Donald Trump’s cavalier intervention in Venezuela has left allies and enemies shaken, much as he intended.
No tears should be shed for Nicolás Maduro, one of the early 21st century’s less pleasant humans.
But gone is any pretence that America will try to spread democracy. It’s gunboat diplomacy, a return to the 1850s. Imperialism is back, with military giants stripping assets from their weaker neighbours.
The abduction of Venezuela’s leader is a rejection of the rules that have shaped (most) global relations since 1945. We don’t know the endgame – and nor, perhaps, does Trump. In time, though, the commando raid will probably embolden fellow strongmen Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
Once again we see the American habit of toppling tyrants without a proper plan for what happens next.
Yes, it’s a strategic play to squeeze out China, Russia and Iran from accessing Venezuelan oil. US oil firms now have the opportunity to replenish their reserves.
But unlocking Venezuela’s oil will require major investment in a climate of uncertainty.
There’s also the question of Venezuela’s motorbike paramilitaries and army power brokers. Why would they be willing to abandon the profits they make from drug trafficking?
So Trump looks likely to leave a messy legacy for his successor. The US President, 79, is starting to show greater signs of ageing, with some aides reportedly struggling to communicate with him in private. It’s a volatile cocktail.
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