With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each NFL game throughout 2025. Here’s the outlook for the final week of the regular season.
With some big games that have either win-or-go-home or playoff seeding implications, there’s plenty at stake over the final weekend of the 2025 NFL season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ 13-6 loss to the woeful Cleveland Browns, coupled with the Baltimore Ravens’ 41-24 road win over the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night, meant the 9-7 Steelers and 8-8 Ravens will meet in Pittsburgh with the AFC North title on the line.
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers will take another shot at clinching their first AFC North title since 2020, while Lamar Jackson practiced on Wednesday and could return for the finale.
Aaron Rodgers walks off the field after Sunday’s loss to the Browns. (AP Photo/David Richard)The Carolina Panthers needed to beat the 12-3 Seattle Seahawks at home to clinch their first NFC South title since 2015, but it wasn’t to be in a 27-10 loss that set up another de facto division title game.
The NFC South will be decided in Week 18 when the 8-8 Panthers visit the 7-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are somehow still alive despite losing seven of their last eight games. Though Carolina can also win the division if the Atlanta Falcons stay hot and beat the surging New Orleans Saints to force a tie among three 8-9 teams.
The No. 1 seed and the critical first-round bye that goes with it have also yet to be decided in both conferences. So who will come out on top in these key matchups? We’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the supercomputer and received our win probabilities for each game.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out. And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
More From Opta Analyst
NBAHave the Spurs Provided a Blueprint for Beating the Thunder?
5 hours ago Donald Kolakowski NHLWho Has the Most Goals in NHL History?
1 day ago Ethan Kruger FBSCFP Predictions: The Four Matchups That Will Define the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals
1 day ago Alex KirshnerSaturday’s Predictions
Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Buccaneers 57.6% (as of Wednesday) All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Panthers 26-24 Last Meeting: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 20 (Dec. 21, 2025)Quick Hit: The Panthers can win the NFC South with a win on Saturday. It would be their first time making the playoffs since the 2017 season and their first time winning the division since the 2015 season when they reached the Super Bowl.
Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 51.1% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Seahawks 30-23 Last Meeting: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13 (Sept. 7, 2025)Quick Hit: The 49ers can earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win. They’re 7-1 against the Seahawks dating back to the 2022 season (including the postseason).
Sunday’s Predictions
New Orleans Saints (6-10) at Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Falcons 57.6% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Tied 56-56 Last Meeting: Falcons 24, Saints 10 (Nov. 23, 2025)Quick Hit: Bijan Robinson has recorded 2,255 yards from scrimmage, a new single-season franchise record. He’s on pace to lead the NFL in scrimmage yards and would become the third Falcon to do so all time (2015 Julio Jones, 1981 William Andrews).
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Dec. 11, 2025, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Jason Behnken)Cleveland Browns (4-12) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bengals 73.4% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Bengals 56-48 Last Meeting: Bengals 17, Browns 16 (Sept. 7, 2025)Quick Hit: The Bengals have won four straight games against the Browns, tied for the Bengals’ longest active win streak against any opponent (also: Jaguars). Cincinnati only has two longer win streaks in the matchup all time: seven from 2014 to 2017 and five from 2004 to 2006.
Indianapolis Colts (8-8) at Houston Texans (11-5)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texans 80.1% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Colts 32-14-1 Last Meeting: Texans 20, Colts 16 (Nov. 30, 2025)Quick Hit: Houston, which can clinch the AFC South title with a win and a Jacksonville loss, is riding an eight-game win streak, one away from tying its longest win streak in franchise history (nine in 2018). The Colts are the first team to start 8-2 and miss the postseason since the 1995 Raiders.
Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 84.2% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Titans 34-27 Last Meeting: Jaguars 25, Titans 3 (Nov. 30, 2025)Quick Hit: The Jaguars will wrap up the AFC South title by sweeping the Titans for the fifth instance in franchise history and the second consecutive season. It would be the Jaguars’ first time sweeping the Titans in consecutive seasons. Jacksonville can also earn the No. 1 seed with a win and losses by Denver and New England.
Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) at Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Vikings 70.4% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Packers 66-59-3 Last Meeting: Packers 23, Vikings 6 (Nov. 23, 2025)Quick Hit: Green Bay, which is locked into the seventh seed, allowed season lows in points (six) and net yards (145) in its win over Minnesota in Week 12. It was the fifth-fewest yards allowed by the Packers in their 130 all-time meetings with the Vikings (including the playoffs).
Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1) at New York Giants (3-13)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 61.6% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Cowboys 78-46-2 Last Meeting: Cowboys 40, Giants 37 OT (Sept. 14, 2025)Quick Hit: The Cowboys have won nine straight games against the Giants dating back to October 2021. That’s tied for Dallas’ fourth-longest win streak against a divisional opponent in franchise history and its longest since a 10-game run against Washington from 1997-2002.
New York Jets (3-13) at Buffalo Bills (11-5)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 73.1% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Bills 71-58 Last Meeting: Bills 30, Jets 10 (Sept. 14, 2025)Quick Hit: Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has rushed for multiple touchdowns in 11 games. That’s tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for the second-most such games by any NFL player over this span (Derrick Henry, 12).
Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov. 16, 2025, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)Detroit Lions (8-8) at Chicago Bears (11-5)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 59.0% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Bears 105-81-5 Last Meeting: Lions 52, Bears 21 (Sept. 14, 2025)Quick Hit: Detroit has won three straight matchups versus Chicago, which can lock up the No. 2 seed with a win or a Philadelphia loss to Washington.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 83.5% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Broncos 72-58-1 Last Meeting: Chargers 23, Broncos 20 (Sept. 21, 2025)Quick Hit: The Chargers (5-0) are the AFC West’s only team to defeat the Broncos (4-1) and theNFL’s only team without a division loss this season. The last and only season the Chargers went undefeated in division action was 1961 (6-0). The Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a victory.
Arizona Cardinals (3-13) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 78.6% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Rams 50-41-2 Last Meeting: Rams 45, Cardinals 17 (Dec. 7, 2025)Quick Hit: In their Week 14 win, the Rams tied for the third-most points scored by either team in the 95-game series history, including the postseason.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 63.1% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Chiefs 74-54-2 Last Meeting: Chiefs 31, Raiders 0 (Oct. 19, 2025)Quick Hit: The Raiders look to snap a seven-game home losing streak against the Chiefs, which is tied for their longest home losing streak versus any single opponent (vs. Chiefs 2003-09, vs.Dolphins 1997-2020). Las Vegas is looking for its second home win this season and has won at least two home games in all but two seasons in its franchise history (1961, 1962).
Miami Dolphins (7-9) at New England Patriots (13-3)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 82.4% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Dolphins 63-54 Last Meeting: Patriots 33, Dolphins 27 (Sept. 14, 2025)Quick Hit: Drake Maye can become the seventh player in the last 20 years (since 2006) to lead the NFL in passer rating (currently doing so) while leading his team to the best record in the league. Four of those six previous players went on to win the MVP that season. The Patriots can claim the No. 1 seed with a win and a Denver loss or tie.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye celebrates after running for a touchdown against the New York Jets. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)Washington Commanders (4-12) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 73.1% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Commanders 89-86-5 Last Meeting: Eagles 29, Commanders 18 (Dec. 20, 2025)Quick Hit: Nick Sirianni is 59-25 in his NFL head coaching career. He is one win away from becoming the second head coach in league history to win 60+ games in his first five seasons, joining George Seifert (62). The Eagles can move up to the No. 2 seed with a win and a Chicago loss, but they’ve already announced they plan to rest many key starters.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Baltimore Ravens (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 58.1% All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Steelers 34-25 Last Meeting: Steelers 27, Ravens 22 (Dec. 7, 2025)Quick Hit: The Ravens and Steelers are playing for the AFC North title, with the winner taking the division and the loser missing the playoffs. This will mark the 11th time the Ravens and Steelers have finished first and second in the division (either order), tied with the Eagles and Cowboys for the most such finishes.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
NFL Predictions: Picks, Probabilities and Insights for Every Game in Week 18 Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about nfl predictions picks probabilities and insights for every game in week 18 was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( NFL Predictions: Picks, Probabilities and Insights for Every Game in Week 18 )
Also on site :