Aston Villa are the surprise name in the Premier League title mix as we enter the festive season. We look ahead to Sunday’s big game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Man Utd prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs Man Utd: The Key Stats
Aston Villa are favourites to continue their winning run, beating Manchester United in 57.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Villa are aiming to win a 10th game in a row in all competitions. Man Utd captain Bruno Fernandes could become the first player in Premier League history to provide an assist in six consecutive away games.Aston Villa have been in spectacular form recently and will look to maintain their momentum at home to Manchester United on Sunday, with the Red Devils coming off the back of a thrilling 4-4 draw with Bournemouth on Monday.
Unai Emery’s side are looking to bring up two separate winning streaks of 10 games here.
They have won their last nine matches in all competitions, last winning more games in a row between January and March 1914 (11).
Villa have also won nine consecutive home games, having already enjoyed one 10-match win streak at Villa Park under Emery between March and September 2023. The Spaniard could now become just the second Villa boss to have two separate runs of 10 home wins in a row, after George Ramsay (five different streaks between 1888 and 1905).
There has been plenty of talk about whether Villa’s results are sustainable, though, with Emery’s team overperforming at both ends of the pitch.
Only Tottenham (+9.7) have outperformed their expected goals (xG) by a greater margin than Villa (+7.9, 25 goals, 17.1 xG) across the first 16 matchdays of 2024-25, with Emery’s side ranking 15th in the division for xG and joint-bottom for xG per shot (0.09, level with Sunderland).
Villa have also conceded 4.9 goals fewer than anticipated based on their expected goals against (xGA). They have given up just 17 goals from 21.9 xGA.
However, a lot of their xG overperformance comes from the fact they had been so proficient with shots from long range earlier in the season. Villa’s 10 goals from outside the box this season is at least two more than any other team in the Premier League in 2025-26 (Bournemouth have eight) – only four teams scored more goals from distance through the entirety of last term (14 – Manchester City, 11 – Wolves, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea). That is despite Villa’s 65 shots from the 18-yard line or beyond being only the ninth most in the division.
We did note earlier this week, though, that in recent games Villa have improved their ability at creating higher-quality chances, scoring more goals from inside the box.
Aston Villa’s Title Challenge
Premier LeagueHow Close-Range Goals Have Made Aston Villa’s Title Challenge More Sustainable
2 days ago Ali TweedaleMorgan Rogers has been at least partly responsible for Villa defying the data, netting a league-high three goals from outside the area this season, while Youri Tielemans and Matty Cash both have two such goals to their name.
After scoring twice in last week’s 3-2 victory at West Ham, including a stunning winner from long range, Rogers has been involved in eight goals in his last 11 Premier League games (five goals, three assists). However, each of his last six goal involvements have come away from home.
He will hope to get plenty of space against a Man Utd team who sparkled in attack against Bournemouth but gave up plenty of opportunities at the other end. If not for two big saves from Senne Lammens to deny David Brooks, the Red Devils could have even lost the game in second-half stoppage time.
But United’s two highest non-penalty xG tallies in Premier League matches this season have come in their two most recent matches (3.5 in a 4-1 win at Wolves, and 3.4 versus Bournemouth).
United were especially fluent in attack during the first 45 minutes on Monday. Against the Cherries, they produced the second-highest non-penalty xG figure (2.49), the most shots (17) and the joint-most touches in the opposition’s box (30) of any team in the first half of a Premier League match this season.
Ruben Amorim’s side will be without the suspended Casemiro at Villa Park, while Bryan Mbeumo, Noussair Mazraoui and Amad Diallo are absent due to their participation in the Africa Cup of Nations, so they may have to rely more heavily on Matheus Cunha, who has attempted eight shots in each of his last two games.
Cunha leads all players in the Premier League for carries ending with shots (18) this season, also tallying six that ended with a chance created. The Brazilian averages 12.1 metres per progressive carry this campaign – further than any other United player.
Bruno Fernandes could also play further forward in Mbeumo’s absence. He scored United’s third goal against Bournemouth with a stunning free-kick, and has now both scored and assisted a goal in back-to-back Premier League matches – the only player to do so in three consecutive games for United is Ryan Giggs in April 2003.
And should Fernandes assist a goal here, he will make a piece of Premier League history. No player has ever assisted in six consecutive away games in the competition, with the Portugal star currently on a five-match streak.
Aston Villa vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
Though Manchester United enter Sunday’s game as underdogs, they can point to an exceptional record at Villa Park, and against the Villans in general.
Indeed, the Red Devils have won 41 Premier League games against Villa, with 18 of those victories coming at Villa Park. Only United themselves, against Everton, have beaten a single opponent more often both overall and on the road in Premier League history (42 wins overall, 19 away).
Villa have won just one of their last 26 Premier League home games against Man Utd (9 draws, 16 defeats), beating them 3-1 in November 2022 in Emery’s first match in charge.
United have also won their last two away Premier League matches, last winning three in a row in February 2024. However, only Manchester City (46) have won more home Premier League points in 2025 than Villa’s 40.
Aston Villa vs Man Utd Prediction
Villa are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites ahead of this game, winning 57.2% of the model’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
United are assigned a 20.6% chance of victory, with 22.2% of projections finishing level.
In addition to being third favourites for the title, Villa are assigned a 77.8% chance of achieving UEFA Champions League qualification, according to the supercomputer’s season predictions.
United’s hopes are rated at just 9%, with the Red Devils making it into the UEFA Europa League in 8.8% of scenarios.
Aston Villa vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Marco Bizot, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Victor Lindelöf, Ian Maatsen, Boubacar Kamara, Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans, John McGinn, Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins.
Head Coach: Unai Emery.
Man Utd: Senne Lammens, Leny Yoro, Ayden Heaven, Luke Shaw, Diogo Dalot, Kobbie Mainoo, Manuel Ugarte, Patrick Dorgu, Bruno Fernandes, Mason Mount, Matheus Cunha.
Head Coach: Ruben Amorim.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Man Utd Prediction: Will Unai Emery’s Men Secure 10th Straight Win? Opta Analyst.
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