We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League game at Turf Moor with our Burnley vs Man Utd prediction and preview. How will the post-Ruben Amorim era begin?
Burnley vs Manchester United: The Key Stats
Manchester United have a 50.7% chance of defeating Burnley, according to the Opta supercomputer. Burnley have won just two of their 19 Premier League matches against Man Utd. Matheus Cunha has scored three goals in his last five Premier League appearances, as many as in his previous 20.You would have probably expected Manchester United to win at Burnley, say, one week ago. But after news broke on Monday morning that Ruben Amorim had been sacked after a turbulent 14 months in the Old Trafford hotseat, who knows what to expect here?
Do the players pull together to show their true level? Has Amorim been holding them back? Will caretaker manager Darren Fletcher inspire a similar upturn to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer? The Norwegian’s reign began with eight straight victories in all competitions, so United fans won’t mind if another former player has a similar impact.
The back end of the team should be Fletcher’s first focus, especially on the road. United kept a clean sheet in just two of their 24 Premier League away games under Amorim, or 8%. Among managers to take charge of 20+ away matches in the competition, only Rob Edwards (0%), Owen Coyle (3%) and Steve Kean (7%) have recorded proportionately fewer clean sheets. The Red Devils’ current run of 15 away league games without shutting out their hosts is their longest since a 17-match streak that ran to April 1978.
Ruben Amorim Sacked
Premier LeagueRuben Amorim Sacked: Man Utd’s Problems Run Deeper Than a 3-4-3 System
11 minutes ago Ryan BensonInjuries have not helped. Absences for Matthijs de Ligt and Harry Maguire left Amorim fielding relatively inexperienced centre-backs Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro together; the former pair may be available here, though, as could Kobbie Mainoo and Mason Mount. AFCON or injury will ensure Amad Diallo, Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo remain unavailable though.
United’s defensive problems may be less of an issue at Turf Moor given Burnley managed just five shots in their last game against Brighton. It was the sixth time they have had fewer than six attempts in a Premier League game this season, at least twice more than any other side.
The Red Devils have also lost just two of their last 36 Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (winning 23). However, vulnerabilities have risen to the surface, even in these theoretically easier matches; after all, United kept just one clean sheet in nine games against sides placed 18th or lower under Amorim.
Fletcher at least has a forward in good form in Matheus Cunha, who has three goals in his last five league games. The Brazilian has also contributed nine goal involvements (five goals, four assists) in his last eight league games against promoted opponents.
Burnley have enough problems before they start worrying about Cunha’s penchant for feasting on former Championship sides, though, as Scott Parker could be without up to 10 players for this clash.
Top scorer Zian Flemming looks unlikely to play, while Josh Cullen (one of only two Burnley players with more than one Premier League assist this term) recently suffered an ACL injury. If Maxime Estève can return, as looks a possibility, that would at least be good news for the defence.
They need all the help they can get as the damning statistics and trivia pile up. Burnley are winless in their last 11 Premier League games (losing nine), only going on longer winless runs within a single top-flight season on four previous occasions in their entire history, most recently from November 2009 to January 2010 (12).
The Clarets have also earned just a solitary point from their last six home league matches. This problem has dogged Parker throughout his managerial career, though, not just at Turf Moor. He has lost 65% of his home Premier League matches as manager (24 from 37), the highest losing percentage of any manager to take charge of 25+ home games in the competition.
Aside from a slightly shaky defence, ordinarily everything would seem to point towards a United win. Their upheaval means Burnley may get few better chances to beat one of the ‘big six’ clubs, though.
Burnley vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
Burnley won their first ever Premier League home game against Manchester United 1-0 in August 2009. However, they’re winless in eight against them since then (losing six), scoring just one goal in the process.
It means that only two of Burnley’s 14 Premier League goals against United have come in home games (14%). This is the lowest share of any side to net 10+ against another team in the competition.
However, while the Clarets have only won two of their 19 Premier League matches against the Red Devils, United will be looking to secure the double over them for just the second time. They won 3-2 at Old Trafford earlier this season, so history suggests they may not get the three points here.
Burnley vs Man Utd Prediction
Manchester United caretaker manager Darren Fletcher has a decent chance of securing a win, with the Opta supercomputer rating the Red Devils’ likelihood of winning at 50.7%.
Burnley won 25.9% of the 10,000 simulations of the game, which left 23.4% to end as a draw.
Not even the supercomputer could foresee Fletcher being in charge when it simulated the match, though. Does the chaos at United tip the scales in the Clarets’ favour?
Burnley vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Burnley: Martin Dúbravka, Kyle Walker, Josh Laurent, Hjalmar Ekdal, Bashir Humphreys, Lucas Pires, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Lesley Ugochukwu, Florentino, Jaidon Anthony, Armando Broja.
Head coach: Scott Parker
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Leny Yoro, Ayden Heaven, Lisandro Martínez, Diogo Dalot, Casemiro, Manuel Ugarte, Luke Shaw, Patrick Dorgu, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko.
Head coach: Darren Fletcher (caretaker)
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Burnley vs Man Utd Prediction: Red Devils Looking for Positive Start to Life Without Amorim Opta Analyst.
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