The 2025-26 college basketball season is moving quickly, as there are only about 10 games left in the regular season for most SEC programs.
We now have a legitimate sample size for these teams on both sides of the ball. We know strengths and weaknesses while also having a pretty good idea about the upside for each of these programs this spring.
With that in mind, let’s break down what the data — and prediction markets — have to say about the SEC regular season title race.
Predicting the SEC Basketball regular season champion
There’s a clear leader in the clubhouse — Florida. However, several other teams are not far behind. Here’s a look at the live prediction market odds on Kalshi:
Florida
Although the Gators aren’t in first place as of this writing (that honor belongs to Texas A&M), the defending national champions are far-and-away the favorite on Kalshi to win the SEC regular-season title. Per Kalshi’s market place, Florida has a 46% chance to take home that hardware.
Looking at the advanced stats, it makes sense. Florida is the highest-ranked SEC team in KenPom at No. 11. The Gators are also exceptionally well balanced — they’re top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency, 1 of only 2 SEC teams that can say that.
Florida’s schedule does toughen up, however. It still has 6 Quad 1 games remaining, with 4 of those set to come on the road. The key for the Gators will be Xaivian Lee. The Princeton transfer got off to a slow start this season before finding his groove in December. However, Lee is back to struggling in conference play with a true shooting percentage of just 52% against SEC foes. UF needs more efficiency from Lee and Boogie Fland if it’s going to reach its ceiling.
Arkansas
The Razorbacks have emerged as the next-closest challenger, according to the latest Kalshi odds. Arkansas is tied with Florida in the loss column entering Wednesday and is coming off of a big road win over Oklahoma on Tuesday. Arkansas has an 18% chance to win the SEC regular season title, per Kalshi.
Arkansas has a pretty optimal schedule setup the rest of the way. The Razorbacks have 5 road games left, but only 2 come against SEC contenders — Alabama and Florida. All 5 remaining home games are winnable, too.
If there’s something to be concerned about, it’s on the defensive end. The Razorbacks are outside of the top-50 nationally in defensive efficiency and are dead last in the SEC in effective field goal percentage allowed during conference play.
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Texas A&M
The first-place Aggies are a bit of an afterthought in this conversation for a simple reason: the advanced metrics aren’t buying Texas A&M to the level that the standings currently show. While the Aggies are 6-1 in the SEC standings, they’re not even in the top-30 of KenPom’s national rankings. A whopping 6 SEC teams are ahead of A&M in KenPom and a seventh — Kentucky — is just 1 spot behind.
So is Texas A&M’s run sustainable? I’d lean toward no. The Aggies are outside the top 40 in offensive and defensive efficiency, suggesting they’re closer to a bubble team than an SEC contender. Their offensive profile is optimal — No. 2 in 2-point attempt distance and No. 29 in 3-point attempt rate — but the talent may be lagging a bit behind what they need to make some real noise in the SEC this season.
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt woke up a week ago with a 3-3 record in SEC play after a blowout loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville. It looked like Vandy’s SEC regular season title hopes were over at that point, but the Commodores responded with a 32-point win over Mississippi State and a 25-point win over Kentucky.
Because Vanderbilt has 3 SEC losses already, including 1 to a fellow contender in Florida, it will have an uphill battle to get the No. 1 seed. But statistically, Vandy has a very strong case as the best team in this league. The Commodores are top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They force teams into long 2-pointers (fourth nationally in 2-point distance) and are an elite 3-point defense (8th nationally in 3-point % allowed).
Offensively, Vanderbilt is led by a breakout guard in Tyler Tanner and an excellent shooting guard in Duke Miles. Tyler Nickel is one of the best off-ball shooters in the country (46%) and Vandy has excellent defensive personnel across the board. Per KenPom, Vanderbilt is favored to win every remaining regular season game until the finale against Tennessee on March 7.
SEC Championship prediction
Going through this exercise has made one thing clear — every team in the SEC is flawed. There’s no slam-dunk contender. Florida can’t shoot. Arkansas can’t defend. Texas A&M’s guards are inefficient. Vanderbilt has 3 losses already. Kentucky is too injured. The list could go on and on.
Asked to identify the SEC’s regular season champion, I’d pick Florida. But if I’m taking the current betting odds and prediction markets into account? I like Vanderbilt. As of publication, you can get better than 5-to-1 odds on Vandy to win the conference. It would require a hot streak for the Commodores and at least a few more losses for Florida, but I think the odds are greater than the current market would suggest.
Predicting the SEC’s regular season champion Saturday Down South.
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