We look ahead to Monday’s Premier League clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium with our Everton vs Leeds prediction and preview. Can Everton follow up their impressive win from last week when they host a Leeds side also battling their way up the table?
Everton vs Leeds: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Everton strong favourites to win this match, with 52.4% of the pre-match simulations resulting in a home victory. Everton have lost just one of their last 16 home games against Leeds in the league, a 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park in November 2020. Leeds are looking to complete a league double over Everton for the first time since the 1990-91 season.Matchday 23 of the 2025-26 Premier League season concludes at Hill Dickinson Stadium with a clash between two of English football’s historic giants, as Everton and Leeds United face off on Merseyside.
Everton bounced back from disappointing results at home against Brentford and Wolves with an impressive 1-0 victory at in-form Aston Villa last Sunday, and will hope to maintain that form against a Leeds side who were also 1-0 winners last weekend.
Thierno Barry was Everton’s hero at Villa Park, firing home from close range in the 59th minute after Dwight McNeil’s curling strike was parried into his path by Emiliano Martínez. After scoring just once across his first 18 Premier League appearances in David Moyes’ side, Barry has now netted three times in his last four games.
After his £26 million arrival from Villarreal over the summer, Barry is now Everton’s joint-top scorer in the league this term, with four goals alongside Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Iliman Ndiaye.
At the other end of the pitch, Jordan Pickford was forced into five saves as Everton kept their ninth clean sheet of the season – only Arsenal have collected more in the Premier League this term, with 11.
The day prior, Leeds secured a narrow victory of their own, continuing a strong run of home form that has seen them pick up 11 points from the last 15 available at Elland Road. The Whites edged Fulham 1-0 thanks to Lukas Nmecha’s injury-time strike.
Meeting Ethan Ampadu’s cross on the volley with 90 minutes and seven seconds on the clock, Nmecha’s goal was Leeds’ first stoppage-time winner in a Premier League game since Jack Harrison’s against Brentford on the final day of the 2021-22 season.
Nmecha has now scored the opener in four of Leeds’ Premier League games this season – including the winner against Everton in August – and is averaging a league goal every 122 minutes this season, the fourth-best rate among players with 500+ minutes.
However, away from home, only Burnley (5) and Wolves (3) have won fewer Premier League points than Leeds (6), while only Bournemouth (30) and Burnley (27) have conceded more goals than the 24 shipped by Daniel Farke’s side on the road.
In fact, Leeds’ only clean sheet in their last 22 away games came on Merseyside, drawing 0-0 at Anfield against reigning champions Liverpool on New Year’s Day.
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Despite this, Everton have picked up just seven points across their last seven Premier League home games, with four of their last five wins coming away from home and five of their last six clean sheets also being won on the road.
The Toffees have suffered from a raft of injuries and suspensions in recent weeks, and now have seen Jack Grealish ruled out for the foreseeable future following an ankle injury that could bring a premature end to his loan from Manchester City.
In better news for Moyes – who saw in-form James Garner pen a new deal with the club on Friday – Dewsbury-Hall, Jarrad Branthwaite and Charly Alcaraz are all back in training and could feature on Monday.
Everton also have Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye back following their success with Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations, but Michael Keane remains unavailable as he completes his three-match suspension.
Leeds midfielder Anton Stach is set for a late fitness test after missing the win over Fulham with a hip injury. Jaka Bijol remains sidelined after also being absent against Fulham, as does Daniel James, but Farke is hopeful Gabriel Gudmundsson will feature following an adductor problem sustained in midweek.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is set to face Everton for the first time since leaving the club for Leeds in the summer. The 28-year-old has nine goals in 20 Premier League appearances for his new club this season.
Everton vs Leeds Head-to-Head
These two sides met on the opening weekend of the season in another Monday evening fixture, as Leeds won 1-0 at Elland Road to mark their top-flight return with three points.
A game sparse of chances looked set to end goalless until a penalty was given to the hosts for handball against Everton’s James Tarkowski, and Nmecha stepped up to score the decisive spot-kick on his Leeds debut.
Moyes has only managed five home games against Leeds in his lengthy Premier League career, but he’s won four of them, including both in his first stint as Everton manager in February and September 2003.
Everton vs Leeds Prediction
Despite Everton and Leeds both winning 1-0 in their most recent league matches respectively, the difference between the two sides’ predictions in the Opta supercomputer is stark.
From 10,000 pre-match simulations, Everton claimed victory in 52.4% of the outcomes, even though Moyes’ side are winless in their last three league games at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
At 24.3%, a draw is even seen as more likely than a Leeds win on Merseyside, with the Whites victorious in just 23.3% of the pre-match simulations after a run of eight games without a win away from home this term.
Everton vs Leeds Predicted Lineups
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Nathan Patterson, Jake O’Brien, James Tarkowski, Vitalii Mykolenko, Merlin Röhl, James Garner, Harrison Armstrong, Iliman Ndiaye, Dwight McNeil, Thierno Barry.
Head coach: David Moyes
Leeds United: Karl Darlow, James Justin, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Ethan Ampadu, Ilia Gruev, Brenden Aaronson, Jayden Bogle, Noah Okafor, Willy Gnonto, Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Monday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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