Britain could provide fighter jets, refuelling tankers and spy planes if the US launched military action in Iran, but any UK forces deployed would likely be “a token effort”, a former RAF commander believes.
Greg Bagwell, an ex-RAF Air Marshal, said the airbase at Diego Garcia, which the UK retains operational control of, could potentially be used as a hub for US planes for any strikes on the Islamic Republic.
But last year’s raid on Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities by B-2 stealth bombers showed US jets can fly to Iran on a round-trip, with the White House potentially preferring to go it alone, he added.
“The UK would have to consider its position in terms of protecting itself and its interests, let alone whether it would choose to take part. And we shouldn’t forget that we still have a joint Qatari-UK Typhoon squadron,” he told The i Paper.
“My gut feeling is that the US don’t need the UK. The amount of assets that we would provide would be a token effort. It wouldn’t be super critical.
“But we do provide some capabilities that are highly prized. We have tankers that are better equipped to tank US Navy aeroplanes because of the system we use.
“Some of our Istar (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance) platforms are some of the best in the world, and match the American capabilities.
“And we have responsibilities for some of the countries around the Middle East that could perhaps come under attack post a strike, and therefore, in more of a defensive role.”
The RAF has three RC-135W Rivet Joint aircraft for carrying out all-weather electronic surveillance (Photo: Neil Bryden/RAF)The RAF has three Rivet Joint surveillance jets, with Istar assets deployed to the Middle East and flown in airspace near Iran, particularly from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus.
Any US action could see surgical strikes against key targets that are critical to the regime’s survival, said Bagwell, who flew missions in Iraq and Kosovo and oversaw combat operations in Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.
During last year’s conflict with Israel, Tehran warned it would take retaliatory action against the US, UK and France military bases and ships if they helped block Iranian missile and drone strikes against Israel.
British military bases across the Arabian Gulf and Cyprus are within range of Iranian strikes from ballistic and cruise missiles.
RAF Typhoons are actively deployed and operate from bases in the region, primarily from Akrotiri for Operation Shader, the international coalition against Isis.
An RAF Typhoon aircraft takes off to join the US-led coalition from RAF Akrotiri to conduct air strikes against military targets in Yemen (Photo: Lee Goddard/UK MOD/Handout via Reuters)If the UK “sticks its head above the parapet” against Iran, the regime will “take notice”, said Bagwell.
“We know how Iran operates. It doesn’t necessarily retaliate conventionally. It sponsors terrorism all around the world,” he said.
“And yes, of course, there could be repercussions, and I think that’s what will be weighing quite heavily on the mind of the UK Government right now as to what can and can’t be done.”
In the Middle East, the United Kingdom Naval Support Facility (UKNSF) is a Royal Navy base in Bahrain, while Port of Al Duqm in Oman is a deep-water logistics hub that can host UK aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines.
Britain also has two airbase facilities where RAF jets operate out of: the Al Udeid base in Qatar, also home to the US regional military command, and the Al Minhad airbase in the United Arab Emirates.
An RAF Typhoon aircraft at the base in Akrotiri, Cyprus (Photo: MoD Crown/Getty)Keir Starmer’s Government would have to authorise the use of Diego Garcia in any US bombing raids on Iran.
But Bagwell added: “America may want to keep this under wraps. If it’s going to be quick and dirty, they may not want to spend too much time and effort co-ordinating with other nations.
“America might just say: ‘Do you know what for half a dozen Typhoons, it’s not worth it. We’ll do on our own.’
“Trump has somewhat changed the rule book here. In the old days, you would have seen America bend over backwards to make it a coalition effort. I don’t think America is quite so shy at the moment in operating unilaterally.”
Intelligence chiefs have been warning for several years about pro-regime violence in the UK.
In 2024, MI5 director Sir Ken McCallum revealed that around 20 potentially lethal plots posing a threat to British citizens and residents had been uncovered since the start of 2022.
Last summer, a parliamentary intelligence committee warned of a growing risk to Jewish and Israeli targets on British soil from Tehran, amid a rising threat from Iranian espionage and assassination squads.
Nick Aldworth, a former counter-terror commander, said: “What we know and have seen and have been promoted very widely by MI5, is that Iran is one of those states that is effectively waging a proxy war on British streets.
“We see that mostly directed towards Iranian dissidents, rather than British institutions and the public at large.
“So my sense is that there is the interest and capability to cause problems on British streets, but to date, we haven’t necessarily seen that as being waged against the public.”
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Whether or not British intervention in Iran would change that would largely depend on the outcome of the current situation in Iran, he said.
“Clearly, if there’s a change in regime in Iran, it is less likely that we will see action on British streets, because a lot of that distant action is waged by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,” he said,
“And one assumes that there’s a regime change, that institution would probably be changed itself.”
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