US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Iran had called to negotiate about its disputed nuclear programme.
It comes as the Middle East country is wrapped up in its biggest anti-government protests in 15 years, with 2,000 people having been reportedly killed as a result.
“A meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what is happening before the meeting,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One.
Analysts have said US intervention could spell the end of the Iranian regime, and handling the country’s controversial nuclear programme in the case of a regime change will be a delicate matter.
The state of Iran’s nuclear programme
Details on the extent of Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain murky after the nation’s conflict with Israel last year.
The 12-day war in June killed nearly 1,200 Iranians and almost 30 Israelis. Over the past week, Iran has threatened to strike Israel if Israel or the US attacks.
Israel and the United States heavily bombed three of Iran’s main nuclear sites, Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, over the course of 12 days in an operation codenamed “Midnight Hammer”.
Author and historian Michael Burleigh told The i Paper: “Trump claims he obliterated all their underground nuclear sites where they enrich uranium. Clearly, he’s not necessarily going to admit that it didn’t work and do it again, otherwise he’s admitting to his own failure.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt with US President Donald Trump aboard Air Force One on Sunday (Photo: Reuters/Nathan Howard)He noted that Iran still had facilities dedicated to its ballistic missiles, devices which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Burleigh added that such weapons could be used to attack Saudi installations or American bases situated in Qatar.
He said: “The ballistic missile programme which actually was never part of the original nuclear negotiations Iran was involved in.”
The likelihood of US intervention
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had shown he is unafraid to use military options against Iran “if and when he deems necessary”.
Burleigh noted the risk of injuring civilians in the case of US strikes against the Iranian regime, comparing it to the Israeli strikes on Tehran’s Evin prison in June, which resulted in the deaths of about 80 people.
Rescuers sift through the rubble inside in the Evin prison complex in Tehran on 25 June last year after it was hit by an Israeli strike days earlier (Photo: Mostafa Roudaki / mizanonline / AFP)David Dunn, professor in international politics at the University of Birmingham, said: “It’s not clear if American intervention in this conflict would help the cause Trump hopes to achieve, which is a change in regime, because Iran’s main defence in this situation is to say this is all an American plot.”
Leavitt claimed that Iran’s public rhetoric had diverged from the private messaging the US administration has received from Tehran in recent days, adding that she thought Trump had an interest in “exploring those messages”.
Jack Clayton, who published a PhD last year on US foreign policy in the Middle East at Soas (School of Oriental and African Studies), noted that despite Trump’s prolific military interventions in Iran last year, and more recently in Venezuela, the President still seemed determined to be viewed as a “peacemaker”.
He told The i Paper: “I don’t think it’s completely out of the question that Trump decides there could be some deal struck.”
Burleigh warned, however, that the President entering such talks with the regime could run the risk of admitting the legitimacy of the country’s current government, undermining the protesters’ claims.
Could Iran take retaliatory action against US strikes?
Dunn said any attack by the US on Iran would have to also destroy the potential for retaliation from the country, highlighting its capacity for strikes against neighbouring American bases.
He said: “You would have to remove their retaliatory capabilities, which is difficult. It’s not just rockets in Iran, but their allies in Yemen and whether Iranians choose to order terrorist attacks on American assets rather than carry out direct strikes with missiles.”
Clayton felt a retaliatory attack was less likely, describing Iran’s attempts to enter talks as an “act of desperation”.
He said US strikes in the country would be a “game changer” and could spell the end for the Iranian regime as a whole.
“They are offering a bit of an olive branch to the United States given the regime is in a very difficult position. It’s the weakest it’s ever been since it began in 1979,” he added.
The future of Iran’s nuclear programme
Dunn said that while it is unclear what a new regime in Iran could look like if the protesters were to be successful, it was likely the US would continue to monitor the country’s nuclear programme.
He said: “Whether Iran would be prepared to give up their fissile material is another question. The US could make that conditional, by offering to lift sanctions or increase investment in the country.”
He added that the partners in the West could support mechanisms to promote full compliance of Iran with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as well as destroying the country’s supply of uranium which had the capacity to be used as a weapon.
Clayton said: “Depending on the leadership, we might see some more cooperation with the international community, whether that’s through the UN or not. The country may want to continue to use its programme as a way of strengthening its geopolitical clout.”
Burleigh added that Iranians generally regarded nuclear power as a point of pride and part of their state. He said that the country was likely to be preparing for the day it runs out of oil, seeking a portfolio of potential energy resources.
“If I were them, I would look around the world at the moment and think, ‘The quicker I get a nuclear bomb, the better’, as it seems to be the one thing to stop someone attacking you.”
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