We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. It’s a massive game between two of the top four.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
Chelsea have a 42.7% chance of defeating Aston Villa in this match, according to the Opta supercomputer. The Blues have lost two of their last three Premier League home games against Aston Villa. Morgan Rogers has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any other English player across the opening 17 matchdays this season (10).Chelsea and Aston Villa start Matchday 18 fourth and third in the Premier League table respectively. Yet the seven points between them mean the Blues are as close to 15th points-wise as they are to the Villans. They might be neighbours in the table, but they have very different ambitions.
Unai Emery’s men look unstoppable. Aston Villa have won each of their last 10 matches in all competitions and can equal their all-time club record of 11 consecutive victories, set in both September 1897 and March 1914, with a win here.
If we focus purely on league football, it’s still over a century since the club had a run this good. Villa have won their last seven league games, last having a longer run in the top-flight in 1910 (nine).
The Villans also have a good record in the capital in recent times. They have won 12 of their 21 Premier League away games against London sides under Emery (losing five), more than they had in their previous 59 (when their record was won 11, drawn 10 and lost 38).
Chelsea have found it tougher going against Villa in London in recent times, too. Having scored in 21 consecutive Premier League home games against the Villans between December 1998 and September 2021 (bagging 50 goals in total), Chelsea have since failed to score in two of their last three. The teams played out a goalless FA Cup draw in west London in 2024, too.
Strangely, if one thing favours Chelsea here, it may be that Villa are having a better league campaign than them. Enzo Maresca’s world champions are unbeaten in the three Premier League games they’ve played this season against teams starting the day above them in the table. They beat Liverpool 2-1, Tottenham 1-0, and drew 1-1 with Arsenal.
Their record also highlights that they have occasionally struggled in what appeared theoretically easier fixtures. As well as recently losing at Leeds, Chelsea have suffered two home defeats in the Premier League this season, with Brighton (1-3) and Sunderland (1-2) collecting victories at the Bridge.
If they lose here, the Blues will have lost more home league matches this term than they did in Maresca’s first full campaign in 2024-25 (two). The sight of a red-hot Villa team pulling up in the car park might strangely be just what Chelsea need.
A big problem has been that nobody has emerged as the reliable goal-getter that top teams normally have. Chelsea’s top scorers in the league this season (Pedro Neto and João Pedro) have netted just five goals each. After 17 games of a Premier League campaign, only on three occasions has Chelsea’s top scorer netted fewer – 4 in 2022-23, 3 in 2015-16 and 4 in 1995-96.
Injuries have played a part. Had Cole Palmer made more than five starts then he’d likely have more than two goals, for instance. He did score in the last match at Stamford Bridge (against Everton) so will be important here. Maresca has said Liam Delap and Estêvão “are probably available for Villa” but Levi Colwill and Roméo Lavia are out.
The home side can at least call upon Enzo Fernández. He has created more chances from open play (24) and made more passes breaking the opponent’s defensive line (17) than any other Chelsea player in the Premier League this season. As impressive as that is, Fernández can’t match the recent impact of Villa’s Morgan Rogers.
Rogers’ Rise
Premier LeagueFrom Sarcastic Applause to Standing Ovations: Morgan Rogers Played His Way into Confidence and Now Looks Unstoppable
16 minutes ago Ryan BensonHe could become the third Villa player to net 2+ goals in three consecutive appearances in the Premier League after Dean Saunders (1992) and Dion Dublin (1998). Rogers has also been directly involved in more Premier League goals than any other English player across the opening 17 matchdays this season (seven goals, three assists).
Emery will be without Ross Barkley, Evann Guessand and Tyrone Mings, and maybe Pau Torres too. But if he’s got Rogers, then Villa have a chance here.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
The teams each won their home game in the Premier League head-to-head last season. Chelsea’s 3-0 victory at Stamford Bridge came thanks to goals from Nicolas Jackson, Fernández and Palmer.
Villa were unbeaten in four visits in all competitions prior to that, though. With the Blues also undefeated for four Villa Park meetings before last season, this matchup has rarely favoured the home team in recent times.
Perhaps it is Emery who holds the key. Villa have won three of their five Premier League games against Chelsea under him (with just one defeat), as many as in their previous 20 against the Blues before the Spaniard’s arrival (of which 14 were lost).
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction
The Opta supercomputer factors in underlying performance and not just the form guide. This helps explain why Chelsea are its favourites for this match.
The Blues took three points in 42.7% of the 10,000 simulations of the game. Aston Villa prevailed 30.6% of the time, with a draw the outcome in 26.7% of the run-throughs.
Villa’s remarkable winning run will have to end eventually but will it be at Stamford Bridge on Saturday? The supercomputer seems to think so.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Reece James, Moisés Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Alejandro Garnacho, João Pedro.
Head coach: Enzo Maresca
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Matty Cash, Victor Lindelöf, Ezri Konsa, Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana, Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn, Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Chelsea vs Aston Villa Prediction: Can Villa Extend Their Winning Run to 11 Games? Opta Analyst.
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