We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Man City vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Manchester City extended Chelsea’s misery with all three points in 58.5% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of this match. Man City have won their last eight Premier League home games, netting three or more goals in seven of those matches. Chelsea have dropped 15 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, as many as in the whole of 2024-25, while they last dropped more in 2022-23 (18).Due to the abrupt departure of Enzo Maresca on Thursday, expectations surrounding the upcoming game between Manchester City and Chelsea have been swiftly modified.
There had been rumblings of discontent at Chelsea for a short while, but Maresca’s exit did not feel particularly imminent, so it was a surprise to see the Italian become the first manager in Premier League history to leave his role on New Year’s Day when Chelsea announced the news shortly.
Maresca was the Premier League’s Manager of the Month for November, but performances have since dipped, and the club picked up just one win from his last seven league games in charge.
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19 minutes ago David SegarThey drew 2-2 at Stamford Bridge – conceding 3.14 expected goals – last time out against Bournemouth in what was Maresca’s final game in charge of the club.
Bournemouth have not won a match since October, but they’ve taken points from Chelsea twice in this time.
The Blues were not expected to be genuine title contenders this season, but considering they won the FIFA Club World Cup in the summer and the huge value of their young squad, the 15-point gap to league leaders Arsenal at the halfway stage is not a good look.
Extra weight is added to that 15-point disadvantage when considering the following statistic: Chelsea have dropped 15 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, as many as in the whole of 2024-25.
The current favourite to replace Maresca is Liam Rosenior, who has impressed as head coach at fellow BlueCo-owned club, Strasbourg, in Ligue 1.
Calum McFarlane is expected to act as caretaker manager for Sunday’s visit to the Etihad Stadium, while hosts Man City will be looking to inflict some additional damage as they themselves look to make up ground on Arsenal.
City were pushed to their limit on New Year’s Day when drawing 0-0 against Sunderland at the Stadium of Light, and due to Arsenal’s thrashing of Aston Villa on Tuesday, they now trail the Gunners by four points.
Guardiola’s side arguably did enough to win the game in the second half, with Rodri reminding viewers of his masterful interpretation of the defensive midfield role when making a long-awaited return at half-time, but a point ultimately felt fair.
1 – After coming on at half time of Manchester City's game at Sunderland, Rodri led all players on the pitch for passes completed (52), passes completed in the opp. half (28) and line-breaking passes (7). Director. pic.twitter.com/tv5hF7RZBm
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 2, 2026The draw brought to an end an eight-game winning run in all competitions for Man City – they had scored multiple goals in each victory during this run.
Their imperious record at the Etihad Stadium continues, though. They have won their last eight league games in front of their own fans, scoring three or more goals in seven of those games, including in each of the last five.
Chelsea have won their first league game in just one of the last nine calendar years, and it would be a surprise to see them pick up three points here, given the on-field struggles and the off-field turmoil.
They will likely need to find a way to stop Erling Haaland from scoring, and they would do well to study the performances of Nottingham Forest and Sunderland, who kept the Norwegian off the scoresheet in his last two outings.
Those games were both played away from home, though, and shutting him out at the Etihad is a different matter entirely.
Haaland has scored 11 goals in nine Premier League home games this season, netting twice in five different games. The last player to score 2+ goals in more different home games in a season was Haaland himself in 2022-23 (6).
To make matters worse for Chelsea, they will be without Moisés Caicedo after the Ecuadorian picked up his fifth yellow card of the season, leading to a one-game suspension.
The Blues are also likely to be without first-choice left-back Marc Cucurella again as he continues to struggle with a hamstring problem.
Savinho and Nico González both left the field injured for City against Sunderland, making them major doubts for this match, though Rodri’s return will certainly help, while Jérémy Doku also came off the bench at the Stadium of Light.
Meanwhile, Rayan Aït-Nouri and Omar Marmoush remain unavailable for selection due to their ongoing participation at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Man City vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Man City are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League meetings with Chelsea, their joint-longest run without defeat against the Blues in their league history (also 8 between 1936 and 1949).
Having won four consecutive away league games against City between 2005 and 2008, Chelsea have now won just three of their last 16 visits to the Etihad.
City have only failed to score in one of their last 22 Premier League games against Chelsea, losing 2-0 at Stamford Bridge in December 2018.
Man City vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer rates a Manchester City victory as the likeliest outcome here, with Guardiola’s side making it nine consecutive home wins in 59% of simulations.
Chelsea are believed to have a 19.6% chance of winning, while a draw occurred in 21.4% of simulations.
Man City vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Josko Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Phil Foden, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Josh Acheampong, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Malo Gusto, Reece James, Enzo Fernández, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Alejandro Garnacho, João Pedro.
Head coach: Calum McFarlane (caretaker)
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man City vs Chelsea Prediction: Can City Take Advantage of Managerless Blues? Opta Analyst.
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