Still bummin’, but gotta do the obligatory post-mortem …
Some final accounting on the deal Tatsuya Imai ultimately took from the Houston Astros, over what was probably a longer, lower-AAV, higher-guarantee offer from the Cubs (among other potential bidders): three years and $54 million guaranteed, with opt outs after each year. There are escalators that will kick in pretty easily if he sticks healthily in the rotation for more than half a season, and those would make it $63 million total. ing fee is about $10 million. So, to give some context on the extreme ends of the possible outcomes: in a world where he pitches very well and opts out, the Astros would be paying about $30 million for one season of Imai. In a world where he flops, the Astros would be paying about $64 million over three seasons. When you view the deal that way, it’s not that hard to see why a 27-year-old pitcher, who has been a star in Japan, but for whom MLB teams very clearly had concerns about the transition, might want this contract over the best longer-term deal he could get. It’s also not that hard to see why not a lot of MLB teams would take this particular structure of a risk. Each of Jon Heyman, Mark Feinsand, and Patrick Mooney confirm that the Cubs were indeed in on Tatsuya Imai up to the end, which is exactly how each of us feared this thing would play out. You could spin this thing in pretty much any direction you want to confirm your priors (“The Cubs are cheap! They couldn’t even top a $54 million guarantee!” or “The Cubs liked Imai but not on a contract that could wind up costing $30 million for one year“), and honestly I am myself divided between a version of multiple reactions internally. There’s the reaction I understand as reality, with the Cubs placing a valuation on Imai, and that number cannot be infinity. If they think he can be X level pitcher in the big leagues, then they set Y level price and have to stick to it. Moreover, for all we know, Imai had a preference for Houston in any case, and the Cubs may have had to go unreasonably high over the top of their deal to convince Imai to come. At some point, you do have to draw a line somewhere and stay on one side of it. But then there’s the reaction that’s gnawing at me today, as it was when the reporting started to come out. Finishing second on a free agent means you *DID* want the player. It means the Cubs *DID* think Tatsuya Imai might be a valuable MLB pitcher, and *DID* want him as part of their rotation plans for 2026 and beyond. There was a price or contract structure they weren’t willing to offer, but they did want the guy. And they did fail to get the guy. Whatever the explanation, that hurts. There’s also the side issue we’ve discussed before: the Cubs clearly want to strengthen their pipeline to Japan, and missing on any big name star Japanese player to whom they were so closely connected is a ding, or at least a missed opportunity. Even if Imai ultimately fails in MLB, there still would’ve been some organizational value in landing him. Elsewhere in the Japanese market, we await a decision from Kazuma Okamoto, who must sign by January 4. I’d expect news in the next day or two on that front, with the Cubs only ever mentioned at the periphery for the corner infield slugger. That doesn’t mean they aren’t in – these things are clearly very secretive – but you don’t get the same sense of pursuit that you got with Imai. The fourth player who was posted, together with Imai, Okamoto, and Munetaka Murakami, hasn’t received a whole lot of discussion, or, it turns out, a whole lot of attention from MLB teams:News: RHP Kona Takahashi may return to Japan for '26 t.co/zGKKkYsdcT
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 1, 2026 From the jump with Takahashi’s posting, there have been concerns about how his pitchability style would translate to MLB, and Feinsand reports that he’s received just one offer so far. Given how much smaller the deals are in Japan, relatively speaking, and given that he’s considering going back, I think that suggests the one offer must be quite modest. It’s not that you wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on Takahashi (he’s only 28, he doesn’t walk anyone, he gets a lot of groundballs), but given the stuff concerns and the extreme lack of strikeouts in the NPB, I don’t know that you’d want to commit to a big contract AND pay a posting fee. So if he’s viewed by MLB clubs as a pure depth/swing guy (of the type that, if a domestic free agent, might expect a few million or a good minor league deal), it might make more sense for him to stay in Japan for another year. Like Okamoto, Takahashi’s posting deadline is January 4. A big anniversary for the players’ union ahead of a very, very big year of bargaining:Sixty years of the MLBPA, narrated by Executive Subcommittee member @Paul_Skenes.As the union's 60th anniversary approaches, we honor the courage and sacrifice of Players who came before us and resolve to continue the fight for workers everywhere. pic.twitter.com/G5A4xVvFl5
— MLBPA (@MLBPA) January 1, 2026 MORE CUBS FROM BLEACHER NATION: Go Ad Free | Subscribe to the BN NewsletterBlackhawks 4, Stars 3 — Three Stars, Key Takeaways #blackhawks t.co/qaem6UxTam
— Bleacher Nation Blackhawks (@BN_Blackhawks) January 2, 2026Caleb Williams Has Had Some Bad Luck on Drops@Michael_Cerami | t.co/YIvOh6EUQE pic.twitter.com/NYefqjKFBQ
— Bleacher Nation Bears (@BN_Bears) January 1, 2026Josh Giddey, Coby White Injuries Represent Unique Opportunity for Bulls t.co/ovrrfzSrdx
— Bleacher Nation Bulls (@BN_Bulls) January 2, 2026Hence then, the article about unpacking the imai deal and miss two more upcoming postings and other cubs bullets was published today ( ) and is available on Bleacher Nation ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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