Nathan MacKinnon won the Hart Trophy two years ago in a hotly contested four-person face, but the final outcome was relatively lopsided in his favor.
MacKinnon had a career-high 51 goals and a franchise-record 140 points in 2023-24, but Auston Matthews had the most goals (69), Connor McDavid had the most assists (100) and Nikita Kucherov had the most points (144). The Colorado Avalanche superstar had the best all-around case for MVP, and collected a little more than 70% of the first-place votes.
The 2025-26 season reached its league-wide midpoint Saturday. If the voters had to choose the MVP of this season to date Sunday, MacKinnon should be the top choice by an even greater margin.
There are a few other candidates who are all having wonderful seasons. MacKinnon’s consistency, a significant part of his candidacy two years ago, remains a big part of why he’s the most valuable player. But the statistical dominance this season, beyond goals and points, helps him clear the field with (relative) ease.
Let’s start with the easy stuff. MacKinnon had 34 goals on Saturday morning, which was nine more than any other player. He was tied with Edmonton’s Connor McDavid atop the scoring race at 70 points, though the latter has played two more games.
The column next to points on the league’s website is plus-minus, which is the RBI of hockey. It’s an outdated measure, and there are other ways to better quantify a player’s on-ice impact.
Still, it is stunning to see the two best players in the world, McDavid and MacKinnon, tied for the league lead in points and then plus-51, followed by plus-1. MacKinnon could be the first player to finish plus-65 or better since 1987.
The next five players in points — McDavid, Macklin Celebrini, Leon Draisaitl, Mikko Rantanen and Nikita Kucherov — are a combined plus-39. Plus-minus is an antiquated stat, but some voters still use it as a data point.
It’s also not wrong, in this case. MacKinnon has been the most dominant player at even strength this season by a wide margin. It’s historical levels of greatness. His even-strength goals (27) alone would lead the NHL. His even-strength points (54) alone would place him tied for sixth.
Here are the really staggering numbers though, all courtesy of Natural Stat Trick. MacKinnon was 80th in 5-on-5 total ice time on Saturday morning among all players.
Colorado has scored 72 even-strength goals with MacKinnon on the ice. The Avs have allowed 18. The next closest non-Avs player in even-strength goals scored is Celebrini, at 54.
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The Avs have created 491 scoring chances when MacKinnon is on the ice at even strength. Again, that is the most in the NHL — Quinn Hughes is second at 480, in 143 more minutes of ice time. The next-closest forward is McDavid, with 66 fewer (425) in 72 more minutes.
Forwards are not supposed to lead the NHL in these accumulation statistics. Defensemen play more, but MacKinnon is having yet another a conventional wisdom-busting kind of season, only amped to 11.
The power play, or more precisely the Avs’ collective struggles on it, is the only reason anyone is close to MacKinnon in the scoring race. MacKinnon has been on the ice for 20 power-play goals, which is tied for 38th in the league, while his 16 power-play points are tied for 10th.
Colorado’s issues with the man advantage are multiple, but bad shooting luck is a part of it. The Avs are shooting 11.05% when MacKinnon is on the ice with the power play. Of the 44 players who have been on for 20 extra-man goals or more, the next lowest 13.25%. McDavid and his PP1 pals in Edmonton are all above 22%.
So who are the other top candidates for league MVP honors at the midway point of the season. McDavid and Celebrini are probably MacKinnon’s toughest competition, with a smattering of other players involved like Kucherov, Moritz Seider in Detroit and Florida’s Brad Marchand.
Everyone else’s case relies heavily on narrative, and the longstanding misplaced idea of placing the most value on helping a mediocre team sneak into the playoffs. This season even more so, because the extreme parity around the league … except at the top of the Central Division.
The middle of this league is so compressed than any team which makes the playoffs as a wild-card, and likely even the other third-place teams outside the Central, will do in part because of far more luck and variance than anyone from those fan bases will want to admit and not because of the heroics of one particular player.
There is also the “how bad would this team be without player X” argument, which ranks right there among hypothetical, unquantifiable arguments with the ones SEC football fans love to make until their teams lose actual games.
Celebrini is having one of the greatest seasons by a teenager of all time. He’s reviving one of the most underrated hockey markets in the sport in rapid fashion.
He has several admirers in the Colorado locker room, and will be the best player in the sport when it is time for McDavid and MacKinnon to take a slight step back.
If the San Jose Sharks make the playoffs, there will be a strong push to make Celebrini the MVP, in similar fashion to when Sidney Crosby won at 19 years old in 2007 after making the playoffs in his second season. But Crosby lead the league with 120 points, six more than anyone else in 2006-07. He didn’t have Prime MacKinnon or Prime McDavid to deal with.
Celebrini should be an MVP candidate, regardless if the Sharks finish seventh or 11th in the Western Conference. If the vote was today, he should collect a bunch of second- and third-place votes. If a voter puts him first or considers him the favorite right now solely because a coin flip or three went San Jose’s way, that’s bad process.
The narrative for McDavid is that he has dragged the Oilers out of an early-season funk and into the Pacific Division lead. He also just had 31 points in 11 games, which is remarkable.
This is an 82-game (or in this case, 41-game) award, though. MacKinnon was the most deserving player two years ago in part because of how dominant he was across the full season.
Edmonton has scored 47 even-strength goals with McDavid on the ice and allowed 46. His expected goals for percentage is better (53.76%) but still not in the same league as MacKinnon’s (62.08%). Celebrini’s xGF% at even strength is 45.79%.
It’s not just the Oilers goaltending, or poor play by teammates. Also, we have the ability to define individual value in better ways now than we have in the past.
It’s the most valuable player of the league, not the best player who had substandard teammates award. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn released the midseason Net Rating for all of the players on the big four Olympic teams Friday, so that includes all of the MVP candidates except for Seider (and maybe Jason Roberton).
This is his version of an all encompassing, WAR-like stat. MacKinnon’s currently pacing at plus-39.2. McDavid is at plus-30.1, and Celebrini is at plus-23.2.
Draisaitl led all skaters last season at plus-30. McDavid led the league two years ago at plus-33, with MacKinnon at plus-32. That’s what an MVP-level season rated out at the past two years.
What MacKinnon is doing this year is on a different level. He’s the midseason MVP, and the debate should really start with who would be second.
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