There are four NFL games spread across two days featuring eight teams looking to move one step closer to the Super Bowl. We break down the one question for each, and reveal the Opta Supercomputer’s win probabilities.
It’s time to say goodbye to six teams and welcome two more to the playoff party.
It’ll be tough for the NFL’s divisional round to match one of the more exhilarating weekends of wild-card games in league history.
But with the top two seeds from each conference added to the mix, we now have four games spread across two days featuring eight teams looking to move one step closer to the Super Bowl.
The AFC kicks off both days of games this weekend, and by the time the dust settles on Sunday night, we’ll have only four teams still in contention for the Lombardi Trophy.
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No. 6 Buffalo Bills (13-5) at No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3)
When: Saturday, Jan. 17, 4:30 p.m. ET Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Broncos 58.8% One Big Question: Can the Broncos take advantage of the Bills’ subpar rush defense?As the AFC’s top seed, the surprising Broncos not only had the benefit of receiving a bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but they also get to host the lowest-seeded conference team to survive from the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend.
Their reward is a game against a Bills team playing in the divisional round for a sixth straight season, led by the reigning league MVP who happens to have more touchdown passes in the postseason in his entire career (26 in 14 games) than his Denver counterpart had in the 2025 regular season (25 in 17 games).
Maybe not exactly what most Broncos fans were hoping for.
The sixth-seeded Bills arrive in Denver after defeating the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24 on Sunday for their first playoff victory away from Buffalo since January 1993, ending an eight-game road losing streak.
Josh Allen delivered a gutsy performance and put Buffalo ahead on a 1-yard touchdown run with just over one minute remaining in the fourth quarter, one play after he picked up 10 yards on a sneak on a 4th-and-1, as he willed his way closer to the goal line while being pushed along by teammates.
The Broncos snuck their way into the playoffs last season, and were quickly dispatched by the seasoned Bills. Allen threw for a pair of touchdowns in an easy 31-7 win in a wild-card game.
Denver didn’t sneak up on anyone this season, going 14-3 behind a defense that led the NFL in sacks (68), ranked second in total yards (278.2 per game) and third in scoring (18.3 per game).
There are some questions on offense, however.
Despite throwing a league-high 612 passes, quarterback Bo Nix ranked 26th in passer rating (87.8), 27th in well-thrown percentage (79.0) and 28th in yards per attempt (6.42) among qualifiers.
He’s been steady but not spectacular, so getting the ground game going against a shaky Buffalo defense would go a long way in helping the second-year signal-caller.
The problem for the Broncos is that J.K. Dobbins is still at least a week away from returning from a Lisfranc injury sustained against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10. Since Week 11, Denver averaged 3.94 yards per carry to rank 24th in the NFL after its average of 4.76 through Week 10 ranked eighth.
There is room for optimism, though, with a matchup against Buffalo.
During the regular season, the Bills ranked 30th in yards allowed per carry (5.14) and 28th in rushing yards per game allowed (136.2), and their problems carried over into their wild-card game at Jacksonville. Buffalo was shredded for 154 rushing yards and 6.70 yards per rush with seven of the Jaguars’ 23 runs going for at least 10 yards.
Inside zone is the run concept that gives the Bills the most problems – their average of 4.7 yards allowed is the fifth highest in the NFL and their opponent success rate of 45.3% ranks 27th.
As it happens, the Broncos run more inside zone (32.7%) than any other concept and it should be a focal point of their offensive game plan given Buffalo’s deficiencies, as well as their own strengths.
Since Week 11, Denver ranks second in yards per play on inside zone runs (5.1) as well as successful play rate (51.4%), with RJ Harvey a big reason why.
Thrust into the starting lineup following Dobbins’ injury, the rookie running back is averaging 3.00 yards after contact on inside zone runs – second in the NFL among the 43 running backs with at least 20 such runs since Week 11.
(Minimum 20 carries)Not only will defending against inside zone pose challenges for Buffalo, but Nix’s ability to escape the pocket and scramble also presents problems.
The Bills struggle mightily at chasing down quarterbacks, surrendering an NFL-worst 9.41 yards per scramble. Against the Jaguars, they allowed Lawrence to pick up 26 yards on three scrambles.
Lawrence averaged 4.39 yards on his scrambles in the regular season. Any guesses on which qualifying quarterback averaged the most?
That would be Nix, who averaged 7.47 yards on 34 scrambles.
So, while Nix’s arm may not strike fear in Bills fans, between his legs and Harvey’s ability to bounce off would-be tacklers, Buffalo will likely have its hands full trying to stop Denver from moving the ball on the ground.
No. 5 Houston Texans (13-5) vs. No. 2 New England Patriots (15-3)
When: Saturday, Jan. 18, 3 p.m. ET Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Texans 51.0% One Big Question: What can we expect from each QB1 against these stout defenses?Defense wins championships. Or, at least wins in the wild-card round, in the case of the Texans and Patriots.
In a matchup between two teams with one combined loss since Week 10, the Texans and Patriots square off in an AFC division game after each team kept its opponent out of the end zone last weekend.
Houston is in the divisional round for the third straight season, but the franchise has never made it past the second weekend of the playoffs in its six previous trips.
It had also never won a road playoff game in six previous tries, but that dubious distinction ended Monday with a 30-6 victory over the AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers to extend its winning streak to a franchise-record 10 games.
New England, meanwhile, won for the 14th time in 15 games with Sunday’s 16-3 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.
The second-seeded Patriots limited the Chargers to 207 total yards of offense, 3.5 yards per play, held them to just 1 for 10 on third downs and sacked Justin Herbert six times to punch their ticket into the divisional round for the first time since winning Super Bowl LIII in February 2019.
Not to be outdone 24 hours later in Pittsburgh, the fifth-seeded Texans permitted a mere 175 yards to the Steelers, 3.1 yards per play, stopped 12 of 14 third-down attempts and sacked Aaron Rodgers four times. They also became the first team since the 1940 Chicago Bears to score multiple defensive touchdowns without surrendering a TD in a playoff game.
That is the good news for both the Patriots and Texans’ fanbases. The bad news? Both teams’ quarterbacks had less-than-inspiring showings.
Drake Maye posted an NFL-best 113.5 passer rating in the regular season to enter the postseason as an MVP candidate, but he got off to a sluggish start in his playoff debut.
He completed just six passes in the first 30 minutes and went into the locker room at half with a 34.0 passer rating. He played better after the break, but it was a far cry from what we’ve seen from the second-year signal-caller, as he finished with one touchdown and one interception while being sacked five times. Two of those sacks resulted in fumbles, with one being lost.
As bad as that was, somehow C.J. Stroud managed to lose control of the ball even more.
In addition to a red zone interception, he also fumbled five times while losing two, joining Eli Manning in 2007 as the only two players to have five or more fumbles in a win since fumbles were first tracked in 1991.
Stroud did throw a 6-yard touchdown pass to Christian Kirk, but the pass was behind his receiver, and he ended the game with a well-thrown rate of just 68.8%. The league average in the regular season was 81.4%, with Stroud below it at 78.9.
It helped that his defense bailed him out, scoring a pair of touchdowns – one on a 33-yard fumble return by Sheldon Rankins early in the fourth quarter to put Houston up by 11 and the other on a Calen Bullock 50-yard interception return on Rodgers’ final pass nine minutes later to end the scoring.
Stroud’s final passer rating was 86.7, just a hair better than Maye’s 86.6. Both QBs will be facing better defenses this time around, so who will be able to bounce back?
Houston finished the regular season first in total defense (277.2 yards per game), second in scoring (17.4 points per game) and third in opponent passer rating (76.2).
In the team’s playoff opener, All-Pro edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter were each credited with a strip sack, while Anderson had six QB pressures and Hunter five.
In the last meeting between these teams – a 41-21 Texans’ victory in Week 6 of last season – Anderson had three of Houston’s four sacks of Maye, with Hunter accounting for the other.
That was Maye’s first career start. He’s come a long way since then, especially in dealing with pressure.
In five games since New England’s Week 14 bye, Maye is throwing to an open receiver 76.7% of the time while being pressured (eighth among 32 qualifying QBs). He threw to an open target only 66.4% of the time while under pressure (23rd among 32 QBs) in the first 13 contests.
When pressured by Los Angeles last weekend, Maye completed 5 of 9 passes for 126 yards with a touchdown and an interception for a 97.9 QB rating. He had an 81.7 passer rating on 20 throws when he wasn’t pressured.
He’ll be going up against the NFL’s best pass-rushing tandem in Anderson and Hunter, who rank third and fourth, respectively, among qualified edge rushers in pass-rush rating.
(A rating of 100 is the highest mark a player can earn)Anderson’s pressure rate of 30.7 ranks third among the 33 edge rushers with a minimum of 250 pass rushes. Anderson enters the divisional round with 12.5 sacks in 18 games and an adjusted-sack rate of 6.8% (fourth best among qualifying edge rushers), while Hunter has 16 sacks and ranks third in adjusted-sack rate at 7.0%.
The Patriots entered the playoffs fourth in scoring defense (18.8) and eighth in total defense (295.2) before overwhelming a banged-up Chargers offensive line in their wild-card win.
K’Lavon Chaisson and Milton Williams had two sacks apiece with New England blitzing 45.5% of the time – well up from its regular-season average of 33.2. In all, the Pats notched 24 pressures – their most in a game since Week 17 of 2022 when they had 26 against the Miami Dolphins.
The Steelers blitzed Stroud 12 times on Monday, and the third-year quarterback handled it well, throwing a well-thrown ball 81.8% of the time. On his 20 passes when he wasn’t blitzed, he had a well-thrown percentage of 60.0 with his lone interception, so blitzing might not be the answer for New England against Stroud.
One potential major concern for Stroud is the availability of top target Nico Collins, who suffered his second concussion of the season on Monday. With Houston on a short week, there’s a good chance he won’t be able to go in this contest.
Kirk, though, stepped up with a monster performance, catching eight passes for a Houston franchise-record 144 yards and the aforementioned TD. This comes after he caught all of seven passes for 41 yards in the final six regular-season games.
Houston escaped in the wild-card round despite Stroud’s struggles in part because it was playing an inferior Pittsburgh team. It is unlikely to enjoy the same fate if the offense again sputters against a confident New England team coming off an impressive defensive showing.
– Matt Becker
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No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
When: Saturday, Jan. 17, 8 p.m. ET Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Seahawks 59.0% One Big Question: Does it even matter if Sam Darnold has another playoff flop?The Seahawks just completed arguably the best regular season in franchise history, winning a team-record 14 games and being crowned champions of the ultra-competitive NFC West on their way to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Seattle boasts the third-ranked scoring offense at 28.4 points per game and the league’s best scoring defense, allowing 17.2 points per game. The Seahawks are the betting favorites to win Super Bowl LX, and yet there is a cloud of doubt hanging over the team as it prepares for its playoff opener.
That doubt comes from the history of uneven performances by quarterback Sam Darnold and his lack of success in big games.
Darnold had a career year for the Minnesota Vikings last season, throwing 35 touchdown passes and posting a 102.5 passer rating.
However, when the Vikings faced the Detroit Lions in Week 18 with the NFC North title on the line, Darnold completed 18 of 41 passes for 166 yards and had a 55.5 passer rating in a 31-9 loss.
The following week, Minnesota lost 27-9 to the Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round, and Darnold’s numbers were only slightly better: 25 of 40 for 245 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also played a role in being sacked a career-high nine times.
The Vikings then became the fourth franchise to give up on the former No. 3 overall draft pick.
Darnold produced another very good regular season in 2025, with a 99.1 passer rating just below his 2024 mark and a career-best 8.5 yards per attempt.
Some observers, however, are bracing for another letdown from Darnold in a big game, and there are numbers to back up that claim. His efficiency appears to fade, both over the course of the season and as each individual game progresses.
Through the first eight games of the season, Darnold had a passer rating of 116.0. Over the Seahawks’ last nine games, however, his passer rating is just 85.2.
Darnold has also been more successful earlier in games. He has a 108.0 passer rating in the first half this season and a 90.8 rating in the second half and overtime. His 10 second-half interceptions were tied with Tua Tagovailoa for the most in the league.
Yet Darnold still led all qualified quarterbacks in well-thrown rate at 87.1% and led an offense that ranked sixth in passing success rate (46.0%) and third in passing explosive rate (11.2%). He has also led three game-winning drives in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime.
Darnold has been surrounded by more talent than at any point in his career, and Mike Macdonald’s coaching staff appears to be aware of Darnold’s potential limitations.
Darnold likely won’t have to play at the top of his game against San Francisco, which ranks 30th in success rate allowed (46.5%) this season.
Running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet combined for 1,757 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns, and they could get the ball plenty against a 49ers defense that has allowed a league-worst rushing success rate of 48.8%.
When the Seahawks turn to the air, it’s all about Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose regular season was among the best campaigns ever for a receiver. He stacked up 119 catches for 1,793 yards (eighth all time) and 10 touchdowns in 2025.
Of the 18 individual seasons with the most receiving yards since 1970, Smith-Njigba is the only one to see fewer than 10 targets per game. Among the top 10 receiving seasons of all time, only Calvin Johnson’s 16.1 yards per catch are higher than Smith-Njigba’s 15.1.
Add the NFC’s best defense, and the Seahawks feel poised to win, even if Darnold throws a couple of interceptions. They’re 6-3 this season when committing multiple turnovers. The rest of the league is a combined 36-133 in such games.
These teams split their two regular season meetings, but the 49ers’ win came in Week 1 before they endured devastating injuries to Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Fred Warner and others.
Kyle Shanahan and the rest of the coaching staff did a tremendous job to get to 12-5, and taking down the defending champion Eagles in Philadelphia last weekend was no easy feat.
But the Seahawks held the Niners to just nine first downs in their Week 18 meeting, a 13-3 Seattle victory, and their stifling defense makes them the favorites in Round 3.
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at No. 2 Chicago Bears (12-6)
When: Sunday, Jan. 18, 6:30 p.m. ET Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Rams 54.6% One Big Question: How much will the weather affect Matthew Stafford’s air attack?Fans of the Bears are in an unfamiliar position.
The thrilling comeback victory over the rival Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round was the franchise’s first postseason win since the 2010 season. And so a Chicago fanbase that has spent decades pining for a winning team will get another home playoff game on Sunday when the Rams come to town.
Seemingly, no game is out of reach for the Bears, who trailed 21-3 at halftime against the Packers. The Bears led the NFL with six wins after trailing in the fourth quarter this season, and they continued that trend in the opening round of the playoffs.
With first-year head coach Ben Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams in place, Chicago is optimistic that this playoff run will be followed by many more in the near future.
While the youthful Bears are in unfamiliar territory, the Rams have become accustomed to serious playoff runs under Sean McVay. They’re playing in the divisional round for the fifth time in the last eight seasons.
Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay have already won one Super Bowl together, and this year’s offense may be the best the pair has fielded to date. The Rams boasted the NFL’s highest-scoring offense at 30.5 points per game, and the 37-year-old Stafford is the betting favorite to win his first MVP.
Stafford threw for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns during the regular season and had three more scores in the Rams’ 34-31 wild-card win over the Carolina Panthers, including the game-winner with 38 seconds remaining.
But Los Angeles is much more than just its passing game. It has a balanced offense and a well-rounded roster on both sides of the ball that faces a tough test on the road in frigid Chicago.
The Bears have defied analysis by many traditional metrics. They ranked 29th in the league with 361.8 total yards allowed per game, but weren’t far off league average with 24.4 points allowed per game.
Despite winning the NFC North with an 11-6 record, Chicago ranked 17th in the league in time played with the lead. The secret sauce for the Bears has been turnovers, and their plus-22 margin has allowed them to stay in games despite a below-average defense.
Most analysts view forced turnovers more as a measure of luck than skill, but the Bears have consistently generated extra possessions. It also helps that the Chicago offense has recovered 12 of its 16 fumbles, a statistic that usually leans toward 50/50 over time.
It bodes well for the Rams that they only had 11 fumbles (seven lost) and eight interceptions this season, but Chicago’s ball-hawking defense and special teams will try to buck that trend.
The other challenge facing Los Angeles on Sunday night will be the weather, with the kickoff temperature expected to be around 10 degrees with winds between 15 and 25 mph.
Teams have been able to move the ball through the air all season against the Bears, and they allowed four touchdown passes to Jordan Love in their playoff opener.
The elements could work to the Bears’ advantage, however, as Stafford is 3-5 with six interceptions in his last eight games when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees.
If Sunday’s game becomes confined to the ground, the matchup becomes much more even.
The Bears finished third in the NFL with 144.5 rushing yards per game and were particularly effective once rookie Kyle Monangai emerged as a viable backfield partner to D’Andre Swift.
The Rams are no strangers to the ground game, either, with a league-leading 50.5% rushing success rate.
On paper, Stafford, Puka Nacua and a prolific passing game should make the difference against the Bears, but a raucous crowd, frigid temperatures and a few turnovers could have Chicago in the NFC championship game for the first time since the end of the 2010 season.
– Matt Kelley
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NFL Playoff Predictions: Which Teams Have the Advantage in the Divisional Round? Opta Analyst.
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