Read our Ashes Third Test preview and prediction as England look to avoid going 3-0 down in the series, and therefore handing Australia the Ashes yet again.
After two chastening defeats, this is the last chance saloon for England. If they fail to win in Adelaide, then the Ashes urn will be staying in Australia.
Can Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes perform a miracle and give the Barmy Army an early Christmas present ahead of the Boxing Day Test at the MCG?
Adelaide
Defeat in Brisbane meant England’s winless run in men’s Test matches Down Under has now reached a miserable 17 matches (D2, L15).
Specifically in Adelaide, Australia have won their last three Ashes Test matches at the Adelaide Oval, with their last such defeat there coming in 2010. Back then, 227 runs from Kevin Pietersen and 148 from Alastair Cook paved the way for an innings victory for the tourists. KP’s mammoth knock remains the second highest by an away player at the venue, after Rahul Dravid’s 233 in 2003.
Second Test Recap
In some ways, the second Test went better for England than the first.
They lasted until day four rather than day two. Joe Root scored a century. There was a period in their second innings when they went almost 37 overs without losing a wicket (Ben Stokes and Will Jacks), longer than both of their entire innings in the first Test.
But that said, they were still a million miles away from threatening a win. Australia cantered across the finish line, needing just 10 overs to chase the 65 runs they needed for victory. Steve Smith was there at the end, and to summarise the daftness of the match, it was the first time he had ever struck multiple sixes in both innings of a Test match (two in each).
After day one of both Tests, England have been in strong positions. In Perth, they were on the cusp of holding a first-innings lead, and in Brisbane, they had a wicket still in hand after an unbeaten 61-run tenth-wicket partnership between Joe Root and Jofra Archer. They’ve missed the bus in the big moments after that in both matches, though.
In Brisbane, their fielding really let them down. Technically, England only dropped one more catch than Australia in the match, but of their five drops, four were rated as easy or medium chances, whereas three of the four Australia put down were hard chances you wouldn’t expect them to take.
Player Form
If one player has been the difference between the two sides in this series so far, then it is Mitchell Starc. Eighteen wickets to his name is twice as many as any other bowler. The most recent bowler to log more across the first two Tests of an Ashes series was Shane Warne (20) in the 1994-95 series in Australia, whilst his 89 runs is more than any of Ben Stokes (77), Ben Duckett (64) or Jamie Smith (52) have scored.
Expect that dominance to continue in Adelaide. Only Nathan Lyon (63) has more wickets at this Oval than Starc (55) in this century. Meanwhile, of the 14 bowlers with more than 10 wickets at the venue in this century, Starc has the best strike rate (35.1) and only Josh Hazelwood (16.8) has a better average than him (17.1). Worryingly, he also averages 28 with the bat in Adelaide.
With the bat, Steve Smith is the top scorer (652) at the venue of active players, but his average here is ‘just’ 43.5; only at the Bellerive Oval in Hobart (29) does he have a poorer record in Australia. By contrast, Marnus Labuschagne has scored almost as many runs in half the number of innings (638 in 10 innings, Smith 652 in 20), his average a formidable 70.9 here.
Better still is Travis Head’s record; he has 634 runs at 79.3 from nine innings. Only three batters with nine or more innings in Adelaide have a better average: Don Bradman (107.8), Brad Haddin (99.6) and Michael Clarke (94.3).
For England, Root will be looking to repeat his century scored in the second Test, hoping he doesn’t have to wait another 30 innings to reach triple figures Down Under. Root averages 44 in Adelaide and has passed 50 three times in six innings, with a top score of 87.
One footnote for Ollie Pope is that he played in the Big Bash League for Adelaide Strikers in the 2024-25 season. He accumulated 191 runs in nine innings that season, while in five BBL innings in Adelaide, he scored 8, 39, 1, 6 and, in his last knock there, 57.
Ashes 2025: Third Test Prediction
England are all over the place at the moment. Sometimes they appear in the fight, but then they look completely lost. Decision-making with bat, accuracy in the field, and consistency with the ball are all areas they’ve massively underperformed so far.
We don’t see them turning it around, and with Mark Wood out and Pat Cummins back we only see things getting worse, with Australia likely to seal the series in Adelaide. We think Travis Head will keep Usman Khawaja out of the top order and punish a flagging England bowling line-up to come out as the top-scorer.
Australia vs England Squads:
Australia: Pat Cummins (captain), Steve Smith, Sean Abbott, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Brendan Doggett, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Starc, Michael Neser, Jake Weatherald, Beau Webster.
England: Ben Stokes (captain), Harry Brook (vice-captain), Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Brydon Carse, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, Matthew Potts, Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue, Matthew Fisher.
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Ashes Third Test Preview: Can England Avoid Losing Ashes Series in Adelaide? Opta Analyst.
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