of income or location. Forcing BBC television online only would cut many viewers off from its services and weaken public support for the licence fee.
“If the BBC moves prematurely towards an online only future, the consequences could include reduced viewing, weakened licence fee support and millions of people losing access to television altogether.”
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