Iran has returned to a relative calm, albeit an uneasy one, following a series of protests that were met with a brutal and fatal crackdown by the authorities.
The latest demonstrations and the response to them has been compared with the chaos surrounding the 1979 revolution when the Shaw was overthrown.
However, the death toll has been unprecedented, with US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency stating on Friday it had reached 3,090 and is continuing to rise.
Donald Trump has thanked the Iranian government for not following through on executions of what he said was meant to be hundreds of political prisoners.
The official IRNA news agency reported that Tehran Prosecutor General Ali Salehi, referring to Trump’s remarks about the cancellation of the death sentence of 800 protesters, said: “Trump always makes futile and irrelevant statements. Our attitude is severe, preventive and fast.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also lashed out at Trump. On Saturday he branded Trump a “criminal” for supporting protesters in Iran and blamed him for the casualties and damage.
Khamenei also described protesters as “foot soldiers” of the US who had destroyed mosques and educational centre, and killed people.
More protests ‘likely’
There have been no signs of protest for in Tehran for days, and shopping and street life now effectively resemble normality. But further demonstrations are expected.
Authorities blocked all internet access on 8 January while the protests were ongoing but on Saturday, text messaging and very limited internet services began functioning again briefly in parts of Iran, according to witnesses.
Professor Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, told The i Paper he would describe the current climate in Iran as “febrile”.
“I think there’s an enormous amount of anger in society,” he said. “We’re not going back to the status quo that we had beforehand, and the situation is extremely difficult because largely the economic situation is so bad that you’re likely to get more protests.”
More protests are expected in Iran despite the authorities’ brutal crackdown (Photo: Claudia Greco/Reuters)He added: “We’ve had protests in 2017, 2019, 2022, now 2025/6, three of those of the last ones I’ve brought up were basically economic in origin, all of which became political very. It’s a reflection of the fact that the economics, the political economy of the country is going downhill very, very quickly. There’s vast inflation, the currency is collapsing.
“The reasons for opposition to the regime are myriad. It’s not delivering.”
These shortfalls include failing to deliver basic resources such as water, and not being able to supply gas and oil to Iranian citizens, despite sitting on the fourth largest reserves of oil and the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world, Ansari said.
Issues such as these, as well as the authorities’ overzealous response to recent displays of resistance, will likely trigger more protests. And this is a scenario that could be made even more likely if Trump launches some sort of intervention.
In recent days, Trump told protesting Iranians that ” help is on the way” and that his administration would “act accordingly” if the killing of demonstrators continued or if Iranian authorities executed detained protesters.
Other high-profile figures outside of Iran have been vocal in their encouragement of protesters.
Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi called for protesters to take to the streets again from Saturday to Monday. It does not appear these calls have been heeded.
“All my information suggests that the protests have not died down yet,” Ansari said.
“The level of brutality inflicted upon the protesters means that you’re probably likely to get protests sooner rather than later. People are really shocked about what’s happened.
“The level of casualties here is probably far in excess of anything that’s been experienced in Iran over the last 150 years. It’s an astonishing level of violence.”
What might Ayatollah Ali Khamenei do next?
Iranian officials have repeatedly accused the United States and Israel of encouraging unrest in the country.
Khamenei is effectively doubling down on the regime’s ideology and has blamed Trump for the deaths and damage.
“He will probably think they have defeated this great, foreign-inspired insurgency and they can go back to normal,” Ansari said.
But with Iranians deeply frustrated with the economy and governance, the Iran expert said that is not a realistic option.
“He’s [Khameni] not taking any decisions vis-à-vis the economy, and the only way he could rescue the economy, is to actually completely change the nature of the Islamic Republic, and he’s not prepared to do that.
“He’d have to stop being a revolutionary power, he’d have to start building relations with other people, and he just doesn’t do it.”
Iran has threatened to attack US assets in the region. While this form of action is within their capability, Ansari said the retaliation would be “quite astonishing”.
“Their deterrence is ‘we will destroy everything around us’. It’s a very nihilistic approach, Ansari said.
Iran faces ‘long and rough’ transition
Pahlavi, the son of the shah ousted by the Islamic Revolution in 1979, has appealed to world leaders to support protesters to bring down the current government. He has asserted that he is “uniquely positioned to ensure a stable transition”.
There is support for his return among the Iranian people in the diaspora. Adeleh Tavakoli, 62, who participated in a demonstration outside Parliament earlier this week, told AP she would return to Iran after 17 years if Pahlavi took over.
However, he has struggled to gain wider appeal within Iran.
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“I think there’s a huge amount of monarchical nostalgia. There’s no doubt about that,” Ansari said.
However, he explained that any form of regime transition or regime change is going to take longer than most people think.
“This is not going to be a smooth transition,” he said.
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