We look ahead to Wednesday’s Champions League clash at the Orange Vélodrome with our Marseille vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Arne Slot’s side are within a point of the top eight, but have drawn their last four matches.
Marseille vs Liverpool: The Key Stats
Liverpool are the strong favourites for a victory here, with Arne Slot’s team assigned a 48.4% win probability by the Opta supercomputer. The Reds have won just one of their last six away games against French sides in all competitions (D2 L3). Marseille have won their last two Champions League games, last winning more in a row between October and December 2010 (four).While a 12-game unbeaten run in all competitions may suggest that the tide is beginning to turn at Liverpool, the mood is far from positive at Anfield ahead of their return to European action.
The Reds make the trip to Marseille this Wednesday in their penultimate league-phase encounter in the UEFA Champions League, hoping to edge closer to a top-eight finish.
But they arrive in the south of France following a disappointing 1-1 draw at home to lowly Burnley in the Premier League, a result that has once again put head coach Arne Slot under pressure.
Indeed, for the first time since the 1980-81 top-flight season (D1 L2), Liverpool have failed to win any of their three home league games against newly-promoted sides, drawing all three matches in 2025-26.
They have also now drawn six of their last nine Premier League games (W3), as many as in their previous 36 matches (W21 D6 L9). It’s the first time they’ve drawn four successive matches in the competition since January 2008.
But in Europe, Liverpool have fared much better. A 1-0 win over Inter last time out courtesy of a late penalty from Dominik Szoboszlai put them in a good position to challenge for automatic qualification for the knockout stages of the competition.
They are on 12 points, level with Inter, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid ahead of Matchday 7, and sit in ninth place, having scored fewer goals than Atlético, who occupy the final top-eight spot.
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3 hours ago Matt FurnissHowever, they come up against a Marseille side with automatic qualification prospects of their own, with just three points separating them and the Premier League champions in the table.
The Ligue 1 giants have also won their last two Champions League games, last winning more consecutively between October and December 2010 (four).
And they have already beaten Premier League opposition in Europe this season. Their 2-1 win against Newcastle United in November ended a 12-game winless run against English sides in all competitions (D3 L9). The last time they beat two different Premier League clubs in the same European campaign was in 2003-04, when they beat Newcastle and Liverpool in the UEFA Cup.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been key to their recent run in Europe. Only Kylian Mbappé (9) has been involved in more Champions League goals than the Marseille striker (7).
With three goals and four assists, it’s Aubameyang’s second-best return in a single campaign in the competition after 2016-17 (7 goals, 1 assist), during his time at Borussia Dortmund.
Aubameyang has also scored 13 goals in major European competition for Marseille, netting three in the Champions League this term and 10 in the 2023-24 UEFA Europa League. Only Jean-Pierre Papin (23) has scored more for the club across major European competitions (excluding qualifiers), but he does have a poor record against Liverpool.
In his 13 outings against them in all competitions, the former Arsenal striker has been on the winning side just three times (D3 L7), while he has only found the back of the net against the Reds three times.
Liverpool also boast quality of their own in the final third, with big-money summer signing Florian Wirtz beginning to hit his stride on Merseyside.
Following his goal against Burnley, six of Wirtz’s nine goal involvements for Liverpool have come since December 20 (4 goals, 2 assists). No Premier League player has more in all competitions in that time.
And while his form has stuttered in the league, the German international has shone in the Champions League. Only Real Madrid’s Mbappé (20) has created more chances than Wirtz in this year’s competition (17, level with Szoboszlai and Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise).
Liverpool could also potentially welcome Mohamed Salah back into their ranks after leading Egypt to a fourth-placed finish at the Africa Cup of Nations. The 33-year-old is two goals away from reaching 50 goals in the Champions League and would become the 11th player in the history of the competition to reach a half-century.
Salah could be key to Liverpool’s chances of automatically qualifying for the last 16 of the competition, which are rated significantly higher than Marseille’s.
The Reds finished in the top eight in 63.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s tournament simulations, while the French side’s hopes of avoiding a play-off are handed just a 3% chance of happening.
Marseille vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Marseille have lost their last three Champions League games against Liverpool, most recently in the 2008-09 group stage (2-1 home, 1-0 away).
But Liverpool have won just one of their last six away games against French sides in all competitions (D2 L3), though that was a 1-0 win at Paris Saint-Germain in their most recent visit in March 2025.
Marseille vs Liverpool Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and it is Slot’s side who are fancied to triumph at the Orange Velodrome.
Liverpool are assigned a 48.4% chance of victory over their Ligue 1 opponents, with Marseille handed a 27.5% probability of taking all three points.
A draw occurred in 24.1% of those outcomes, although recent history for both sides in the Champions League suggests the likelihood of a stalemate is slim.
Marseille are on a run of 30 Champions League games without a draw (W8 L22), while Liverpool have not drawn any of their last 27 (W19 L8). It’s the two longest runs without a stalemate in the competition’s history.
Marseille vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Marseille: Gerónimo Rulli, Benjamin Pavard, Leonardo Balerdi, Facundo Medina, Matt O’Riley, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Timothy Weah, Emerson, Mason Greenwood, Igor Paixão, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Head Coach: Roberto De Zerbi
Liverpool: Alisson, Jeremie Frimpong, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Curtis Jones, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké.
Head Coach: Arne Slot
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Marseille vs Liverpool Prediction: Can Slot’s Draw Specialists Edge Closer to a Top-Eight Finish? Opta Analyst.
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