Sir Keir Starmer found himself in political Zugzwang, a chess player at a disadvantage because of an obligation to make a move. There were no good outcomes.
Starmer used the steadily dwindling reserves of his authority to block Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham from attempting to return to Parliament as MP for the newly vacated seat of Denton and Gorton. The alternative was months of speculation about when Burnham would strike against him.
Now a significant portion of the Labour left believes Starmer has doomed himself to an even speedier demise. They claim the Prime Minister’s decision will foster greater internal conflict in the months ahead, and make the Government’s chances of getting changes to SEND in schools or welfare reform through Parliament even harder.
Backbencher Kim Johnson highlighted this overwrought handwringing when she told Times Radio on Monday morning: “Keir Starmer now needs to consider his own position as leader of this party.”
The left is worried this weekend’s events have made Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s coronation unavoidable because there is no other viable candidate to succeed Starmer. Some in Downing Street view this as better than the party swinging back to the left.
However, Streeting’s inevitable succession only works as an argument if the challenge to Starmer comes before the soft left of the party can coalesce around a viable alternative.
Westminster Kremlinologists sometimes talk up the organising power of the Tribune Group, which boasts over 100 Labour MPs and peers on its WhatsApp group. This is the forum, they argue, for an alternative leader to galvanise support.
But this is not an organising bloc in the traditional sense, more a loose alliance of MPs whose interests or views sometimes overlap. It has never yet endorsed a candidate. Whether it becomes the forum for a challenger candidate is the next question.
Nonetheless, some individuals on the soft left have emerged from this weekend’s internal Labour circus in a stronger position.
Burnham himself is the most obvious; now seen as a martyr by the unions and members who are trying to overturn the NEC’s decision with a private letter urging a different decision.
Former Deputy Leader Angela Rayner also comes out well, having thrown her weight behind a challenger to Starmer to the delight of the left. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, who has ruled himself out as a leadership candidate, has emerged as a kingmaker by backing Burnham at a Fabian conference on Saturday.
Lucy Powell, the party’s deputy leader, who acted as a trusted emissary between No 10 and Team Burnham over the weekend to try to find a face-saving compromise for both sides, also scores brownie points with the left. She was the only one to vote in favour of her Manchester ally at the NEC sub-committee on Sunday. Given the NEC committee was stacked with Starmer loyalists, Powell’s vote was cast arguably with little jeopardy, given the decision was already a foregone conclusion.
But there is also a winner on the right of the party: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Appearing on TV on Sunday morning, ahead of the crunch meeting, Mahmood distanced herself from Starmer and his key aides, saying she took Burnham’s assurances he wanted to return to Parliament to help the Government “at face value” and as chairwoman of the sub-committee, used the convention she would not vote as cover for remaining neutral.
While Starmer has prevented Burnham from proceeding, at least until another parliamentary seat becomes vacant, he has also shown he lacks the authority or arguments to convince both Labour and the country he is its future. Mahmood shrewdly recognised this.
If there were winners, there is one clear loser: Starmer. What was a clear show of his organisational strength at the NEC is also a demonstration of his political weakness.
Starmer had already admitted there was a shadow leadership race going on when his aides reacted to The i Paper’s revelations about plots back in November with a botched drive-by against Streeting.
The Prime Minister was out on Monday defending the decision on the grounds that it would have diverted resources away from Labour’s local election campaign. “Yes, there is a fight, but that fight is with Reform and we all need to line up together to be in that fight, all playing our part,” he said.
That should be more worrying for Labour. The Prime Minister has read and believes the polls. He knows how unpopular the Government is. The ultimate winner here, if Starmer has just handed him his ninth seat in Parliament, is Nigel Farage.
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