The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include “mailbag” in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
If you missed it, last week’s mailbag focused on the Group of Six’s precarious future, new Pac-12 coaches, the Apple deal gone wrong and a collective bargaining deal for college sports.
How much money did Washington receive for Kalen DeBoer’s buyout? How much did UW pay for Jedd Fisch’s buyout? What was the net gain? — @Huskygrad96
Full transparency: This question was submitted weeks ago, but the Hotline delayed addressing the topic until we had clarity on Washington’s situation. Would Jedd Fisch leave for Florida, UCLA or another opening? Or would he remain on Montlake through the 2025-26 hiring cycle?
Now that it appears Fisch will return for Year 3, the issue of coaching buyouts — for the Huskies specifically and all Pac-12 legacy schools generally — is worth a deep dive.
(We won’t be 100 percent sure of Fisch’s return until the NFL firing/hiring cycle is complete. There are too many potential chain reactions if one franchise dips into the college ranks for a head coach.)
The Huskies emerged from the transition in solid financial shape based on losing Kalen DeBoer to Alabama and hiring Fisch from Arizona: They received $12 million from the Crimson Tide for DeBoer and paid Arizona $5.5 million for Fisch.
But to be clear, there are other costs associated with coaching changes that we are not calculating, including turnover in assistant coaches, coordinators and staff, plus any promised facility upgrades and increases in budgets for support services.
How does Washington’s $6.5 million net gain from the DeBoer-to-Fisch swap compare to other coaching moves across the footprint of Pac-12 legacy schools since the conference imploded Aug. 4, 2023?
The following figures are based on Hotline research and published reports.
UCLA received $1.5 million from Chip Kelly (via Ohio State) when he walked away in February 2024, then paid approximately $6.5 million to DeShaun Foster upon his termination a few months ago and, finally, spent $1.25 million to hire Bob Chesney away from James Madison.
Arizona received $5.5 million from Washington for Fisch and spent $1 million to hire Brent Brennan from San Jose State.
Oregon State paid approximately $4 million to make Trent Bray go away in October.
Cal spent $11 million to dismiss Justin Wilcox in November.
And Washington State collected $4 million from Iowa State in exchange for losing Jimmy Rogers earlier this month.
(We don’t know the buyout terms of Troy Taylor’s contract with Stanford, but the ugly circumstances likely have led to negotiations.)
The buyout figures for four new coaches — Cal’s Tosh Lupoi, Utah’s Morgan Scalley, Oregon State’s JaMarcus Shephard and Washington State’s Kirby Moore — aren’t mentioned because coordinators typically have one- or two-year deals without material buyouts. (Scalley was an internal promotion.)
In that regard, it’s far cheaper to hire a coordinator than a sitting head coach.
Nor have we mentioned Colorado (Deion Sanders), Arizona State (Kenny Dillingham) and Oregon (Dan Lanning), where the cash outlay has taken the form of raises, not buyouts.
All in all, the 12 legacy schools have done well to avoid paying massive amounts to lure away sitting head coaches.
The net cost of the changes outlined above is a mere $6.25 million.
Then again, the Pac-12’s financial situation prior to implosion didn’t put the schools in position to spend lavishly on buyouts.
What do you know about the 2026 College Football Playoff? Will the new Pac-12 have a seat at the table? — @jimmy0726
We know the 2026 season marks the start of a new contract cycle with ESPN, which will pay the CFP approximately $1.1 billion annually through 2031.
We know the memorandum of understanding signed by the 10 conferences and Notre Dame in the spring of 2024 grants governing authority to the SEC and Big Ten, which are required to consult with the other leagues, particularly the ACC and Big 12, before finalizing any format changes.
And we know the SEC and Big Ten differ on access, with the former favoring a model based on at-large teams and the latter favoring automatic qualifiers.
Essentially, the new Pac-12 has a seat at the kids’ table, along with the American, MAC, Conference USA, Mountain West and Sun Belt. But as any parent knows, how the kids’ table behaves can impact everyone’s enjoyment of the meal.
For all the talk about eliminating the Group of Five’s automatic bid — it will be the Group of Six next season when the new Pac-12 comes online — the threat of legal action looms over the negotiations.
If half of the Football Bowl Subdivision attempts to prevent the other half from participating in the CFP, an antitrust lawsuit will come fast and furious.
Or have you forgotten the Senate’s antitrust subcommittee hearings on the BCS?
Will the Notre Dame-USC football rivalry be revived at some point, or is it gone for good? — @MarcSheehan006
We expect a revival, although it could be delayed a few years because of Notre Dame’s schedule for the rest of the decade.
The hiatus announced last week was major news across college football, especially within USC’s constituency. Fans and former players alike are furious.
The Hotline views the situation as deeply unfortunate but also as:
1) An unintended consequence of the Trojans’ move to the Big Ten that was hailed by so many of the same constituents who are now irate over the pause in the Notre Dame series, and
2) Another example of the College Football Playoff’s ever-expanding influence over the sport.
Qualifying for the CFP is the endgame for the Trojans just as it is for their blue-blooded peers from Columbus to Athens to Austin. Everything else is ancillary and expendable … except, of course, for the Big Ten schedule.
The Trojans are committed to nine conference games that are daunting enough without having to make the mid-October trip to South Bend every other year.
Ideally, the USC-Notre Dame series should be played Week 0 as the official kickoff to the regular season.
We’re skeptical of the involved parties reaching a clean and sensible resolution — this is college football, after all.
Hopefully, the Irish will agree to move the game to the front of their schedule once a series of home-and-home matchups currently under contract with Auburn, Texas and Alabama are complete.
What happens to a guy like John Mateer, who was awarded $3 million to be the savior at Oklahoma but fell short of expectations? Will he get another $3 million or take a pay cut? — @CelestialMosh
Don’t believe everything you read and hear about NIL contracts. In fact, don’t believe most of what you read and hear.
When speaking on background with reporters, agents frequently inflate the terms of deals with NIL collectives in order to lure other clients.
Also, the dollar figure itself can be misleading even when accurate.
Let’s imagine the published reports of Mateer receiving up to $3 million in NIL compensation are correct.
We don’t know if he signed a one-year agreement or a multi-year deal. We don’t know how much was guaranteed and how much was performance-based. And we don’t know if there’s a floor to the amount he’s eligible to receive. (Cut an athlete’s pay too much, and he/she becomes a flight risk.)
NIL rules vary by the state, the school and the collective, and very little is available for public inspection.
Also, Mateer’s deal was signed last winter, when he transferred from Washington State to Oklahoma but before revenue sharing became the law of the land. How much did he earn from the school itself?
Our hunch is that Mateer didn’t receive $3 million fully guaranteed in a multi-year NIL deal. But the reality is anyone’s guess.
Washington had such a strong finish against Boise State. Are we crazy to think coach Jedd Fisch would be better off staying put than leaving for another job? The next three years look bright. — @Moneyline_RAY
There are plenty of reasons to believe Fisch should remain on Montlake for the foreseeable future but one reason to presume a wandering eye: his resume.
As many fans are undoubtedly aware, Fisch has changed jobs every two or three years for decades, and we have every reason to think he would have left UW for Florida or Michigan if given the opportunity.
Washington has plenty to offer. How many other programs qualified for the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl four times from 2014-24? How many have qualified for the CFP under two coaches?
Also, the Huskies are well-positioned to thrive in the NIL era given the enormous wealth within the Seattle business community.
But as Fisch knows well, there are institutional challenges rooted in UW’s stadium debt and its half-share status with Big Ten media revenue.
Washington is one of the top 20 coaching jobs in the country, but it’s arguably No. 6 in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, USC and Oregon.
Wondering how much North Texas was considered by the Pac-12 during its expansion stage? — @Sir Trojan
A reasonable question — and one that we have pondered — given the Mean Green’s ascent this season.
The details likely will remain sealed forever, but the Hotline has good reason (very good reason) to believe North Texas was considered for expansion as part of a package deal with other American schools but did not receive serious consideration in tandem with Texas State.
In other words, the Pac-12 might have added North Texas in order to make the revenue and scheduling math work if a combination of Memphis, Tulane and South Florida (and perhaps UTSA) were willing to make the jump.
And to be clear: We’re skeptical the Mean Green would have agreed to leave the American without the aforementioned schools.
For Texas State, the Pac-12 represents a clear upward move in the conference pecking order: more money, better platform, stronger reputation.
That was not necessarily the case for North Texas.
With Gonzaga jumping to the Pac-12, does San Diego risk losing revenue or institutional leverage by staying in the West Coast Conference? Might joining a league like the Big Sky make more financial sense? — @CurtisBlack
Generally, a voluntary move down the conference hierarchy is the fastest path to termination for university presidents and athletic directors.
The WCC took a massive hit with Gonzaga’s decision to leave for the rebuilt Pac-12, but it remains a better fit competitively and institutionally for the Toreros than the Big Sky.
One ghastly scenario to illustrate our point: San Diego moves into the Big Sky only to have the best football and basketball programs in the Big Sky up and leave (for the Mountain West) a few years later.
Part of the risk for the Toreros is untethering themselves from a basketball-centric conference and joining a collection of football-playing schools. For all the realignment moves across the Mountain and Pacific time zones, the WCC continues to work for the remaining members.
The Toreros are better off associating with private schools on the West Coast that don’t play football.
The Big Sky is terrific in its own regard, but it’s not right for San Diego.
Why do you call Oregon State’s JaMarcus Shephard and Washington State’s Kirby Moore “rookie” coaches while not saying the same thing about Tosh Lupoi at Cal? — @OS_Beaver
Lupoi is a rookie head coach, and the Hotline has never said or suggested that he’s anything else. You’re presuming some sort of bias that does not exist.
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Kyle Whittingham to Michigan: On the Utah backlash and his fit in Ann Arbor CFP and bowl picks: Oregon rolls; Miami, Georgia and Alabama cover Washington State season recap: Grading Cougars (7-6) under Jimmy Rogers Big 12 MBB power rankings: Arizona, Iowa State on top and undefeated WBB power rankings: UCLA, USC, Stanford top initial Best of the WestWhat the Hotline hasn’t done — yet — is publish a column devoted to Lupoi’s challenge in Berkeley that mirrors the versions we authored on Shephard in Corvallis and Moore in Pullman (or Tavita Pritchard at Stanford, for that matter).
Our coverage of the Bears’ hiring process focused not on Lupoi specifically but on a related (and significant) news development: The University of California quietly approved $45 million in support for Cal athletics that can be used to offset football expenses, including coaching staff changes.
The payments, scheduled in three annual installments, are in addition to the $30 million in Calimony cash from UCLA that we knew about.
Lupoi played for Cal and spent four seasons on the coaching staff. In that regard, his learning curve isn’t as steep as those facing Shephard and Moore, who don’t have ties to OSU and WSU, respectfully.
But make no mistake: There are more similarities than differences between the three hires.
When might we see gambling allegations in college athletics come to the forefront and resemble the allegations like Major League Baseball? Things like badly incomplete passes, mystery fumbles, etc.? — @MrEd315
The MLB isn’t alone. The NBA was whacked by a gambling scandal in November, while the NFL experienced its version in 2023.
Although college football has dodged a major problem, the basketball version is currently immersed in trouble with 13 former players involved.
Allegations include “betting on and against their own teams, sharing information with third parties for purposes of sports betting, knowingly manipulating scoring or game outcomes and/or refusing to participate in the enforcement staff’s investigation,” according to the NCAA.
The transgressions indicate oversight measures are working. Trouble in professional sports serves to heighten awareness at the collegiate level. And NCAA president Charlie Baker has been public in his staunch opposition to prop bets.
But a scandal in college football is inevitable.
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