It is not outside of the realm of possibility that Donald Trump wants to end this week with some kind of deal that gives America de facto control over Greenland, possibly with a view to taking full ownership of the Danish territory. On Wednesday, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he will meet with the Secretary General of Nato and European leaders to discuss Greenland’s future.
It is worth noting that Tuesday marks a year since Trump was inaugurated back into office for his second term as President of the United States. In that year, his ideas of American exceptionalism have become increasingly rigid and extreme, with little pushback from the international community. What better way to celebrate a year in office than becoming the first president in decades to effectively expand America’s borders?
However far-fetched this may sound, Trump’s rhetoric has moved up a gear since his capture and imprisonment of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro at the start of this month. While that may have been his most ostentatious display of muscle-flexing since returning to office, it was far from the first example of Trump doing something unthinkable for other world leaders – and largely getting away with it.
His repeated threats to pull funding from Nato or walk away from Ukraine has led to European allies pouring billions into the US arms industry and heaping praise on Trump, even when he appeared to treat Vladimir Putin more favourably than America’s traditional friends.
European diplomats and security officials admit they are not entirely sure what Trump truly wants when it comes to Greenland. Broadly speaking, they believe there are two outcomes that are acceptable to the US President, with little room for compromise in either scenario.
The first, and most palatable, option is that what Trump really wants is to shock European Nato allies into action and place more of the burden for Arctic security on European shoulders, financially and politically. However, he wants this to happen in a way that disproportionately serves American national interest. That could mean European countries paying for US troops to be stationed in the region, both on Greenland and in the territorial waters of other Arctic nations.
It could also mean that countries in the Arctic dramatically expand and invest in their regional assets to make them fit for multi-purpose use. That might mean expanding existing ports and harbours along the Northern Sea Route, increasing their ability to monitor what is coming in and out of the Arctic. It would be a double PR win for Trump’s Maga agenda if American ports are given preferential treatment to invest in and control these ports, tightening Trump’s grip on regional trade and serving America’s national security interests.
Ultimately, it is PR victories for Trump that European officials believe are most likely to secure an off-ramp and settle the Greenland question, at least in the short-term.
“My best guess is that Trump is throwing a lot of chaff out ahead of what, by his own words, will be interesting negotiations in Davos,” says a senior European diplomat.
“We have a venue, a scheduled meeting, now we just need a compromise that allows Trump to declare victory,” they add, but with a major caveat: “who knows what goes on in that addled brain?”
Which brings us to the second, and far less palatable, option: Trump simply wants Greenland. This is the much more complicated option. There is no modern precedent for what Trump is proposing. It would set new precedents for how bigger countries treat smaller countries – sending the message that buying a territory after threatening to take it by force is fair game.
This is why the first option, some kind of deal which the White House can claim as a victory, is what Nato allies are desperate to reach in the next few days, ending Trump’s obsession with Greenland.
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However, even this scenario raises questions about what happens going forward. Since returning to office, Trump has been repeatedly rewarded for his threatening behaviour to allied nations. Even as they disagreed with him over Greenland, French President Emmanuel Macron and Nato boss Mark Rutte knew they had to flatter him with compliments about how he had handled the rise of Isis in Syria, the war in Ukraine and brokering a peace deal in Gaza. We know this because Trump has been posting screenshots of the text messages on Truth Social.
Everyone knows what the deal is here: Nato and European security cannot currently exist without the US. If the US were to withdraw from Nato now, there is no way that the remaining 31 countries could make up the hard or soft power. That day might come at some point in the future, but not today. It is, officials often say behind closed doors, the diplomatic equivalent of a protection racket.
Until a day comes that America’s Western allies can exist without US support, this is the tightrope that must be walked. It is uncomfortable, it is risky and it is at times demeaning. But it will hopefully teach them a lesson: to never again place so much reliance on a single international ally that could turn on you in a moment’s notice. Because if he gets what he wants on Greenland, who knows what he may demand next?
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