Over at Marquee, Bruce Levine runs down the many rumors and storylines for the Chicago Cubs this week at the Winter Meetings. It’s a very comprehensive read, and worth checking out.
One thing jumped out at me, not necessarily for the strength of the rumor, but instead for the identity of the player. Because it’s not a guy we’ve really heard attached to the Cubs:
“While [Tatsuya] Imai is the jewel of this year’s foreign player class, Japanese third baseman Munetaka Murakami is a power hitter whom the Cubs could consider if Bregman talks stall.
The slugging left-handed hitter has 30-plus-homer power, but some clubs are concerned about the 25-year-old’s drop in overall extra-base hits, from a high of 78 in 2022 to just 34 last season. Defense isn’t Murkami’s strength, nor does he possess top-flight speed. Left-handed power hitters must adjust at Wrigley Field and use the gap-to-gap power alleys to succeed ….
The Cubs’ international scouts have taken a deep dive into all three [of Imai, Murakami, and Kazuma Okamoto].”
The Cubs could consider Munetaka Murakami, eh? Interesting.
The fit here is a little tougher than, for example, Kazuma Okamoto, whom others see as a more plausible big league third baseman, and who may not cost nearly as much. Moreover, although Murakami comes with more upside thanks to his top-of-the-scale power, he comes with such significant swing-and-miss risk that he may never hit at all in MLB.
So why would the Cubs even be interested? Well, if you zoom out, it’s not hard to see. You’re talking about a 25-year-old Japanese superstar. Maybe he still has development ahead of him that can translate in MLB. And maybe the gargantuan power carries over. And maybe he can hack third base well enough to stick there for a while, and we know from Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suarez rumors that the Cubs are considering an upgrade there offensively. Heck, even if Murakami can’t ultimately handle third base, maybe he winds up hitting so well for so long that you don’t care if he’s just a bat.
The value of having a guy like Murakami could also be more than his production, as he has been one of the biggest names in Japan for years now. The Cubs are continuing to build out something of a talent pipeline, and if they believe they have an organizational skill at incorporating and maximizing Japanese players, then they should be looking at a guy like Murakami, even if the fit is a little tricky.
All that said, I think it’s important to note that the Munetaka Murakami mention came in the context of Levine running down virtually every single player and path for the Cubs this offseason. Yes, he reported the interest, but it was within a much broader context. Framing it that way, would it surprise you to learn that the Cubs have scouted, studied, and analyzed Murakami? Of course not. They’re going to do that with any player coming over from Japan at this point. That isn’t the same thing as an aggressive pursuit, about which we’ve not yet heard anything.
Because he was posted earlier than the other top Japanese players, Murakami’s deadline to sign is coming first, on December 22. That could mean we see some real movement this week at the Winter Meetings, with the more serious suitors shaking loose.
From our previous discussion on Murakami:
Talk about a guy who is tough to project in MLB. On the one hand, Munetaka Murakami will play next season at age 26, and he already has multiple monster seasons in the NPB. On the other hand, his best seasons came a few years ago. On the one hand, he hit .286/.392/.659 with 24 homers in just 69 games this year. On the other hand, he played only 69 games this year because of various injury issues. On the one hand, he can play both corner infield spots. On the other hand, it’s not known just how well he’d play those positions in MLB or as he ages.
Then there are the big questions, mostly tied to Murakami’s fluctuating power and his sizable strikeout rate, which has at times approached 30% (a whopping figure for the NPB). Would MLB pitchers simply be too much for him to actually use his power in-game? If the strikeout rate climbed further and the power dipped, would he even be a plus bat in MLB? Or could an MLB org help him adjust to the subtle differences between the leagues? Might he even take a further step forward, given his relative youth?
Here’s how The Athletic recently discussed the whiff-related concerns: “His profile is one of big upside but also frightening red flags. No concern looms larger than Murakami’s propensity for swing-and-miss. NPB is a lower strikeout environment than MLB, yet Murakami’s strikeout rates have hovered close to 30 percent for each of the past three years. Some evaluators see holes in his elongated swing that could be further exploited by top-end velocity or breaking stuff. Per FanGraphs, Murakami’s contact rate against fastballs 93 mph or greater is only 63 percent since the 2022 season. In 2025, his contact rate against secondary pitches was only 51 percent.”
Those numbers go beyond yikes. They would border on unplayable in MLB.
But, again, the guy is just 25, has such prodigious natural talent, and very well could improve/adjust in a different environment. Some team is going to take a big risk on the massive upside. I tend to think the Cubs would be more likely to go for a shorter-term, somewhat-safer play in Kazuma Okamoto if they try for a Japanese third baseman, but we’ll still keep an eye on this situation. Lots of broader implications for the market, obviously.
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