The college basketball season is approaching February, and in the SEC, that means the grind truly begins. Following a chaotic Saturday of hoops on January 24, the conference standings have begun to crystallize, separating the contenders from those who are currently hyperventilating into a paper bag about what awaits them on Selection Sunday.
While Texas A&M sits pretty at the top (6-1) and Arkansas continues to look like a potential juggernaut under John Calipari, several blue bloods and rising programs are staring at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Worse yet, some teams have little to no hope of making the March Madness field less than halfway through the SEC season.
Here is our official SEC Panic Meter, ranking the 5 teams currently feeling the most desperation as we head toward February.
1. Oklahoma Sooners (11-9 Overall, 1-6 SEC)
Panic Level: CODE RED
If you listen closely in Norman, you can hear the sound of a season slipping through the floorboards. The Oklahoma Sooners entered Saturday on a 5-game skid, desperately needing a win against Mizzou to stop the bleeding. Instead, they suffered a soul-crushing 88-87 loss in Columbia that saw the Tigers connect on 2 buzzer-beaters — 1 at the end of regulation and the other to win the game in overtime.
The Diagnosis: Oklahoma is currently the owner of a 6-game losing streak. In a league as deep as the SEC, once you lose your footing, it is incredibly difficult to stop the slide. The Sooners are 1-6 in conference play, and while many of their losses have been close (like Saturday’s 1-point heartbreaker), the selection committee doesn’t give trophies for “almost.”
The Problem: Closing games. Porter Moser’s squad has the talent to stay competitive, but it lacks the “alpha” scorer to get a bucket when the lights are brightest. The Path Forward: The Sooners need to steal a win against a top-tier opponent (like upcoming Texas A&M or Florida) just to reclaim some dignity. At 11-9 overall, their at-large hopes are effectively on life support.2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-10, 2-5)
Panic Level: DANGEROUSLY HIGH
Chris Jans has built a reputation on “Stark Vegas” being a place where offensive flow goes to die. Usually, that’s a compliment to his defense. This year, however, it’s the Bulldogs’ own offense that has flatlined. Following Saturday’s results, State has now lost 5 games in a row.
The Diagnosis: The Bulldogs are sitting at .500 overall. In the modern SEC, having a record that isn’t significantly above water by February is a death sentence for tournament hopes.
The Problem: A total lack of perimeter spacing. Teams are packing the paint and daring the Bulldogs to shoot, and that dare is paying off to the tune of a 29.8% 3-point field goal shooting performance by Mississippi State. That’s second-worst in the SEC, ahead of only Florida. The Path Forward: The schedule doesn’t get easier. If the Bulldogs don’t find a way to win 2 of their next 3 (at LSU, at Mizzou, vs. Arkansas), they’ll be playing for a high seed in the NIT rather than a spot in the Big Dance.3. LSU Tigers (13-7, 1-6)
Panic Level: SINKING SHIP
LSU’s 12-1 start to the season feels like a fever dream at this point. Since the calendar flipped to conference play, AKA when LSU started playing teams with a pulse, the Tigers have gone 1-6. (Here’s where I reluctantly note that the 1 win was against my alma mater, Mizzou, who continues to be a baffling team to watch.) Saturday’s 85-81 loss to Arkansas showed that LSU can keep up with the big boys, but it can’t actually beat them.
The Diagnosis: Matt McMahon has improved the talent level in Baton Rouge, but the chemistry seems to evaporate the moment the Tigers face SEC-level teams. Being tied for last in the league with Oklahoma is a place not many expected this team to be 3 weeks ago.
The Problem: Defensive consistency. LSU gave up 85 points to the Hogs on Saturday and has struggled to string together stops in the second half of games. The Path Forward: LSU is 13-7. The Tigers aren’t dead yet, but they are in a must-win scenario for virtually every home game remaining.4. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-6, 3-3)
Panic Level: FRUSTRATED CONFUSION
Alabama? Yes, Alabama. While 3-3 in the league isn’t a disaster for most programs, it is a massive disappointment for a Tide team that began the season with Final Four aspirations. Saturday’s 79-73 loss to Tennessee at home was a punch to the gut for Nate Oats.
The Diagnosis: The Tide are currently the Jekyll and Hyde of the SEC. They have the offensive firepower to beat anyone in the country, but their defense is often — to put it politely — optional. Charles Bediako was supposed to help with that. He might still, but Saturday wasn’t a great start for the Tide.
The Problem: This team relies far too heavily on the 3-pointer. When it’s falling, the Tide look unstoppable; when it’s not, they look like a team that could lose to anyone at any time. The Path Forward: Alabama needs to prove it can win a physical, low-scoring game. The Tide have to win a game where they shoot under 30% from deep by actually guarding someone.5. Texas Longhorns (12-8, 3-4)
Panic Level: SIMMERING
Texas gets the final spot on the meter, even though the Longhorns had the best Saturday of the bunch. Their 87-67 blowout win over No. 21 Georgia was exactly what the doctor ordered, but it doesn’t erase the 2-4 start they had prior to that game.
The Diagnosis: The Longhorns are currently 12-8. In the SEC, 12-8 is the definition of “bubble team.” One more 3-game losing streak and they are officially out of the picture.
The Problem: Consistency from their supporting cast. Dailyn Swain (26 points) and Tramon Mark (23 points) were elite on Saturday, but can they get some help moving forward? Keep an eye on big man Matas Vokietaitis. He’s stringing some strong performances together recently. The Path Forward: They travel to Auburn on Wednesday. If they can win that, the panic meter drops to a 2. If they get blown out, we’re right back to the emergency room.SEC Basketball Panic Meter: Ranking the 5 teams with the most desperation Saturday Down South.
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