Angela Rayner will back Andy Burnham being allowed to stand as an MP in a vacant Manchester seat despite concerns he could undermine Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership.
Even before deciding whether – or not – to stand as an MP, Andy Burnham’s deliberations over whether to quit as Mayor of Greater Manchester to stand in the vacant Gorton and Denton seat have sparked a civil war in the Labour Party.
Starmer loyalists have moved to block his candidacy over concerns he could challenge the Prime Minister while those on the left of the party have said there should not be a “London stitch up”. Late Friday Labour published the timetable for applications, giving Burnham, as a mayor, until 5 pm on Saturday to make up his mind. Other candidates will have until Sunday evening to apply.
It is understood Rayner, the former deputy prime minister , who was forced to resign last year for not paying enough tax on a flat she bought in Hove, is set to declare her support for the Mayor of Greater Manchester at Labour’s north west regional conference on Saturday.
The prime minister’s allies have been lobbying Labour’s National Executive Committee [NEC], the body which selects party candidates to block Burnham.
Challenge to Starmer could come as soon as May
But on Friday there was a counter-rally from the party’s union affiliates and local councillors who want a viable soft-left candidate available to replace Starmer in the event of a leadership election.
Labour’s left wing fears that Angela Rayner, who quit government after failing to pay the correct stamp duty on a property purchase, may not be rehabilitated by May.
That’s the working assumption for the timing of a challenge to Starmer if the party performs badly in local elections in England and fails miserably in Cardiff and Edinburgh. Health Secretary Wes Streeting is seen as to the right of the Labour Party.
“In the absence of Ange we need someone in place and ready to go and that person is Andy,” one Labour councillor who has made their feelings clear to the NEC, told The i Paper on Friday. “We can’t have a Wes coronation.”
A Labour source said the “appetite” in the party is “for change” in general rather than for Burnham specifically.
He has “ardent backers” across Labour, they said, but has the “least purchase” among MPs when compared with unions and members.
Andrea Egan, the leader of UK’s biggest union, Unison said local party members in Gorton and Denton should decide. “We’ve seen enough control-freakery in the Labour Party and it has done our movement nothing but harm,” she wrote on X.
While Egan is a Corbynite who was expelled from Labour in 2022, Unison is affiliated to Labour and has two seats on the NEC.
There were also fears a candidate could be imposed on Gorton and Denton by the NEC in London whose membership is weighted towards Starmer’s allies.
‘Huge amount of lobbying’ on both sides
Jo White, the chair of the Red Wall Group of Labour MPs, said on Friday: “Let the north decide who their Labour candidate should be for the Gorton & Denton by election. A London stitch-up will be a disaster for Labour.”
Connor Naismith, the Labour MP for Crewe and Nantwich added on X: “Any decision made to limit the choice would be wrong.”
A source inside the NEC told The i Paper: “There’s a huge amount of lobbying going on both sides to the NEC; to allow him to stand and those against.”
Those against Burnham standing say the cost of contesting the mayoralty of Greater Manchester at the same time as running a by-election and local elections would be in the millions of pounds. Others say he would be letting down his current electorate to satisfy his own ambitions.
A source in a Manchester Constituency Labour Party said their group is “split between ‘we want our lad to do well and we’re not massively happy with how things are going at the moment’” … against another consideration which is… “’Hold on a minute. You can’t just walk out of a serious public office and damn the consequences’. Even those who are fond of him aren’t necessarily egging him on at this stage.”
A Labour MP, who counts themselves as a fan of Burnham, said they did not know if running in the by-election would be the right course. “I think he’s great but also think it’s a big distraction we really don’t need,” they said.
By-election would pose challenges for Burnham
Running a mayoralty election comes with “a cost to the taxpayer, and there’s certainly a cost to any political party,” according to the source in the NEC. There is a “massive risk that we would lose one of the fastest growing economies [Manchester] in the UK to Reform, and I think that does risk having a real-world impact, aside from distracting from the other electoral efforts we’ve got going on this Spring”
Labour is also weighing up whether without Burnham the party may lose Gorton and Denton. Ex-Labour minister Andrew Gwynne said on Thursday he is resigning as an MP in the seat after suffering “significant ill health” and being advised by his GP not to return to work.
The Britain Predicts forecast for Gorton and Denton currently suggests a gain for Reform, with Labour six points behind and the Greens a close third. However, Burnham polls around 2 points higher than Labour nationally, making him the party’s best chance of holding the seat.
There is a chance the by-election could turn into a circus if Reform’s high-profile head of policy Zia Yusuf decides to stand.
Green Party leader Zack Polanski is not currently planning to stand as a candidate. While no final decision has been taken, party sources said Polanski is keen to allow local members to choose their candidate and hopes to fight a parliamentary seat in London.
On Friday rumours circled veteran pro-Gaza candidate and former MP George Galloway might throw his trademark fedora hat into the ring.
Issues ‘existential’ for Starmer and Burnham
The frontrunner to beat Burnham as the Labour candidate has emerged as Bev Craig, the soft-left leader of Manchester City Council.
According to party sources, Craig is popular in the city for her efforts on economic regeneration and work on local government co-operation. “She may also benefit from the anyone-but-Andy movement,” a party source added.
There was one winner out of the attention on Burnham – Streeting. “No 10 can point their guns at someone else for a change,” an MP ally of the health secretary said.
Yet, even as Labour tears itself apart over whether Burnham should or shouldn’t stand, Labour insiders acknowledged the stakes are higher than just one by-election.
A Labour source said the dilemma of whether to act and when was both existential for Burnham and Starmer.
“Blocking him via the NEC will be looked on poorly even by non-fans but the problem for No10 is that if becomes an MP its matter of when not if [he presents a challenge to the PM].
None of the other challengers could beat him with the members. This is also existential for Burnham, if he ducks it his moment will be gone, he’ll look weak.”
Lucy Powell also set to enter row
The situation could also backfire on Starmer if Burnham is blocked from standing, according to John McTernan, former advisor to Prime Minister Tony Blair, told The i Paper.
“When is the Labour Party collectively going to accept that being on 17 per cent in the polls is a crisis, and it’s an existential crisis,” he told The i Paper.
“If you block him and Labour loses the by-election then Andy is even stronger. And in Greater Manchester, if you have a by-election and say it is dominated by ‘Do you want to send a message to the Prime Minister?’ There is no one better than Andy. Starmer became a lame duck last year when he tried and failed to kill Wes in the attempted drive by.”
Senior Labour figures are attending a Fabian Society conference on Saturday. Some including Lucy Powell, the current deputy leader, are likely to comment on the row. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and Streeting are also due to speak.
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