Six NHS hospitals have declared critical incidents amid surging cases of a so-called “super-flu” that has led to record-high hospitalisation rates.
The situation has seen emergency departments already struggling to cope with demand, preparing for a “long winter” ahead, with “no peak in sight” as healthcare chiefs warn that more patients could be “stuck in trolleys for hours and hours”.
It comes ahead of what has been called “the really big challenge” of resident doctors going on strike next week in the lead up to Christmas, while NHS bosses fear there could soon be as many as 8,000 beds across England occupied by flu patients.
Here’s what we know about the mutant flu strain driving the spike in cases and the latest numbers on flu-related hospitalisations, plus which hospitals and schools have been most affected so far.
What is the mutant ‘super-flu’?
The current dominant strain of so-called “super-flu” sweeping through the UK is H3N2, also known as subclade K. This is a mutation of the influenza A virus and is believed to be behind an earlier than normal outbreak this season.
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Last month, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said this new strain was driving an earlier than usual surge in cases.
The agency said activity has “risen unusually early” this year, with “increases first seen in teenagers and young adults, followed by younger children”.
Flu circulation among children normally precedes that in adults, and it is feared that low vaccination rates among both schoolchildren and NHS workers could be driving the surge in cases.
How many people have been hospitalised with the flu?
The number of people in hospital with the flu in England is currently at a record level for this time of year.
An average of 1,717 flu patients were in beds in England each day, including 69 in critical care, the most recent data showed.
This is 56 per cent higher than the figure at this point in 2024, when the total was 1,098, with 39 in critical care.
It’s also higher than the same point in 2023, when there were an average of 243 flu patients, and in 2022, when the average was 772.
New data will be published every Thursday, and last week, NHS chief executive Sir Jim Mackey told a board meeting he thinks “it’s reasonable to assume [there] will be 5,000-8,000 occupied beds around this time next week.”
People have been urged to get a flu jab as cases rise (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty)The previous high was at the peak of the previous flu season in January, when flu hospitalisations hit 5,408 on average each day.
Dr Ian Higginson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM), said last week: “Our corridors are already full of extremely ill patients with nowhere else to go, because there are no beds available to admit them.
“But I want to be clear: flu and seasonal illnesses are not the sole issue here. Things were already terrible. And winter is predictable. Flu is also predictable, and sometimes it will be a really bad year.
“There’s no point keeping on blaming external forces for deep seated problems, when we conspicuously fail to plan for these events and run our hospitals in a state of permacrisis so there is no reserve left.
He continued: “Things are about to get pretty bad. The result will be more patients stuck in trolleys for hours and hours. And we know that these long waits are associated with an increased risk of death.
“Our teams will do our best to minimise the risk, but with one hand tied behind their backs by policy failure, it won’t be easy. It’s going to be a long winter.”
Professor Julian Redhead, national medical director for urgent and emergency care at NHS England, added that despite cases being “incredibly high for this time of year”, there is “no peak in sight yet.”
Which hospitals have declared critical incidents?
Six hospitals in England have declared critical incidents, a term used when the safe delivery of patient care can no longer be guaranteed.
University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, which is responsible for four major hospitals in the region, did so on Tuesday due to “extreme pressures” caused by the surging flu cases.
An “exceptionally” high number of 269 patients with flu required hospital admission, causing “extended” wait times despite expanded capacities at “overcrowded ward and A&E departments across Good Hope, Heartlands, Solihull and Queen Elizabeth hospitals.
“If you do not have an emergency or life-threatening condition, you may be redirected to another healthcare service such as a pharmacy or NHS 111,” a statement added.
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Trailing only Birmingham’s University Hospital for flu patient numbers in last week’s official figures was Manchester University Hospital, with 85.1 beds occupied by flu patients and a further seven in critical care, followed by Barts in London with an average of 80.4 over the week.
University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust, which covers Royal Stoke University Hospital and County Hospital in Stafford, was fourth, with an average of 58.8 beds occupied with flu patients.
That NHS trust also declared a critical incident on Monday due to unprecedented demand in its A&E department.
The Royal Surrey County Hospital in Guildford has asked people to wear face masks in its A&E department, as have Salisbury District and Great Western Hospitals in Wiltshire.
It comes ahead of what NHS Providers called “the really big challenge” of resident doctors going on strike next week.
Daniel Elkeles, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said he agreed with concerns from “really, really senior doctors” in the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges that the strike going ahead could harm patients.
“It’s not too late for resident doctors and the Government to find enough common ground in their conversations to say ‘we are determined to resolve this dispute but the thing that is really, really going to damage the NHS and harm patients is having the strike next week,” he said.
“So let’s not have the strike next week and let’s carry on talking and get to a good place where resident doctors and the Government feel like there’s a good solution.”
Have any schools closed because of the flu?
Some schools have been forced to close temporarily due to high levels of illness in recent weeks.
For example, it was reported two weeks ago that Congleton High School in Cheshire had closed for two days for a deep clean following a “number of flu-like cases”.
St Martin’s School in Caerphilly also closed last week after some 250 pupils and members of staff fell ill, it was reported.
The headteacher of Ebrington Primary School in County Londonderry said last week that 170 of his pupils were off sick in one day and that a small number of children had been admitted to hospital for treatment, in what he called scenes reminiscent of “Covid times”.
Meanwhile, The i Paper has been told anecdotally of some classrooms where half the students are absent due to illness, and Wigton Moor Primary School in Leeds has even stopped singing in assemblies in a bid to halt the flu’s spread.
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A Government spokesperson said: “This will be a tough winter for our NHS and the latest figures confirm flu cases are at very high levels this year.
“School attendance is critical for children’s life chances, and while it’s clear cases of flu are going to have an impact on attendance levels, we are clear that school closures should only happen in extreme circumstances.
“We provide clear guidance to help parents know exactly when to keep children home, and to help schools both manage children’s wellbeing and keep disruption to a minimum.”
What can you do to protect yourself from the flu?
Flu spreads easily and can live on surfaces for 24 hours, so frequent hand washing can help, as can coughing or sneezing into tissues, which should be immediately thrown in the bin.
The NHS suggests rest, keeping warm, drinking plenty of fluids and taking paracetamol or ibuprofen to help with sudden fever, aches and pains. Pharmacists can advise on remedies, with other symptoms including tiredness, a dry cough, sore throat, headache, trouble sleeping, loss of appetite, feeling sick and diarrhoea.
Health leaders have also urged eligible people to come forward and get their flu jab, with UKHSA data suggesting this year’s vaccine is providing good protection against the current strain.
Flu jabs are available to anyone 65 and over, or those under 65 deemed to be at clinical risk.
Care home residents, carers, pregnant women, close contacts of people who are immunosuppressed, frontline health workers and children can also get the vaccine.
Who can get a free NHS flu jab?
The free NHS flu jab is available to people who:
are aged 65 and over are pregnant live in a care home live with someone with a weakened immune system are the main carer for an older or disabled person receive a carer’s allowanceor those who have certain long-term health conditions, including:
breathing conditions like asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or cystic fibrosis heart conditions, such as coronary heart disease or heart failure chronic kidney disease liver disease, such as cirrhosis or hepatitis some conditions that affect brain or nerves, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis or cerebral palsy diabetes or Addison’s disease a weakened immune system due to a condition such as HIV or AIDS, or due to a treatment such as chemotherapy or steroid medicine problems with your spleen, such as sickle cell disease, or if you’ve had your spleen removed a learning disability being very overweight with a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or aboveThere have, meanwhile, been suggestions of “getting back into the habit” of mask wearing for those who are experiencing symptoms like coughing and sneezing but are well enough to go into work.
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Elkeles warned that the country is seeing a “very nasty strain of flu” in “perfect flu-spreading conditions” given the wet and relatively mild weather, plus the fact that children are still at school.
He told The i Paper that a “tidal wave of flu” hitting the NHS hard and earlier than usual has put the health service in “uncharted, unprecedented territory.
“And we face a ‘double-whammy’, a perfect storm of another damaging five-day resident doctors’ strike on top of snowballing flu.”
It comes similar calls by agencies, including UKHSA, which said last week that “masks continue to be a useful tool in limiting the spread of respiratory viruses in some situations”.
The health service stresses that people should call NHS 111 or seek an urgent GP appointment if they are over 65, pregnant, worried about their child’s symptoms, have long-term medical conditions, have a weakened immune system or if symptoms do not improve after seven days.
A No 10 spokesman added: “The best defence against flu is the vaccine, which is why we’re ramping up our vaccination efforts this winter with almost 17 million flu jabs already delivered, which is 350,000 more than this time last year.”
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