With postings for righty Tatsuya Imai and corner infielder Kazuma Okamoto coming just after the calendar flips to 2026, and with the Chicago Cubs still popping up in what thin rumors and speculation we see on these two guys, I said something off the cuff for fun.
Get ’em both:
Maybe the math won't work in the end, but it'd sure be fun as heck if the Cubs landed both Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto.
— Brett Taylor (@Brett_A_Taylor) December 23, 2025I hadn’t really put any more thought into it than wanting both of the players on the 2026 Cubs.
After I’d said it, though, there was a part that kind stuck with me over the last few days. That part about math.
What I meant at the time was that maybe Tatsuya Imai gets a $25 million AAV on his deal (or whatever), and maybe Kazuma Okamoto gets a $20 million AAV on his deal (or whatever), and that would put the Cubs well over the first tier of the luxury tax heading into the season. That may not be something they’re willing to do, as frustrating as we find that. The math on these deals may simply not work out for the Cubs to double-dip.
But that’s not the entirety of the math discussion, is it? Maybe this bore a little more thought. Specifically, about the efficiencies that might come from adding two Japanese stars to a roster that already includes two other Japanese stars.
When we talk about the Cubs building out a pipeline of Japanese talent, and/or inroads with the baseball community in Japan, we’re typically talking about one or both of two things: (1) getting future Japanese players to want to sign with the Cubs, and (2) developing a larger fan base/revenue base internationally. Those are indeed major components of a process that looks to Japan as a part of your organizational operation, and both can dramatically impact the success of the Chicago Cubs in the years ahead.
What we don’t always look at quite as closely is the United States part of the ledger. Doing that, I could make an argument that there’s a good bit more incremental value in each additional Japanese star you add to your MLB club.
Consider first, at a very basic level, the costs associated with helping to acclimate a Japanese player, and setting him up to succeed in a new league, a new country, and a new city. If you want to do it well, that means tons of very specialized support services – training, nutrition, communication, family support, etc., etc. Becoming organizationally competent on those fronts is probably subtly expensive, and there are undoubtedly efficiencies gained the more you do it. Especially if you’re doing it concurrently with lots of Japanese players at the same time. Indeed, the effective “price” goes down with each additional Japanese player you add.
Consider now the baseball side. Transitioning from the NPB to MLB, we know, is a very challenging thing. There are meaningful differences between the leagues, and some organizations have gotten better/will get better at helping players overcome those differences and thrive in MLB.
Not only that, but imagine an organization that is so good at helping train up Japanese players in MLB that they can actually get better production from those players than any other organization could get. If you could pull that off, then suddenly a “$20 million player” from Japan is actually worth more to your organization than any other organization! It might be “cheaper” – in terms of buying wins – for you to spend $20 million on a Japanese player than to spend $20 million on a domestic free agent who projects similarly in a neutral organization!
And lastly, consider the human competitor side of all of this. It is impossible for me to imagine there not being just a touch of extra value in having FOUR Japanese players all together on the Cubs at the same time. It’s not just about the cultural and language component, though I do have to believe there’s some comfort there. It’s about the way the players could help each other learn and develop specifically in relation to the transition from NPB to MLB. You’re gonna tell me there aren’t tricks and tips and valuable discussions that could come up throughout Spring Training and the season? Shared experiences that help the guys work through this slump or make this tweak or succeed against that pitcher or hitter?
Play in the NPB is different in a lot of meaningful ways (right down to the baseball itself being slightly different!), so there are absolutely things about playing in MLB that would be different and unique for these guys. Critically, different and unique in ways that aren’t different and unique for guys coming up from Triple-A. Teams can do everything to support an individual player as best they can, but there’s no substitute for a group of multiple teammates all trying to help each other, and understanding that process better than anyone else because they’re actually living it.
Obviously I can’t be sure there is a real effect here like I’ve described, and the samples would all be microscopic at this point. But it tracks logically, right? We talk about organizations becoming “experts” at developing pitching, and we do expect that they will be able to coax better performance out of a pitcher than an average organization. Why wouldn’t same thing be true for players who, though experienced professionals, also need a different kind of development in transitioning over to a new country, city, and league?
If it’s true that an organization can become an expert at maximizing player returns from investments in Japan, then the “math” question is transformed. There could be efficiencies all over the place that might make a Tatsuya Imai-Kazuma Okamoto combination work mathematically for the Cubs right now in a way that a Ranger Suarez-Eugenio Suarez combination would not (picking random examples who might make similar money in 2026).
I think I’ve really talked myself into this. The Cubs absolutely should try to sign both Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto. I mean, I already thought that about them individually, but now I’m really on board with the Cubs specifically trying to get both.
Buuuuuut I have to remember there is a massive caveat to all of this: the signings would still have to make some bare minimum level of sense to the Cubs, internally, for any of this to matter.
That is to say, the extra value here is not $50+ million. So if the Cubs don’t actually love Imai and/or Okamoto, and if their price tags go tens of millions of dollars above where the Cubs value the players, then, yeah, these are probably all good points made in a situation to which they don’t apply. The extra value of four Japanese players at once on your club is probably closer to a tie-breaker situation than a titanic shift in player valuation.
It’s kind of a separate point, but I’ll reiterate something here at the close that we’ve said before, because I don’t want to leave this post without mentioning it: Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga are both free agents after 2026. Maybe the Cubs don’t care about not having a Japanese star on the team in 2027 and beyond, but my guy – and all logic – tells me they would really like to continue this thread, if at all possible. So landing at least one of Imai or Okamoto seems like it would have a little extra value for the Cubs, specifically, and having both of them under contract for 2027+ would seem all the more valuable on that whole “continuation” front.
One other don’t-want-to-fail-to-mention-it note: the Cubs are also bringing Tyler Austin back from Japan after he played half a decade there. Since he has MLB experience and is from the United States, I’m sure the transition is very different for him. But, hey, he’ll nevertheless be transitioning between leagues, and there may also be some value for him in having, for example, a teammate like Seiya Suzuki to talk to.
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