Leeds United claimed a big win over Chelsea on Wednesday, and now welcome the out-of-form champions to Elland Road. We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Leeds vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Leeds vs Liverpool: The Key Stats
Leeds United stunned Chelsea last time out, but they are given just a 22.1% chance of beating Liverpool, who are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites (55.8%). Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League away games against Leeds (W4 D2), winning 6-1 on their last visit to Elland Road in April 2023. Leeds have won just one of their last 16 Premier League games against reigning champions (D4 L11).Daniel Farke would certainly have been full of relief when his Leeds United side stunned Chelsea 3-1 at Elland Road on Wednesday.
It saw them move out of the Premier League relegation zone and end a four-match losing run in the competition to ease some of the pressure that had been building on the Leeds boss.
They showed signs of their determination to avoid the drop in a late 3-2 defeat at Manchester City last weekend, and that intensity was on display to an even greater extent against Chelsea.
Leeds produced 2.79 expected goals (xG) in the win, the second-highest total by a team against the Blues in the Premier League since Enzo Maresca took charge, behind only Tottenham’s 2.9 in December 2024. Albeit, it should be noted that Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s goal, which made it 3-1, did account for 0.99 of that xG total, a tap in from a yard out.
But the fixture list does not ease up for Farke’s team, with Arne Slot’s Liverpool visiting Elland Road on Saturday.
The Reds have been far from their best this season, currently sitting eighth in the Premier League table after a 1-1 draw with Sunderland, but they will be determined to get back to the form that helped them win the title last season.
And Leeds typically struggle against teams that lifted the trophy in the season prior.
They have won just one of their last 16 Premier League games against reigning champions (D4 L11), winning 3-2 at Arsenal in May 2003. At home, they are winless in eight (D2 L6) such matches, since a 1-0 victory against the Gunners in May 1999.
Now could be as good a time as ever for Leeds to snap that record, though, with Liverpool struggling on their recent travels. The Reds have lost seven of their last 11 Premier League away games (W4), with only Fulham and Wolves (8 each) losing more since the start of April.
To put that into context, their previous seven away defeats had come over a 45-game spell between January 2023 and February 2025.
Liverpool did beat West Ham 2-0 in their last road outing, but then had to fight back to earn a 1-1 draw against Sunderland at Anfield in midweek, with Slot’s team turning in another below-par display.
Another good omen for Leeds could be that they last won consecutive matches in the top-flight in October-November 2022, one of which was against Liverpool.
Calvert-Lewin could be the man to get the job done for Leeds this time around. Following goals against Man City and Chelsea, the former Everton man is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time since August 2021.
He also scored on his last appearance against Liverpool, netting the second in Everton’s 2-0 win against their Merseyside rivals in April 2024.
On the other side, though, Mohamed Salah will be looking to prove his worth against favoured opposition. The Egyptian has scored nine goals in just six Premier League games against Leeds, with only Alan Shearer (20) and Thierry Henry (10) netting more often against them.
The 33-year-old was benched for Liverpool’s last two games, though he did come on at half-time against Sunderland and added some impetus to the Reds’ attack. With the Africa Cup of Nations approaching, Slot only has three more games in which to utilise Salah before he heads off on December 15.
Salah, for all his struggles this season, is still Liverpool’s most creative player. He has crafted 28 goalscoring chances for his teammates this term. No team has had more different players create 20+ chances than Liverpool in the Premier League this season (four, level with Chelsea) – with Salah ahead of Cody Gakpo (25), Dominik Szoboszlai (24) and Florian Wirtz (20).
Wirtz thought he had broken his Liverpool duck on Wednesday, only for his strike against Sunderland to go down as a Nordi Mukiele own goal. But the German should take confidence from his excellent jinking run that preceded his deflected shot off Mukiele to rescue a point, with Liverpool avoiding defeat for the first time this season after conceding the opening goal. It was also their first league draw this season.
The Reds have lost six of their seven games when conceding first this term (D1), while they have won all seven Premier League games in which they have scored first. So the first goal could well prove crucial in this one.
And with Jaka Bijol scoring Leeds’ opener against Chelsea after just five minutes and 24 seconds, Liverpool will have to be wary of an early onslaught at what is sure to be a boisterous Elland Road on Saturday evening.
Leeds also scored after eight minutes and three minutes in their two previous home games, against Aston Villa and West Ham, respectively.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have conceded the opening goal in seven of their last nine Premier League games (W2 D1 L6), as many times as in their prior 26 matches in the competition (W17 D6 L3).
Leeds vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Leeds have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L8), beating them 2-1 at Anfield in October 2022.
However, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six Premier League away games against Leeds (W4 D2), winning 6-1 on their most recent visit to Elland Road in April 2023.
The Reds’ last two league victories against Leeds have been by 6-0 and 6-1 scorelines. Only Arsenal have scored six or more goals against an opponent in three different Premier League games before (versus Blackburn Rovers).
Leeds vs Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool may be operating way below their best this season, but the Opta supercomputer still fancies them for this one, coming out on top in 55.8% of our model’s 10,000 data-led sims.
Leeds are handed just a 22.1% win probability, while the chance of a draw is 22.0%.
Leeds vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Leeds United: Lucas Perri, Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, Ilia Gruev, Brenden Aaronson, Noah Okafor, Lukas Nmecha.
Head coach: Daniel Farke
Liverpool: Alisson, Dominik Szoboszlai, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Florian Wirtz, Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitiké.
Head coach: Arne Slot
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Leeds vs Liverpool Prediction: Can Daniel Farke’s Men Claim Another Big Scalp at Elland Road? Opta Analyst.
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