President Donald Trump reined in his threats against Iran on Wednesday, after rising tensions over the past few weeks, amid growing anti-government protests there. “We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping… And there’s no plan for executions, or an execution,” he told reporters.
This came after fears peaked that the US would follow through on Trump’s threats against the Iranian regime. He had previously promised “very strong action” if the brutal crackdown on protesters continued.
Trump said he had been assured by “very important sources on the other side” that the killing had stopped. But while he has seemingly pulled back from the brink of an attack – at least for now – there are strong indicators that the US was seriously preparing to strike Iran, and still could.
Military activities by the US and its allies in the region, as well as ongoing protests in Iran, show some of the key factors which could impel Trump to take action.
Ongoing protests in Iran
Anti-government marches have taken place nightly in parts of Iran since last month, with protests spreading from Tehran, the capital. 3,428 people have been killed in the protests, according to the non-profit Iran Human Rights.
Dr David Andersen, an expert on American politics and government at Durham University, said escalating protests were exactly what Trump wanted to see to bring about the fall of the Iranian regime.
“What they want to do is allow the protestors to take over the country on their own. That’s absolutely Trump’s number one desire,” he said. “The Iranian regime is determined to stay in power but the protests seem to be picking up steam, not leaving it behind.”
Iranians blocking a street during a protest in Tehran on January 9, 2026 (Photo: MAHSA / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)Erfan Soltani, a protestor, had been scheduled to be executed on Wednesday, which could have triggered US action. His family told Norway-based Kurdish human rights group Hengaw that his execution had been postponed.
Iranian state media reported that Soltani had been arrested but not that he had been sentenced to death.
However, given the current volatility in the country, it may only be a matter of time before there is another flashpoint or crackdown.
RAF planes deployed to Qatar base
Simon Diggins, a security analyst and former British Army Officer with service in the Middle East, noted that despite Trump’s recent climbdown, “the option of using force continues to exist”, with the US and its allies making changes to their air capacity in the region.
On Wednesday, an RAF Voyager plane used to transport personnel left the UK base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, for Qatar, The i Paper understands.
The Ministry of Defence declined to comment on the flight, but it is likely that the aircraft is being used to move non-essential military personnel from the Qatar airbase.
Voyager aircraft are used for refuelling, which could also suggest the RAF is preparing to take part in a US operation.
An MoD spokesperson said: “We do not comment on details of basing and deployments due to operational security. The UK always puts precautionary measures in place to ensure the security and safety of our personnel, including, where necessary, withdrawing personnel.”
While British forces work closely alongside the US in the Middle East, it is not known if the RAF would take part in any US-led action against Iran, and the government does not comment ahead of operational deployments.
An Iranian woman participates in a pro-Government rally in Tehran on 12 January 2026 (Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Personnel pulled out of Middle East
A UK Government spokesperson said the British embassy in Tehran had been temporarily closed on Wednesday evening, and would operate remotely. Meanwhile, the Foreign Office’s latest travel advice warned of a “heightened risk of regional tension” across the Middle East.
Non-essential military and diplomatic staff have also been withdrawn from regions ahead of potential military action. A UK source said the “security and safety of staff and British nationals are at the forefront of our thinking”.
The i Paper also understands Britain is withdrawing military personnel from a US airbase in Qatar. The UK has around 100 staff at the al-Udeid airbase in Qatar, where the RAF is stationed alongside the US.
What is the likelihood the US will strike?
While Andersen said that US intervention in Iran was still likely, Diggins was more cautious about imminent US involvement.
He noted the events of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and how this change took place over a period of almost a year.
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The US will also be wary of leaving Iran unstable, given it is one of the largest and most powerful countries in the Middle East.
Diggins said that “consequence management” is one of the main things that is likely slowing down the decision from the White House and others about whether to go in to Iran or not.
“Everyone in the region wants the regime to go but the difficulty is how it falls over and what the consequences are,” he added.
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