Are we in an Obsessive Alex Bregman Watch at this point? It’s been hard for me to get there, given that the budget likely accommodates one impact starting pitcher acquired via free agency *OR* one impact bat acquired via free agency.
But I think there is broad-based, reasonable speculation at this point that if the Cubs were to trade for a starting pitcher, their efforts to spend the unused funds on a big bat would accelerate. But since no starting pitchers have been traded anywhere, and the free agent starting pitcher market is currently quiet, it feels unreasonable to obsess over every little Bregman rumor or detail. We know the Cubs like him. That’s inarguable at this point. But we don’t know just how aggressive they’re going to be in the absence of more information about the pitching plan.
All that said, I couldn’t help myself when I saw the following quote. It made me think about Alex Bregman instantly, and it made me think about the possible Cubs-related implications – much like what happened to Michael this week with that transparently forced Mariners rumor.
Here’s the quote:
"Speaking in general terms and not specifically about the failed Alonso talks, one prominent agent noted of the Red Sox: 'They don’t believe in long-term deals.'" t.co/RBmE6JZ2Km
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) December 12, 2025Red Sox have demonstrated, like every team, they are cool with long-term deals for guys in their 20s. The agent talking to @Sean_McAdam was talking about FAs in 30s. t.co/Li1GchJOea
— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) December 12, 2025Now, that’s just one agent, but the implication is that (1) the Red Sox were not offering Pete Alonso a particularly long-term deal, and (2) similarly-aged free agents might have trouble getting a long-term offer from the Red Sox.
It doesn’t HAVE to have been an agent beefing about HIS OWN 31/32-year-old client getting short-term offers from the Red Sox, and it doesn’t HAVE to be a reference to Alex Bregman.
… but, come on. It’s hardly difficult to imagine that quote came from Scott Boras. Who represents both Alonso and Bregman. Who might be frustrated that the Red Sox were holding the line at three-ish years on two of his 31-year-old position player clients. Who both had to settle last offseason for deals with an early opt-out. Who both then hit the market again this offseason trying to get a longer-term deal.
Like, sure, it’s “not about Alonso or Bregman or anyone specific.” But it’s TOTALLY about them.
The Red Sox not only offered Bregman a contract last year, they actually signed him. Might happen again. But, even though he was only about to turn 31, the Red Sox limited it to a three-year offer at a large AAV, with an opt-out after the first year. The Qualifying Offer was a factor then and isn’t now, but Bregman is also a year older. The Red Sox went super short-term last time around, and there’s no reason to believe they’d suddenly change course this time around if they didn’t have to.
Also, I think it’s important to reiterate how much Bregman’s deal with the Red Sox was actually worth, when the massive deferrals were calculated in: three years and about $90 million. That AAV is still pretty premium, and more than Bregman could realistically hope for on a very long-term deal. But still, it’s not like the Red Sox blew him away with some huge deal. They gave him a decent AAV, and, critically, offered him an opt-out after the first year.
I think they are probably staying very short-term again, and I think it probably annoys Boras and Bregman.
Of course, the Cubs’ offer to Bregman last year was only one year longer, at a slightly lower AAV (reportedly four years and $115 million, but with no deferrals, and an opt-out after year two). I doubt the Cubs would go much higher this time, even without the Qualifying Offer attached, because Bregman is a year older and did have some injury issues this past season. For all we know, the Cubs have offered up that same deal*, and are sitting tight on the hope and expectation that the Red Sox won’t beat it this time around.
The Tigers, incidentally, are the only other known suitor and also the only other club known to have made a longer-term offer last time around (six years and $171.5 million). From their perspective, I kinda wonder if they just chop off a year and make him the same AAV offer, but over five years instead of six. Because if they offered him a clean six years and $171.5 million this time around, I think Bregman would have a hard time justifying passing, as he heads into his age-32 season.
*(Again, this is all a bit contingent on what happens with the pitching. Maybe the Cubs could squeeze, for example, both Zac Gallen and Alex Bregman into the budget, but I have my doubts that they want to add two contracts of that size this offseason.)
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