The most powerful Republican in the North Carolina Senate is trailing his 2026 primary opponent by 5 points in a poll released Tuesday, less than two months away from the March 3 contest.
Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger (R-Rockingham) trails Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page in the poll by Republican-aligned firm National Research Inc., due to a crushing deficit in his home county, where Page leads him by 30 points. He remains ahead in more populous Guilford County, with 40% support against Page’s 29%.
The poll, which surveyed 250 Republican primary voters in the district from Jan. 15 to Jan. 18, was commissioned by longtime GOP political consultant Marc Rotterman. Neither Rotterman nor National Research Inc. are affiliated with the Berger or Page campaigns.
“This race is a jump ball with a slight edge to Sam Page’s campaign,” Rotterman said in a statement. “The question is, can Sam Page compete financially with Senator Berger’s massive war chest, or is this a race where the base has already made up their mind on the incumbent?”
The Berger campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the results.
N.C. Senate leader Phil Berger (R-Rockingham) sits on the Senate floor during debate over a new Republican-led congressional map on Oct. 20, 2025. Voters in the National Research survey were more likely to say he “represents special interests in Raleigh” than that he “represents us.” (Photo: Galen Bacharier/NC Newsline)Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, said he remains skeptical that Page has the lead in the race. He noted that the National Research poll has a fairly limited sample size, and that its result is within the margin of error of 6.2%, meaning either candidate could be on top.
“If you apply that, you’d say this is a tied race,” he said. “It’s getting a clear and consistent signal that this is a very close race.”
Berger, who has led Senate Republicans for 21 years and the state Senate as a whole for 15, is deeply unpopular in Rockingham County, according to the poll. About 33% of residents surveyed have a favorable opinion of Berger, while 54% view him unfavorably, closely mirroring the margin in the race in Rockingham County
A key issue in the race, the National Research poll indicated, is casino gambling. Just 13% of those surveyed said they would be more likely to support a candidate who supports casino gambling in North Carolina, while 46% said they would be less likely to do so. In 2023, Berger led a high-profile push for a bill that would have brought casinos to a few rural North Carolina counties, including Rockingham.
That effort failed in part because it proved deeply unpopular among those counties’ residents — and the poll appears to indicate many voters have not forgotten Berger’s role. The National Research poll found that 43% of voters surveyed said Berger “represents special interests in Raleigh” against 24% who said Berger “represents us.”
By contrast, Page, who has been Rockingham County’s sheriff for 28 years, holds a high favorability rating in the views of surveyed voters. He was among the loudest voices opposing the casino proposal, calling it part of a “slippery slope” that would exacerbate social issues in the community.
“This is a very evangelical Christian district, and they’re just against gambling on principle,” Rotterman said in an interview. “For Page, he has an enormous amount of goodwill as you can see in his favorables, and I think that’s carried him so far.”
Prof. Chris Cooper (Photo: wcu.edu)A key question remains how unaffiliated voters, which number more than 24,000 in the district, will behave. Unaffiliated voters are less likely than affiliated voters to cast a ballot in primary elections. But if significantly more unaffiliated voters than usual vote in the Republican primary — especially Democratic-leaning constituents in Guilford Co. who may seek to oust Berger — the results of the race could be difficult for any poll to predict, Cooper said.
“I think this is the most important state Senate primary, maybe in North Carolina history,” Cooper said. “If we see an interruption of those patterns, then it’s anybody’s guess what happens.”
The National Research survey is the second recent poll to show Berger trailing in his primary, despite the endorsement of President Donald Trump and more than $2 million in ad buys by groups supporting his candidacy. A December poll by Opinion Diagnostics, affiliated with the Page campaign, showed the sheriff leading by 10 points in the race.
However, a January poll by Neighborhood Research and Media, led by Republican consultant and pollster Rick Shaftan, showed the reverse of the National Research poll, with Berger on top by 4 points among 325 Republican primary voters. That poll found only a 2o-point deficit for Berger in Rockingham and a larger lead in Guilford, where he led Page 46% to 18%.
In an exchange on social media site X with a pro-Berger account, Shaftan said negative ads against Page — which have slammed Page over investigations by the State Bureau of Investigation — were the top reason voters gave for an unfavorable view of Berger.
“If the anti-Page barrage continues for another 7+ weeks, it will drive a total FU vote against Berger and this race won’t be close,” Shaftan said on social media. “Your consultants are ripping you off. I love negative ads more than anyone, but all your ads now should be positive. The negative stuff just isn’t working.”
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