Oregon’s pursuit of its first national championship continues Thursday with lengthy odds and a daunting path.
The Ducks are the No. 5 seed in the College Football Playoff and the No. 4 betting favorite in Las Vegas with a bracket that features the No. 1 seed looming in the semifinals.
Their offensive and defensive coordinators are pulling double duty as newly-appointed head coaches of other programs.
Their top receiver remains absent, their defense has been spotty against elite competition and the tournament favorites, Indiana and Ohio State, whacked Oregon by a combined score of 71-41 in the past 12 months.
From our corner of the college football galaxy, there are numerous reasons to doubt the Ducks and just one compelling reason to believe they are destined to emerge as the last team standing on Jan. 19:
A cosmic rebalancing of the same CFP scales that tipped so decisively against Oregon last year.
Everything went wrong for the Ducks in the 2024 postseason when so much looked right, when they strolled into the CFP as the betting favorite, Big Ten champion and nation’s only unbeaten team.
Their reward was a lump of coal disguised as the No. 1 seed: The rust-building layoff between the Big Ten championship and the CFP quarterfinals; the pressure that accompanied weeks spent in the spotlight; the terrible draw that conspired to match them against sizzling Ohio State in a Rose Bowl that got out of hand immediately.
That has all been replaced by a lower seed, longer odds and less attention.
But it’s precisely when everything looks wrong that so much will go right.
Oregon’s third-place finish in the Big Ten resulted in a coveted home game in the opening round. The subsequent blowout of James Madison provided an opportunity to fine-tune execution and grab just enough rest (10 days) prior to the quarterfinal date with a vulnerable No. 4 seed, Texas Tech.
Then comes a potential rematch with Indiana, a foe they know well, in the semifinals. From there, the Ducks would have one last leap, likely against Ohio State or Georgia, for the trophy they have spent two decades chasing as their benefactor, the 87-year-old Phil Knight, looks on.
Our case for Oregon as national champion isn’t rooted in matchups or tactics.
It’s not based on coach Dan Lanning’s expert motivational instincts or the Ducks’ loaded lines of scrimmage or their array of playmakers and all those blue-chip recruits on the depth chart.
In those categories, the differences between Oregon and the other seven teams still standing are on the margins.
Nor is our case based on comparisons to the oh-so-close Oregon teams of the past: The 2010, 2014 and 2024 editions that were within reach of the title but couldn’t finish the deal.
Instead, our admittedly whimsical case for the Ducks leans into two champions that carved unlikely trajectories, that failed when favored and ascended when overlooked:
— Virginia basketball winning the 2019 NCAA Tournament one year after becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed.
— Ohio State football charging to the 2024 CFP championship weeks after the humiliating loss to Michigan in the regular-season finale.
Our case is based on the unknowable, the unpredictable and the unlikely.
On the football gods placing their fingers on the scale and applying just enough pressure that the bounces and the breaks unfold in Oregon’s favor.
On this being the year of the Ducks because the evidentiary trails lead elsewhere.
On something making so much sense precisely because it makes so little sense.
Oregon’s timing looks all wrong. In our view, that makes it ideal.
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