The Detroit Tigers are holding an ace, and everyone in MLB wants to know what they’re going to do about it. We break down the equation from every angle.
In Tarik Skubal, the 29-year-old left-hander who has now won back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards, the Tigers have developed a pitching monster.
The question is whether they will keep him.
Skubal is set to reach free agency after the 2026 season, at which point the bidding for his services is likely to soar past all-time marks for pitchers both in total value ($325 million for Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and average annual value ($36 million for Gerrit Cole). Following in a recent lineage of superstars on the cusp of a payday, the conversation has turned to trade.
Scott Harris, the Tigers’ president of baseball operations, has made it clear he’s open to listening. “I don’t believe in untouchables at any level,” he told MLB Network during the Winter Meetings.
Harris has helped revive a club that saw a rebuild go up in smoke before he arrived at the end of the 2022 season. With two straight playoff appearances and a highly touted crop of prospects rising through the minors, Harris said his “job is to make this organization better,” but there are a lot of variables to weigh.
Including when and how the “better” would be measured.
With the very idea of a Skubal trade building pressure in the baseball atmosphere, let’s walk through those key variables in the Tigers’ calculus.
Skubal is a Historically Elite Ace
It feels important to establish the considerable gap between Skubal and other offseason options, like free-agent starters Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez or trade candidate Freddy Peralta of the Brewers.
Valdez and Peralta have been the best pitchers on strong postseason teams.
But Skubal is a world-changer. He can nudge a non-contender into October, or a contender into favorite status. His total accumulated raw value (RV) in 2025 was -55.4, which led the majors and was far ahead of everyone not named Paul Skenes (-52.2).
Suarez is perhaps the next best bet available at -22.8, while Peralta is at -15.3 and Valdez is at -13.3. That extra oomph resides in consistent dominance, in the utter elimination of walks and hits and homers.
Skubal’s 27.8 K-BB% in 2025 was a top-10 mark of all time among qualified starters and his 148 whiff+ was No. 1 among qualified starters and well ahead of Garrett Crochet’s next-best 138.
Each of his seasonal ERAs has been lower than the last, culminating (for now) in last season’s 2.21 mark over 195.1 regular season innings, which amounted to a 187 ERA+, a park- and era- adjusted measure, beating even his 174 ERA+ in 2024.
Pitching is the fickle art at the heart of a cruel game. Mastery comes and goes. Someone manages a similar stroke of wonder just about every year — there have been 82 qualified pitcher seasons since integration in 1947 with a 174 ERA+ or better — but almost no one sustains it. Skubal just became the 11th to do it more than once.
So yes, pitchers get traded. Really good ones. But reigning Cy Young winners?
Skubal would be the first to be dealt in the offseason immediately following the honor since R.A. Dickey after 2012, which was a bit of a special circumstance with the late-career knuckleballer. Before that, you have to go back to Roger Clemens in 1998.
The Tigers Will Not Be Frontrunners to Sign Skubal in Free Agency
That excellence will come with a price tag soon enough. While his final year of team control is projected to cost just $17.8 million, Skubal is steaming toward a record payday next winter. The Tigers have to consider whether they are prepared to compete in that bidding war.
Given that Skubal employs Scott Boras as his agent and that he’s tracking toward the largest contract in pitching history, we can severely discount the possibility of an extension before he reaches free agency.
So Detroit would be squaring off with the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, New York Mets and other financial behemoths, all with one good reason or another to prioritize Skubal.
In the 2010s, the Tigers counted themselves among the teams willing to shell out top dollar for top players, frequently running top-10 payrolls under late owner Mike Ilitch. They have not, however, entered the season even in the top half of MLB spending since he died in 2017.
On one hand, that hints at the capacity for his son, current controlling owner Chris Ilitch, to spend more. On the other, the pattern (and the hire of Harris, who arrived from the splurge-averse Farhan Zaidi tree) says it would be out of character to pony up something around $40 million a year for a pitcher.
Skubal is 29 and Racking Up Heavy Workloads
Since returning from flexor tendon surgery on July 4, 2023, Skubal has been the best pitcher in the world. And also one of the most heavily worked pitchers in the world.
Including his overpowering postseason work, Skubal ranked second in the majors with 216 innings pitched in 2025. That followed 211 frames in 2024. Only the Giants’ Logan Webb has thrown more regular season innings than Skubal’s 467.2 since that day in 2023, and no one within 100 innings has managed a better ERA.
He already had a Tommy John surgery back in college. Even though the surgeon reported his repaired UCL looked pristine in 2022, throwing 98 mph heat and (perhaps more dangerously) sliders that have an average max velocity of 93.9 mph is very often a precursor to injury.
Risk is always a part of the equation for pitchers, and it’s easier to stomach for elite pitchers.
The Tigers, though, would likely find it harder than some other potential employers to bridge the gap value- and performance-wise should Skubal go down on a big contract or, heaven forbid, during this upcoming contract year.
The AL Central Remains Ripe for the Taking
Detroit’s back-to-back October appearances under Harris and manager A.J. Hinch require some complicated attribution.
The 86- and 87-win seasons that earned wild-card berths can and should be viewed as evidence of the franchise’s progress, yes, but also a sign of the AL Central’s relatively charitable competition. The Chicago White Sox were historically bad in 2024, and then Chicago and the Minnesota Twins were the American League’s two worst teams in 2025.
Even after a scorching start, Detroit allowed the Cleveland Guardians to catch them and win the division.
The outlook remains positive for the Tigers. In 2026, the team’s position-player grouping will again count on the consistency of Gleyber Torres (129 RV+), the thump of Kerry Carpenter (120 RV+), while hoping Riley Greene (109 RV+) can lead a group of younger bats in consolidating gains. That group includes Dillon Dingler, Spencer Torkelson, Parker Meadows and Colt Keith.
In this division, the Tigers look like the favorites. But Skubal is the cornerstone. If anything, the trips to October accentuate his linchpin status and the precarious nature of their team as presently constructed.
Over the past two seasons, the Tigers are 42-20 in Skubal’s starts and 131-131 in all other games.
Detroit’s Talent is More Likely to Peak in 2027 or 2028
Really, Detroit’s front office is counting on the cavalry.
Middle infielder Kevin McGonigle and center fielder Max Clark are two of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. McGonigle’s hit tool and consistent hard contact have evaluators salivating, with Baseball Prospectus naming him the sport’s No. 1 prospect over the summer. Others like Josue Briceño and shortstop Bryce Rainer may not be far behind.
While McGonigle’s trajectory speaks to a player who could make significant contributions this season, the Tigers can’t reasonably count on impact from any of them until 2027. And as many of their recent top prospects have proven, even the most promising players can’t promise anything.
But remember: This all sounds super exciting in part because McGonigle and Clark haven’t had the chance to fall short of expectations like former No. 1 picks Torkelson and Casey Mize. Some of these guys will fail.
In a less winnable division, or a smaller market, or without the recent postseason appearances, you might be able to convince the neutral observer that trading Skubal is the key to putting the Tigers’ next good team over the top, that the answer is just more exciting young guys. Maybe the Tigers front office is ready to make that case right now.
If this game were purely about playing the odds, it would probably be a winning argument.
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This is ultimately a stare-down with uncertainty.
The Tigers have a relatively sure thing in Skubal’s greatness, but it is hemmed into the short runway of 2026. That’s one season, which in baseball will always mean a magnified level of randomness.
They could alternatively view Skubal’s greatness as a sure thing in terms of value. Detroit would absolutely return a collection of well-regarded players who could help the franchise compete across a wider window if it was to accept a trade offer for Skubal.
The Milwaukee Brewers, whose owner enforces a lower payroll ceiling than the Tigers in a smaller market, dealt Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles ahead of his contract year for young shortstop Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall and a draft pick in the top 40. Burnes was a couple of seasons removed from his Cy Young win and on a less dominant course than Skubal.
The return for the Brewers, who are now attempting to do something similar with Freddy Peralta, is a low baseline for the expected Skubal package. Ortiz, a superlative defender, has not hit nearly as well as expected. Hall hasn’t been able to harness his stuff well enough to stick in the rotation. And the draft pick wasn’t a hit.
The Tigers would be aiming higher than that – likely with eyes on a pitcher ready to step into Skubal’s rotation spot – and it’s very possible their outcomes would exceed Milwaukee’s relative to present expectations. But that’s all it is … possible.
What Does the Calculus Really Point To?
It’s worth reflecting on all these variables in a different way, in light of what’s not possible.
The Tigers couldn’t have made the postseason without Skubal. They likely can’t afford to sign him in the open market (and thus probably can’t afford to sign anyone like him). A huge chunk of the other 29 teams can’t find anyone like him, so they’re willing to expend that precious, untainted capital that is unproven (and thus untainted) talent.
Given the options, it seems impossible for the Tigers to find a better use of a roster spot (and about $18 million) than Tarik Skubal. So what does the calculus really point to? Sacrificing some of that uncertain but promising future to bet big on winning with the sure thing they’re holding right now.
That doesn’t seem to be this front office’s persuasion, or perhaps this ownership group’s. It is an option, though. A Tigers lineup with even a surefire All-Star at the heart of things would be a serious threat when paired with Skubal, some young hitters, a generally interesting pitching staff and a savvy manager.
If this equation must be considered as a binary, trade Skubal or keep Skubal, the math goes like this: Trading him means the Tigers choose not to go bust. They won’t have to admit failure, won’t have to tally the score; they’ll be hedging this one bet for years.
Keeping him makes 2026 a high-stakes game. They could definitely lose that bet in the next 365 days. Or they could win big.
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Tarik Skubal Trade Calculus: Factors That Should Inform the Tigers’ Huge Decision Opta Analyst.
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