“We need total access—we need access to the oil and to other things in their country,” Trump said when asked what he’s demanding of acting president Delcy Rodriguez, who has replaced Nicolas Maduro after U.S. forces transported him here. Asked specifically about Venezuela’s oil reserves, Trump said: “We’re gonna run everything.”
To truly appreciate this, note that most analyses of Trump’s plans for Venezuela has proceeded on two tracks. One of them, as Seva Gunitsky explains, posits that Trump envisions a “tripartite” division of the world in which the United States, Russia, and China all bless one another’s domination of their respective regions in a “hegemonic carve-up.” The other sees Trump’s action through the prism of domestic corruption: He’s turning Venezuela over to American oil companies and executives, some of whom bankrolled his reelection.
“Baked into Trump’s views on these so-called spheres-of-influence are opportunities to enrich himself, his inner circle, his donors, and his fellow oligarchs,” Casey Michel, a New Republic contributor and author of the forthcoming book United States of Oligarchy, tells me. “Putin envisions a world in which a small group of imperialists loot their portions of the globe as they see fit. Trump has been envious of this model for a long time. He’s implementing it himself in the Western hemisphere.”
But what matters here is that Trump himself envisions a future for the region—and for U.S. energy oligarchs—along these lines. When Trump insists the U.S. has a right to “access” all of Venezuela’s oil based on a badly distorted story about our victimization by that country—after the U.S. military invaded it and kidnapped its leader—he’s effectively declaring we have the right to take its resources by force. It all smacks of the schoolyard bully sneering, “What did you say about my mother?” to a hapless smaller kid who actually said nothing, then citing this invented insult as justification for forcibly taking his lunch money.
By the way, this may be only the beginning of the corruption here. The American Prospect has a great piece reporting on how elite gamblers gamed prediction markets on the invasion, probably with the help of inside information. The aftermath could present more such opportunities.
We have been told endlessly that many voters who picked Trump were partly frustrated with the foreign military adventurism of bipartisan elites. But that raises a question. Let’s accept for now that many Trump voters are driven by that frustration—that many harbor JD Vance’s stated skepticism that foreign intervention can do good in the world that’s worth our national sacrifice. Will they now decide that Trump’s version of adventurism is a good thing? Now that Trump has laid bare its corrupt, elite-enriching nature, will they go along with a war that’s nakedly about pillage and plunder, either on moral terms or on the grounds that it narrowly benefits the national interest?
As it happens, a new Washington Post poll sheds light here. It finds that only 40 percent of Americans approve of the decision to capture Maduro by military force, versus 42 percent who disapprove, and only 37 percent say this was appropriate without congressional approval while 63 percent say it wasn’t. But among those who voted for Trump, 80 percent support the capture and 78 percent are untroubled by the lack of congressional authorization.
That says something grim about Trump’s view of his own supporters. He thinks they are just as corrupt, amoral, indifferent to the fate of those killed by our military, and eager to pillage weaker countries for the spoils of conquest as he is.
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