President Donald Trump has declined to say whether the US would take action against Iran, as it builds up military forces in the region, but there are signs that things could be coming to a head, one way or the other.
Asked by reporters on Saturday evening what his “final decision” would be on an attack on Iran, Trump appeared to give it a final ultimatum.
“I certainly can’t tell you that, but we do have very big, powerful ships heading in that direction, as you know. I can’t tell you, you know. But I hope they negotiate something that’s acceptable,” Trump said.
He also told reporters that Iran is “talking to” the US, while Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, said a possible framework for negotiations was progressing.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Sunday that a US attack would spark a conflict in the Middle East.
“The Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,” Khamenei told Iran’s Tasnim news agency.
US build up of strength in the region
The US has been steadily moving military assets into the Middle East.
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, along with other naval, air power and defensive assets have entered the region, after Trump warned last week that a “massive Armada” was heading towards Iran.
At least 33 US military aircraft designed for insurgence operations and missile strikes have also flown to positions allowing for an attack on Iran, a comprehensive analysis of open-source information by The i Paper revealed on Friday.
Trump has previously threatened to retaliate against Iran if it does not make nuclear concessions or end the repression of domestic protesters. The US launched air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last year.
Jonathan Hill, a professor of international history at King’s College London, told The i Paper last week that any armed action by the US would most likely take the form of missile strikes against military or security service targets.
“It is possible that US aircraft might also be involved, but this is less likely because of the risk that would inevitably be posed to American pilots,” he said.Strikes on military targets “could take place at almost any time and with short notice”, he added.
General Amir Hatami, Iran’s army commander-in-chief, has warned the US that Iran has “fingers on the trigger” and is at “a high level of military and defensive readiness”.
He also said: “We are closely watching enemies’ movement in the region. They are under complete surveillance by us… If they make a mistake, without doubt they will endanger their security, the security of their forces, the security of the region, and the security of the criminal Zionist regime,” the last being a reference to US regional ally Israel.
Iran launches naval exercises
Iran is expected to begin a two-day, live-fire naval exercise on Sunday in the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route through which 20 per cent of global oil and gas flows.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the plans earlier this week, with Mohammad Akbarzadeh, the political deputy of the IRGC’s naval forces, appearing to say that the Strait could be closed by the exercises.
“Iran has real-time intelligence over the Strait of Hormuz, above and below the surface, and the security of this strategic passage depends on Tehran’s decisions,” he said. “We do not want the world economy to suffer, but the Americans and their supporters will not benefit from a war they start.”
After the US warned Iran against any “unsafe and unprofessional behaviour” near its forces, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, hit out, saying: “The US military is now attempting to dictate how our Powerful Armed Forces should conduct target practice in their own turf.”
A US naval strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has deployed to Middle Eastern waters (Photo: Zachary Pearson/US navy/AFP)Would Iran be emboldened if Trump pulls back?
Trump has repeatedly warned that Iran must negotiate a deal over its nuclear programme to avoid airstrikes. On Saturday he was asked whether Tehran would be emboldened if the US backed off the threat.
“Well, some people think that and some people don’t… But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us,” he said.
Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, has warned US officials that avoiding strikes on Iran now could have repercussions, Axios reported.
He reportedly said during a private briefing in Washington DC on Friday that: “At this point, if this doesn’t happen, it will only embolden the regime.”
A second Gulf official, who attended the meeting, reportedly warned that while a US strike could bring “bad outcomes,” failing to act would leave “Iran stronger.”
Bilal Saab, an associate fellow at Chatham House, previously told The i Paper that: “By issuing multiple warnings against the regime, he has essentially cornered himself. To stay credible, he must attack.”
Iran, under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could be emboldened by any backing down by the US (Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/Reuters/Wana News Agency)Experts have previously warned that inaction by the US could lead to the country continuing to develop nuclear weapons.
After the US strikes last year, Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at think-tank Royal United Services Institute, said strikes on Iran’s military sites would only convince Iran to continue to develop nuclear weapons.
She said at the time that “the fact that the US has – for the first time – carried out direct attacks on Iranian territory may very well result in a decision in Tehran that the only option they have for an effective nuclear deterrent is to produce a nuclear weapons capability”.
Is the West supporting Trump?
On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said he supported Trump’s approach towards Iran, and said it is vital that Iranian leadership is not able to develop nuclear weapons. He said the UK would support further US strikes on the country.
“The goal or the aim here is that Iran shouldn’t be able to develop nuclear weapons and that is hugely important and, of course, we need to deal with the fact they are repressing protesters, killing protesters,” Starmer told the BBC.
“It is grotesque what is happening so that is where our focus is and we are working with allies to that end.”
At the same time, the EU has not formally backed military action against Iran.
But while the bloc does not appear to actively support Trump’s actions, it designated the IRGC a terrorist group last week over its crackdown on domestic protesters.
The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, quickly followed suit, saying that all EU military forces were now terrorist groups in the eyes of the Islamic Republic.
UAE ‘trying to ‘de-escalate tensions’
Qatar, Iran’s maritime neighbour, is leading diplomatic efforts in the region to try to prevent the crisis from escalating.
Qatar’s foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, held talks in Iran on Saturday with several Iranian officials to try to “de-escalate tensions in the region”, according to its foreign ministry.
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In a statement, Qatar called for peaceful solutions to the situation and stressed the need to spare the region’s people from the consequences of further escalation.
It also said it was continuing to coordinate with “brotherly” and friendly countries to address differences through diplomatic means.
However, tensions remain high and the next days could prove decisive.
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