After sweeping Manchester City aside, Manchester United‘s next game gives them the chance to prove to sceptics that it wasn’t just another false dawn.
Michael Carrick described it as a “dream start”; Manchester United’s latest new era began with a 2-0 win in Saturday’s derby against Manchester City, and yet the interim head coach’s appraisal still felt like he was underselling it considering how the match played out.
United haven’t outclassed City like that in a long, long time, probably not since before Pep Guardiola took charge of them in 2016.
It was 2-0, but there was a sense it could – and maybe should – have been far more comfortable. United had three goals disallowed due to marginal offside calls; they hit the woodwork twice, and Gianluigi Donnarumma was forced into five saves, the most he’s made in a single game for City.
Of course, United’s three disallowed goals aren’t reflected in their 2.27 expected goals (xG), but we should still bear them in mind when considering the game’s flow and momentum; they certainly aren’t irrelevant.
But even without those contributing to the xG total, City’s xG deficit (as in, the difference between theirs and their opponents’) was the fourth biggest of the Guardiola era in the Premier League. Their chances amounted to just 0.45 xG, meaning there was a difference of 1.82.
Only three times since Guardiola took over have City seen their opposition create better opportunities to such a degree in the league: a 2-1 defeat to Chelsea in June 2020 (-3.59 xG deficit), a 2-0 loss to Liverpool in December 2024 (-2.73 xG deficit) and the 5-2 hammering by Leicester City in September 2020 (-1.98 xG deficit).
Each of those games had significant caveats, however. Chelsea and Liverpool both scored a penalty, inflating their respective xG totals, while City had Fernandinho sent off in the second half of the defeat to the Blues. In the Leicester match, Jamie Vardy scored two penalties, which would have accounted for 1.58 of the Foxes’ xG total (2.85).
City fans might insist Guardiola could only pick a makeshift back four at United, but their star-studded attack performed no better than the defence. And United had no penalties and didn’t benefit from a numerical advantage; they were simply devastating in transition and rock solid at the back.
In some respects, Carrick’s gameplan was fairly typical of United in this fixture in recent years: let City have more of the ball, absorb pressure and look to spring fast attacks. For instance, before the weekend, United had averaged 37.7% possession against Guardiola’s City. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s United averaged even less (36.4%) and he won (four) as many derbies as he lost, which is about as good as it gets post-Alex Ferguson.
On Saturday, United had a mere 31.8% possession, last having less of the ball in a league game in March 2024 (27.1% vs Man City). At Old Trafford, it was the fourth-smallest share of possession they’ve had in a single game on record (since 2004-05).
But it was hardly noticeable because United were so effective at creating chances. Of their 11 shots (again, obviously not including the three disallowed goals), seven were on target – City only managed seven attempts in total.
Four of United’s shots were from fast breaks (defined as a fast counter-attack starting from own half with the opposition’s defence at least partly unsorted). That gives further clarity to their plan but also highlights how effective they were in transition, because United have only tallied more attempts from fast breaks in a Premier League game once on record (since 2018-19): five vs Luton Town in February 2024.
With Patrick Dorgu, Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo ably supported by Bruno Fernandes, who was back in a more advanced role as Carrick followed Darren Fletcher’s lead in ditching Ruben Amorim’s system, United were set up to be difficult to handle when moving at speed – the selection of Mbeumo over Benjamin Sesko felt particularly significant.
Sesko had been in good form but was surprisingly left out of the starting XI to accommodate the more dynamic Mbeumo through the middle, which also meant there was room for the lively Amad on the right.
The in-possession plan could be seen in motion for the opening goal. Fernandes charged forward on a swift break with Amad to his right, Dorgu to his left and Mbeumo in front. All were viable passing options and that fact undoubtedly contributed to the City centre-backs failing to end the danger, but Fernandes disguised his intentions before choosing Mbeumo, who made no mistake when through on goal.
Given all the talk of ‘United DNA’ – the merits of it and otherwise – in the wake of Amorim’s departure, this was a fitting goal to score. And that it was Mbeumo applying the finish reflected well on Carrick, given his selection over the in-form Sesko was at least a pre-match topic of discussion, some might even say questionable.
Presumably Carrick felt Mbeumo was the better option for a team looking to exploit transitions and quick counters – after all, that was his fifth Premier League goal following a fast break since the start of last season, a figure bettered only by Mohamed Salah (eight) and Antoine Semenyo (six) in that time.
Over the course of the match, United moved the ball upfield at a speed of 2.7 metres per second; that’s the quickest they’ve progressed the ball in any Premier League game Opta have on record for that metric (since 2016-17).
In short, United were brilliant. They set out with a plan and executed it to perfection, something Carrick will rightly be praised for. He also deserves his dues for his team’s compact shape out of possession that helped ensure United weren’t – as they’ve so often been over the past three years – cut through at will.
Yash Thakur /But United have seen enough false dawns in recent years that it’s impossible not to question just how indicative of the team’s potential that performance was – and yes, saying this may well make us Lieutenant Buzzkill.
There have been quite a few examples of promising one-off performances or results against the likes of Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool that have been followed by a return to the underwhelming levels fans had become accustomed to and frustrated by.
Amorim won his first Manchester derby in December 2024, remember. That dramatic 2-1 win was followed by a run of four successive defeats in all competitions. The shock defeat of Liverpool earlier this season preceded a run of one win in four; the remarkable 4-3 FA Cup win over the Reds in March 2024 came ahead of a six-game winless sequence.
It’s not an exact science, of course, but it does reflect United’s long-term inconsistency.
Take Amorim’s time in charge, for example. United averaged 1.40 points per game against opposition in the bottom half of the table and 1.11 versus teams from the top half of the table. Understandably, you’d expect to pick up more points against bottom-half opposition – there’s nothing weird there.
However, that means United’s PPG only decreased by 26% against top-half opponents; on average, Premier League teams (only ever-present sides during Amorim’s reign) would earn 84.2% fewer PPG against top-half sides than versus bottom-half clubs.
Granted, 1.11 PPG vs top-half teams still wasn’t an exceptional return, it should be noted, but it supports the theory United have been especially underwhelming against the worst teams.
Furthermore, looking specifically at this season, the win at the weekend means United have won more matches (five) vs top-half opposition than they have against bottom-half teams (four).
It brings us back to the suggestion that United have struggled more when they have to break teams down, and this therefore makes their next fixture particularly interesting.
Arsenal perhaps aren’t quite the typical Premier League leaders we’ve come to expect over the past decade or so. The successful Liverpool and City sides, while unique in their own ways, were dominant forces of nature. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, however, feel different, with their brilliant defence what separates them.
Of course, they have excellent attacking players too and are capable of dominating poorer teams, but they are averaging just 0.64 goals conceded per game; only nine Premier League teams have ever had a better record over a full campaign, and this feels like the Gunners’ differentiator at the moment.
Their meeting with United at the very start of the season was memorable because Amorim’s men produced a pretty effective performance. They controlled the game for the most part, created more opportunities and looked cohesive, but an early set-piece goal gave Arsenal something to protect – and that’s what they do best.
United had 61.1% of the ball but couldn’t find an equaliser. In fact, they’ve averaged 59.7% possession in the matches they’ve lost (all comps, excluding penalties) in 2025-26, and 46.4% in those they’ve won.
Their performance in that defeat was generally lauded as encouraging, though, and Arteta’s comment after the game about his team being “not happy” dispels the suggestion Arsenal went to Old Trafford with the intention of shutting up shop.
United’s 1.52 xG that day is the third most Arsenal have conceded in the Premier League this term; were Sunday’s meeting to follow the exact same pattern, Carrick would fancy the chances of his team at least getting a point.
In some ways, then, Arsenal are the perfect next opposition. Their status and the historical significance of the fixture should ensure United are motivated for the occasion, and yet Arteta’s men have the best defensive record around. It’s a fixture to rival the Manchester derby, and the Gunners’ defensive strength will test United’s offensive capabilities.
Their broad approach against City was fairly familiar, but Arsenal’s disciplined and battle-hardened defence represents an altogether different test away from the partisan bubble of Old Trafford on derby day.
It’ll likely be an encounter that needs United to prove they are more than just an effective counter-attacking team, that they can find a way through when the most obdurate defence lays down the gauntlet to them. Passing such a test would show Carrick isn’t simply playing the greatest hits but also grappling with the task of winning in more than one way.
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