Opta Analyst’s Ryan Fagan has been a Baseball Hall of Fame voter since 2016. He breaks down the ballot he submitted this year.
I remember when I first started marking time in decades. I was in my late 20s, thinking back to something that had happened in high school and the thought hit me, “That happened a decade ago.” A decade? Ten full years? It was a bit jarring, to say the least.
That enormous amount of time was nearly incomprehensible when I was a kid who hadn’t added a second digit to my age. Now, 10 years ago was basically yesterday. And somehow, I’m at the stage in life where things can often be measured in multiple decades. Sheesh.
But this is neither the time nor place to burrow down into that rabbit hole of emotions and gratitude. I bring it up because this ballot for the Class of 2026 marks a full decade that I’ve had the honor and privilege of voting for the Baseball Hall of Fame. A decade? Ten full years? That is, to say the least, a bit jarring.
As I’ve said pretty much every year, that’s still hard to believe for a baseball-obsessed kid who grew up in a baseball-obsessed town and learned to hit left-handed because of the giant maple tree in our backyard (aka left field) that robbed me of so many potential homers to the pull side with my natural right-handed swing.
The ballot choices have not gotten easier over these 10 years, though the dilemmas have shifted. The biggest question leading into my first vote, for the Class of 2017 – aside from whether my support of Tim Raines would finally get him over the 75% hump and into his long-deserved spot in Cooperstown – was what to do with the steroid-era folks including Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Manny Ramirez and others in that conversation.
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1 hour ago Ethan KrugerThis 2027 ballot is the final year for Ramirez. I’ve voted for him every time, except one year when I left him off because of numbers crunch caused by the 10-player limit. The ballot dilemma now isn’t scandalous like the PED topic, but it still makes for a compelling debate.
What should be done with all the high-peak, shortish career guys on the ballot now and in the future? We’ll get back to that shortly.
You would have thought that, after 10 years, I would figure out it’s best not to bury the lead in my annual Hall of Fame column, but obviously, I haven’t.
To answer your main question, this year, I voted for these players (in alphabetical order): Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltran, Mark Buehrle, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Andruw Jones, Andy Pettitte, Manny Ramirez and Chase Utley. That’s nine players.
Quick thoughts on each of the players I voted for …
Bobby Abreu
I’m still stunned at the relative lack of support for Abreu, considering his overall resume. There are only three players in MLB history with at least 275 career home runs, 400 stolen bases and an on-base percentage of .375 or better: Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson and Bobby Abreu.
I’ve voted for him every year. He barely made the cut in his first year – he got 5.5% of the vote, with 5.0% required to stay on the ballot – and he has yet to reach 20%, though he might get there this year.
Carlos Beltran
He’s not an inner-circle guy, but much like Abreu, Beltran did a lot of things well on the baseball field – 70.0 bWAR, 435 homers, 312 stolen bases, nine All-Star nods, three Gold Gloves and moments of postseason brilliance. He almost certainly would be in already if not for his involvement with the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.
Mark Buehrle
As we talk about a changing era and how it relates to Hall of Fame voting, Buehrle is an interesting case. He was one of the last true workhorses, with 14 consecutive seasons of at least 200 innings pitched. His career bWAR of 59.1 is better than more than 20 pitchers already in the Hall. That gives him a borderline case, but I believe there are a few things that get him over the threshold.
For one thing, he’s the only pitcher in MLB history to face the minimum 27 hitters in a game THREE times – his perfect game, his no-hitter and a game in 2004 when he allowed two hits but erased both runners with double plays. And his ability to control the running game was truly elite; he’s second all time with 100 pickoffs.
Then there’s this nugget. Since 1910, only two players have thrown at least 3,000 innings (IP) and allowed fewer stolen bases than the 59 swiped with Buehrle on the mound: Whitey Ford (30 in 3,170.1 IP) and Billy Pierce (53 in 3,306.2 IP).
Cole Hamels
This lefty was my biggest dilemma on the ballot. He falls short of most (OK, all) traditional counting stats but most star hurlers are going to fall short when measured against all-time greats like Walter Johnson, Greg Maddux, Bob Gibson and Randy Johnson.
If we’re measuring Hamels against his contemporaries, though – and isn’t that what the Hall is? – he stacks up much better. His bWAR is identical to Buehrle, and he has some extras, too, including both an NLCS MVP and a World Series MVP trophy. The Phillies absolutely don’t win the 2008 World Series without Hamels, who compiled a 1.80 ERA in five starts covering 35 innings, with just 23 hits allowed and 30 strikeouts.
Felix Hernandez and Andruw Jones
I did not vote for King Felix last year. His case is incredibly similar to Jones, in that he was electric for a decade, then fell off a cliff in terms of performance. I did not vote for Jones for the first several years he was on the ballot for that very reason.
But after years of reflection on the Hall and my voting process, I changed my approach a few years ago. Anyway, Jones got my vote with the shifted philosophy, and Hernandez gets mine now, too.
Andy Pettitte
Not to be a broken record, but Pettitte has an overall borderline case, too. If the circle isn’t expanded to pitchers such as Pettitte, Buehrle, Hernandez and Hamels, you know who gets into the Hall going forward? Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke … and then maybe no other starting pitcher ever.
No other current or recently retired pitcher has anything close to an “all-time” resume. Pettitte gets edged into the “yes” category with a few extras, the biggest one being the postseason. He certainly had plenty of postseason opportunities with those loaded Yankees teams (and one run with Houston), but he was a solid part of five World Series winners, posting a 3.81 ERA in 44 career playoff starts.
Manny Ramirez
This is Manny’s final year on the ballot. With his PED issues, he will not ever get into the Hall –look to Bonds and Clemens getting virtually zero support in the veteran’s committee recently – despite numbers that are Hall-worthy. Ramirez tested positive twice, at 36 and 39 years old; in my opinion, that was long after his Hall resume was secured.
He was one of only six hitters in MLB history with at least 2,000 games who produced a slash line of at least .310/.410/.575, along with Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby and Jimmie Foxx. Again, though, his fate was decided long ago.
Chase Utley
For Utley, the question is whether his short but brilliant peak is enough in a career that started late and ended with injuries derailing his last several seasons.
Utley, Rogers Hornsby and Eddie Collins are the only second basemen to have six consecutive seasons with a bWAR of 5.8 or higher. That’s a good starting spot. A career bWAR nearly equal to Craig Biggio (64.6, compared to 65.5) is another point in Utley’s favor. Is he an inner-circle Hall of Famer? No. Was he one of the best second-basemen of his generation? Yep.
And a few thoughts on players who didn’t make the ballot …
David Wright and Dustin Pedroia
Look, injuries suck. Both players were on a Cooperstown track before injuries ended their productive days. Zero doubts about that. I won’t even argue with those who believe they are Hall of Famers.
But here’s the truth: There is not a single position player in the Hall of Fame who played after 1956 (aside from those who started their careers in the Negro Leagues) with fewer games played than Kirby Puckett’s 1,783. After that, you have to get to Mike Piazza at 1,912. Pedroia finished with 1,512 and Wright played in 1,585.
Even with a “big peak, shorter careers” philosophy, I’m not sure Pedroia and/or Wright reach the standard.
Alex Rodriguez
I have not voted for Alex Rodriguez, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. His numbers are historic, but so were his efforts to cheat the system and elude punishment.
Faced with overwhelming evidence, Rodriguez was twice forced to admit he used PEDs. The first time was during a three-year stretch from when he was 24 to 26 years old, and the scorched-earth approach he chose to defend his elaborate Biogenesis lies and deceptions later in his career are a line too far for me.
Omar Vizquel
I did not vote for Vizquel even before the off-the-field issues surfaced. The biggest reason: In his 24 seasons, the defensive stalwart received exactly one MVP vote. Not one first-place vote, mind you. Just one vote, ever.
In 1999, one writer gave Vizquel the eighth-place vote on his ballot. That’s it. He never appeared on any other MVP ballot. This isn’t like players who didn’t win a Cy Young Award (Mike Mussina, etc.) or hitters who didn’t win an MVP Award (Edgar Martinez, etc).
In his entire 24-year career, only one voter ever thought Vizquel was even one of the top 10 players in his league. If you’re never considered one of the top 10 players in your league any given year, how can you be a Hall of Famer?
Francisco Rodriguez
I have voted for only two closers ever: Mariano Rivera (obviously) and Billy Wagner, the year he was inducted, after the voting philosophy shift. For me, the bar for closers will always be so much higher than it is for other positions because of their limited impact on a season. It’s not just about saves totals, but how they did what they did on the mound. As I wrote in years past, I would have voted for Wagner before I voted for Trevor Hoffman, because dominance is greater than longevity.
Wagner’s rate numbers are pretty incredible, in any historical perspective, whether they’re traditional stats (ERA, WHIP, etc) or analytics (FIP, WAR, etc). But for me, he’s the bar. If you’re Wagner level or better, you’ll get my vote. If not, you won’t. Francisco Rodriguez does not reach that level. He has 15 more saves, yes, but his rate/analytic stats across the board fall far short of Wagner.
Jimmy Rollins
He’s another interesting case, but in a more traditional way. Rollins doesn’t have the short career issue (2,275 games). He has an MVP Award and a World Series title – though neither makes a player an automatic for induction, they’re nice feathers in the cap – and won four Gold Gloves, plus had plenty of big moments in his Phillies career. He has counting stats that impress, including 2,455 hits, 470 stolen bases and 231 home runs.
His advanced metrics aren’t great, though. His WAR of 49.7 – identical on FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, by the way – is well below even borderline Hall of Fame average. And his OPS+ of 95 paints a picture that isn’t pretty, showing him as a below-average hitter (100 is league average) over his 17-year career. I just don’t think his resume is enough.
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Baseball Hall of Fame 2026: Ryan Fagan Explains His BBWAA Ballot Opta Analyst.
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