US President Trump has once again offered to intervene in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis.
To describe his return to this issue, no expression seems more fitting than the popular proverb: ‘The proof of the pudding is in the eating.’
What this means is that true capability is revealed only through action; just as the water itself distinguishes a true diver from a pretender, the results of this intervention will be the ultimate judge of its success.
This is not the first time Trump has addressed or delved into the issue of the GERD.
We should vividly recall his attempts to broker a solution during his first term, when he hosted the foreign and irrigation ministers of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia in the Oval Office. He sat for that famous photograph with them and tasked his Secretary of the Treasury with spearheading the negotiations.
Yet, Ethiopia deliberately failed to present itself at the eleventh hour, and the issue was promptly sent back to square one.
What guarantee is there that this scenario will not play out again? And what, in fact, did Trump do when the Ethiopians failed to show on the day of the final signing?
The reality is: nothing.
The American president subsequently departed the White House; upon his return for a second term, he resumed his discourse on the matter a few months ago, yet his rhetoric has yet to yield any tangible results on the ground.
Today, he returns to reiterate his offer. In a message posted on his own platform (Truth Social), he stated that he and his team are prepared to work on the ‘sharing’ of the Nile waters, acknowledging the existential necessity the ‘Eternal River’ represents for the Egyptian people and asserting his ability to reach a final resolution.
Of course, the crux of the matter is not ‘water sharing’—it remains a question of a historical quota governed by the international laws that regulate the utilization of transboundary rivers.
As you can see, the US President’s words are indeed compelling. The problem, however, is that we have heard it all before; more than that, we have put it to the test. The only result was what we see today: a pattern of Ethiopian intransigence, defiance, maneuvering, and evasion—nothing more. If the President truly intends to facilitate a solution as he claims, he does not need a formal invitation from us.
I would hope to see a statement from the Egyptian government that simply says: ‘The floor is yours.’
However, this must be accompanied by Egyptian demanding a strictly defined timeline—one with a clear beginning and a definitive end. Otherwise, we risk a repeat of his first term: a cycle of endless discussions alongside Trump’s team, only for him to vacate the Oval Office just as he did before, leaving the issue exactly as he found it, much like in 2020.
We would then discover, as we have in the past, that Americans are more interested in ‘managing’ the world’s problems than actually solving them.
Furthermore, Trump’s global track record hardly inspires confidence—from his dealings in Venezuela and Greenland to his meeting with the Venezuelan Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Machado. That meeting famously concluded with him effectively seizing the medal from her, showing no hesitation in having his photograph taken during an act of appropriation.
Time and again, the man has proven that whenever he tackles a subject, he is the sort of person that upon shaking his hand, makes you feel the need to count your fingers.
Author’s biography
Soliman Gouda is a prominent figure in Egyptian journalism, known for his leadership roles and insightful commentary.
He previously served as the Editor-in-Chief of Al-Wafd newspaper and currently writes columns for Al-Masry Al-Youm.
Beyond his journalistic output, Gouda is highly regarded in the professional community, evidenced by his role as a Member of the Arbitration Panel for the Bahrain Journalism Award. A recognized writer, he wrote seven books and is the recipient of five journalism awards, including the Ahmed Amin award.
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