Ministers are facing growing calls to review the state pension triple lock – as experts warned the pledge is financially unsustainable and a former adviser to Sir Keir Starmer suggested it should be overhauled.
The guarantee, which ensures the state pension rises in line with whichever is highest of inflation, wage increases or 2.5 per cent, is “becoming increasingly expensive as the population ages and the tax burden on working-age people grows”, experts said.
This year the policy means that from 6 April, the new state pension – given to those who retired in 2016 or later – will hit £12,547.60, a rise of £574.60.
While the triple lock remains popular with voters – with polling carried out by Savanta for The i Paper showing there is public support for increased spending on the state pension – concerns are growing in Westminster and among economists that it is unsustainable for the public finances.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has warned that the lock will be three times more expensive by the end of the decade than it was expected to be when it was introduced in 2011, costing £15.5bn by 2030.
In an article in The Times, Paul Ovenden – who was Starmer’s director of strategy in No 10 from July 2024 to September 2025 – cited pension policy as an example of a “stakeholder state” where decisions are made in Whitehall to please powerful interest groups.
“We don’t have to keep picking the pockets of the productive parts of our economy in order to fund inflation-busting pension increases for millionaires or an unsustainable welfare system,” he said.
Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at the wealth management company Quilter, said the Government should use the opportunity of a review of the pensions system, launched by ministers last summer, to take a fresh look at the triple lock.
He told The i Paper: “The triple lock is becoming increasingly expensive as the population ages and the tax burden on working-age people grows.
“Its volatility has also become more apparent in recent years, with temporary spikes in inflation and wage growth triggering unusually large increases in the state pension. These events pull the policies short comings sharply into focus.“Many pensioners are still feeling the effects of the cost-of-living crisis, and protecting their incomes resonates with voters. But there is a growing debate about fairness. A system designed to protect against poverty now benefits all pensioners equally, regardless of income. Meanwhile, younger generations face rising taxes, weaker job security and less generous private pensions.“Labour’s planned review of the pensions and retirement savings framework offers a crucial opportunity to look again at whether the triple lock remains fit for purpose.
“One potential reform is to link increases solely to earnings, helping align pension growth with the wider economy and creating a more predictable and affordable system.”
The respected think-tank the Institute for Fiscal Studies has backed tying the state pension increase to wage growth.
He acknowledged that any change “must be handled carefully” but urged Labour not to ignore “the long-term pressures the triple lock presents” despite the political risks.Greer added: “Although there appears to be no element of the pension review looking specifically at the triple lock it would be sensible to consider the policy not in isolation but as part of a wider retirement strategy that balances support for today’s pensioners with fairness for future generations. The political risks are clear, but so too is the economic case for reform.”
While many Labour MPs question the affordability of the triple lock, there is a reluctance to change it because of the potential electoral repercussions, particularly in the wake of the backlash the party received over cuts to winter fuel payments.
A minister told The i Paper that views were mixed across government and the Parliamentary Labour Party about whether the lock should be reformed.
One Labour MP said: “While someone needs to reform the triple lock I haven’t detected that that someone is this government to be honest.
“We said we wouldn’t in the manifesto, there are still fingers burned from winter fuel payments”.
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Another Labour MP said: “We need to be way more courageous but [it’s] too late on the triple lock now I think.”
This week, The i Paper revealed that Labour ministers were privately questioning the future of the policy. “Everyone knows the triple lock is insane, even the Tories,” one Labour frontbencher said. “But they’re not going to get rid of it. That’s the problem, isn’t it?”
On Friday, No 10 distanced themselves from Ovenden’s remarks.
A Downing Street source pointed to a statement from the Department for Work and Pensions in November in which it “committed to the triple lock for the rest of this Parliament” which would mean that “millions will see their yearly state pension rise by up to £1,900”.
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