It seems like any time Artemi Panarin’s name has come up with the phrase “potentially available” near it, Blackhawks fans have had the Jackson 5 ready to go.
Yes, the New York Rangers are entering a likely 6-7 teardown period during which it appears any/all of their pending free agents will be available for trade (maybe some of their veterans with term as well). The reports that Artemi Panarin, in the final year of his contract, will not receive another contract from the Blue Shirts has led to… you guessed, it, Blackhawks fans wanting him back.
Plenty of thinkpieces are starting to pop up about whether the Blackhawks should bring him back. So let’s just dive right in, shall we?
Blackhawks big game hunting? Now?
One week ago, I wrote about the Blackhawks potentially being mentioned in/involved with big-ticket trade rumors (at that time it was surrounding Vancouver center Elias Pettersson). In that piece, I shared my four critical questions that need to be answered for a deal to make sense:
Could the Blackhawks be interested? Can the Blackhawks afford the incoming cap hit? Do the Blackhawks have assets to make an interesting offer? Does the player fit what the Blackhawks are building?To answer those, again, in Cliff Notes form: the easiest to check off is affording Panarin’s cap hit. Yes, they can. Do the Blackhawks have assets to make an interesting offer? Sure. But the first and fourth questions are the most important: is there interest? And does the player fit what the Blackhawks are building?
Because I could see this conversation coming a mile away, I addressed potential Panarin wishes in that piece last week, saying:
For those who will inevitably ask because I mentioned the Rangers: I’m not a big fan of the idea of bringing Artemi Panarin back, either. Not unless he helps get [Roman] Kantserov off to a good start and that’s a significant part of the rationale. And even then, I would wait for free agency this summer and not give up assets when he’s absolutely leaving the Rangers.
But let’s dig in a little further with my concerns about bringing the former Blackhawks star back to Chicago at this time. Here are the three biggest concerns I have with any thoughts of a reunion.
Speed issue
The Blackhawks have been building a team that’s fast. That is not a word I would generally use to describe Panarin. According to NHL Edge, Panarin max skating speed this year is 21.88 mph (lower half of the league). Panarin ranks in the 53rd percentile in speed bursts between 20-22 mph (44) and in the 70th percentile in 18-20 mph speed bursts (288).
For the sake of comparison:
Connor Bedard — 22.36 max speed (61st percentile), 103 20-22 mph bursts (91st percentile) Frank Nazar — 22.69 max speed (79th percentile), 79 20-22 mph bursts (81st percentile) Oliver Moore — 23.00 max speed (88th percentile), 99 20-22 mph bursts (89th percentile)Now consider Bedard, Nazar and Moore’s percentiles in number of 20-22 mph bursts is gross; none of the three has played in every game. Panarin has appeared in 50 of 51 games for the Rangers entering Thursday.
Age
Panarin will turn 35 at the end of October, and I doubt he’s looking for a one-year deal if/when he hits free agency. With the Blackhawks potentially looking to inject more youth into their NHL lineup as soon as the end of this regular season with the potential of Anton Frondell and Sacha Boisvert being available, the team is going to be younger — and faster.
Again, the Blackhawks have signed older players the last few years as placeholders for when the youth movement begins matriculating to the NHL. They have graduated out of that stage of the rebuild. With Marek Vanacker and AJ Spellacy going pro next year — and possibly signing Kantserov as well — the likelihood that the Blackhawks will have a need in their top six for Panarin for more than one year is slim. And history tells us age is undefeated.
Other / Better options
Would it be fun to have Panarin sweaters be more than just a throwback? Sure. But we’ve seen the limited value nostalgia has on winning here before.
If the Blackhawks are going to mortgage future assets — picks and/or prospects — to bring in a player in a walk-year (or pending RFA), there are other players who would better fit the profile of their lineup construction in the coming years better.
Jason Robertson in Dallas is a prime example. IF Dallas makes him available before he needs a new contract as an RFA this summer (he’s eligible for UFA in 2027), he better fits the profile of a player who the Blackhawks could target and sign to a long-term extension. The IF here is significant, however. As is the reality that Dallas trading a player of this caliber inside their division feeling like the opportunity for an overpay by the buyer.
Similarly, Alex Tuch in Buffalo is younger and a better skater than Panarin. IF Buffalo makes him available — again, questionable — the Blackhawks might be able to make a deal there that helps both parties without necessarily mortgaging significant futures. The Sabres want/need to make the playoffs, so an in-season deal here would likely need to help them accomplish that goal while also helping them over the next few years.
Panarin is a free agent on July 1 (assuming he doesn’t sign an extension where he’s eventually dealt). He feels like the perfect rent-to-buy option for a team that’s either desperately trying to get into the playoffs for the first time in a while (Detroit?) or a team that feels they’re one star-level player away from making a deep run in this year’s postseason.
At present, the Chicago Blackhawks are not one player away from making a run to at least a conference final — and, in my opinion, Panarin wouldn’t be that one player.
If the Blackhawks are going to chase a big name, I would prefer it be someone other than the Breadman.
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