A trio of Orange County officials is running for statewide executive office this year, and if any of them emerge victorious in November, it would be a bit of an anomaly.
That’s not just because former Huntington Beach city attorney Michael Gates and Supervisor Don Wagner are both Republicans running against Democratic incumbents in a very blue state in races for attorney general and secretary of state, respectively. And that’s also not only because former Rep. Katie Porter would be the first female governor in California.
Rather, it’s their home base: Orange County.
Despite the county accounting for nearly 10% of California’s population, very few of its residents have been able to win statewide elections.
That’s certainly not due to a lack of political talent in Orange County, said Fred Smoller, an expert in media and politics who teaches at Chapman University.
Really, it’s a structural curse, he said.
Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco produce more statewide candidates because those cities have a centralized television news market and mayoralities that help boost candidates with name ID. Orange County doesn’t have that one mayoral position and shares TV media markets with Los Angeles and, to a lesser extent, San Diego.
“There’s plenty of talented people from Orange County on both sides of the aisle,” said Smoller. “But there’s no centralized media and we suffer from the fact that we have no career ladder (like a mayor’s office) that would provide a platform for them to receive greater recognition.”
“It’s a structural constraint,” Smoller added, “and that inhibits talent from both sides of the aisle from moving to a statewide office.”
But that’s not to say it’s impossible for an Orange County resident to be elected statewide.
File photo from December, 1983 of Controller Ken Cory testifying at a special Assembly committee hearing on investment practices. Ken is discussing his part in investing money from the State Teacher’s Retirement System fund in 1982 when they bought Texaco oil stock. (Photo by Walt Zeboski/Ap)Case in point: Ken Cory, who lived in Westminster and Garden Grove, was elected to serve as the state’s controller in 1974. Cory, who served in the statehouse prior to the executive branch, was reelected in 1978 and 1982, leaving office after not seeking another term in 1986.
Cory, his obituary noted, was a Democrat who was respected by those on both sides of the aisle. He was dubbed “the man oil companies fear most.”
There’s also Thomas Kuchel, who hailed from Anaheim and, like Cory, served as the state’s controller. Kuchel, though, was also elected to the U.S. Senate, albeit some time ago: He was appointed to the Senate in 1953, winning subsequent reelections to the seat where he served for 16 years, including as the Republican whip. He served as controller from 1946 to 1953.
President John Kennedy has pen in hand as he sign the $4,672,000,000 foreign aid authorization bill in his White House office in Washington August 1, 1962. A large bipartisan congressional delegation was on hand for the ceremony. In the background, from left, are; Sen. Thomas Kuchel, R-Calif., Rep. Francis E. Walter, D-Pa., Rep. Thomas E. Morgan, D-Pa., Rep. Peter Frelinghuysen, R-N.J., Rep. Cornelius E. Gallagher, D.-N.J., and Sen. George D. Aiken, R-Vt. (AP Photo/John Rous)Kuchel was an infamous progressive in the Republican Party at the time, playing roles in the Senate’s work to pass Medicare, the 1965 Voting Rights Act and the 1964 Civil Rights Act, as well as conservation efforts and a nuclear test ban treaty.
And there are others, too, with ties to Orange County. Probably chief among them: former President Richard Nixon, who, while he lived in Whittier and represented a Los Angeles County congressional seat, was born in Yorba Linda. His presidential library is in Yorba Linda, but when Nixon was president, the western White House was in San Clemente.
The presidency wasn’t Nixon’s only attempt to woo California voters all around the state. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1950, but a little more than a decade later, he’d lose a bid for governor, telling reporters after the loss, “Just think how much you’re going to be missing. You don’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.”
John Seymour, a former Anaheim mayor and longtime Orange County politician, served in the U.S. Senate. But he was appointed to fill a vacancy and lost the election to the seat to the late Dianne Feinstein.
Sen. John Seymour (R-Calif.), center gestures while talking to President George Bush on Capitol Hill in Washington to discuss the situation in Los Angeles, May 5, 1992. The president told reporters he was doing “a lot of listening, talking, and explaining where we stand on the federal side on L.A.” Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas looks on at left. (AP Photo/John Duricka)More recently, Loretta Sanchez, then an Orange County Congress member, made a run for what was an open U.S. Senate seat in 2016. But she finished second to Kamala Harris, then the state attorney general from San Francisco.
So what would it take for an Orange County politician to win elected office?
It’s more of an uphill battle, but not completely outside the realm of possibility, for a Republican to win, said Scott Spitzer, who teaches political science at Cal State Fullerton.
It depends on identity, he said, and whether candidates choose to focus on issues that would appeal to independent voters — taxes and cost of living, for example — rather than more polarizing issues, like gay marriage or climate change denial.
“I do think there’s room for Republicans to win statewide office in California, but that’s not where the state Republican Party in California has been,” said Spitzer. “They’ve been pursuing a line of politics that’s nationally conservative and Trump-aligned, which doesn’t appeal to the moderate conservative voters in California. It definitely appeals to Republicans in pockets of the state, but it’s not going to win a statewide majority.”
Porter recently lost a statewide bid, not even advancing past the primary in the race for an open U.S. Senate seat in 2024.
But she’s got the greater chance among the three in her quest for statewide office, both Smoller and Spitzer said, and her Orange County connection could actually be a boost.
“In some ways, coming from Orange County could help her,” said Spitzer. “She could say, ‘Look, I could pull some votes from more conservative areas where other candidates are used to relying on San Diego and Los Angeles and San Francisco.’” She might not win those areas outright, Spitzer noted, but she could still pick up support there among people more familiar with her work.
Smoller said Porter, although she’s a staunch progressive, could possibly sway more right-leaning voters as well, who might think she would keep the county’s interests more at the forefront than other candidates for governor.
“She might make the appeal, ‘I’m not your cup of tea politically, but at least you know me, and we’d have someone from Orange County in the governorship,’” Smoller said.
“I’m not sure that’s an argument that would sell, but she could certainly make it.”
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