Ahead of Friday’s draw for the group stage at the FIFA World Cup 2026 finals, we assess the potential opponents for each of these nations.
The draw for the group stage of next summer’s FIFA World Cup finals takes place on Friday, with England, Scotland, and every other one of the 42 already-qualified nations set to find out their fate.
Six of the 48 spots are still up for grabs, with four UEFA play-off winners to be added to the pile and two more through the inter-confederation play-offs, so Friday’s draw won’t quite be complete.
However, there is still plenty that we do know, and plenty to be decided. With Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland all into the play-offs, there is a great deal of note to be decided.
So, ahead of Friday, we’ve outlined the best and worst possible draws for each of the home nations and Ireland using the FIFA world ranking of each team.
It’s worth saying that rankings aren’t necessarily indicative of quality, and nothing should be taken for granted when playing a low-ranked side. For example, Saudi Arabia were ranked 51st by FIFA heading into Qatar 2022, and beat soon-to-be world champions Argentina, then ranked third in the world, in their opening match. Morocco, meanwhile, were 22nd in the world heading into that tournament, and made it to the semi-finals.
But there’s no doubt that everyone will have an idea of what a favourable opponent looks like.
But before we get onto everyone’s possible opponents…
How Will the Draw Work?
In short, 48 teams will be sorted into 12 groups of four teams. This is 16 teams more than the tournament usually includes, so that makes this the biggest World Cup draw there’s ever been.
The 48 teams have been evenly split into four pots based on their FIFA world ranking (aside from the three hosts: USA, Mexico and Canada, who will all go into Pot 1). That is, the three hosts and the next nine best-ranked teams in the world will be in Pot 1; the next 12 teams according to the FIFA rankings will go into Pot 2, and so on.
The six play-off winners will go into Pot 4, which raises the possibility of Italy, currently ranked 12th in the world but heading for the play-offs, being in Pot 4 alongside the likes of Curaçao, Cape Verde and Haiti.
Another rule that needs mentioning is that no two teams from the same federation can be in the same group, with the exception of UEFA because, well, there are too many of them to avoid any clashes. Four groups will contain two European teams. We’ll bear all that in mind in our working.
We will work through the pots in the same order the real draw does so, for example, if two European teams are already in a group when we move on to Pot 3, no more UEFA-based teams will be added.
Best-Case Scenarios
England, ranked fourth in the world, will be in Pot 1, and so have the advantage of knowing they will avoid the very best teams in the world in the group stage.
The lowest-ranked team in Pot 2 is Australia (26th in the world) and in Pot 3 it’s South Africa (61). Of the already-qualified teams from Pot 4, New Zealand (84) are lowest, completing a group that would traditionally look more at home in the Rugby or Cricket World Cup. Australia and NZ can go into the same group because Australia are a member of the Asian Football Confederation.
Allowing for the possibility of any of the teams in the play-offs making it to the finals, minnows New Caledonia (149) would be the lowest-ranked team.
Dream Draw for England
England Australia South Africa New ZealandScotland, in Pot 2, will be hoping to draw Canada (27) from Pot 1, South Africa from Pot 3, and New Zealand from Pot 4 or (as was the case for England,) New Caledonia if we’re also including potential qualifiers through the play-offs.
Dream Draw for Scotland
Canada Scotland South Africa New ZealandNorthern Ireland, Republic of Ireland and Wales would almost certainly be delighted just to be in the draw, and if they make it through the play-offs there will be no complaints over the opponents they face.
That said, if they do make it, there would still be a best-case scenario from the draw. As each of them would go into Pot 4, the dream draw would be the same for all three teams going just off the FIFA rankings. Note: only one of Wales and Northern Ireland can qualify, as they have been drawn in the same play-off path.
Dream Draw for Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland or Wales
Canada Australia South Africa Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland/WalesWorst-Case Scenarios
The expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams has a few major consequences, one of which is a greater number of lower-quality sides being in the tournament and, with that, less chance of being drawn into a group of death.
The highest-ranked Pot-4 team who has already qualified, for example, is Jordan, who are making their debut at the World Cup and are currently ranked 66th in the world.
What’s more, 32 of the 48 teams in the group stage go through to the first knockout round, with eight of the 12 third-placed teams qualifying, so teams can do pretty badly in the group stage and still make it through.
It was the same format at Euro 2016 that allowed Portugal to make it out of their group without winning a single game, and they went on to win the whole thing.
In that sense, then, the draw for this summer’s World Cup is rather less perilous than it has been for previous editions of the tournament.
Nonetheless, there is still the chance of a tricky draw. And it could get even worse if some of the stronger teams get through the play-offs.
Even for England in Pot 1, there are a few teams in Pots 2 and 3 who they will be hoping to avoid. The highest-ranked team in each of those pots are both teams who fit into that category.
In Pot 2, Croatia, ranked 10th in the world and a thorn in England’s side most recently in the 2018 World Cup semi-final but also in qualifying for Euro 2008, might not be quite as strong as they were only a few years ago, but England would surely prefer not to face them. Morocco (11), Colombia (13) and Uruguay (16) are all also strong potential opponents in Pot 2.
In Pot 3, Norway are the team to avoid, after they stormed through qualifying with eight wins from eight games, scoring 37 goals.
However, if England have already been drawn against Croatia, they won’t be able to face a second European team, so they would have to face non-UEFA teams in both Pot 3 and Pot 4. Panama are next in the rankings in Pot 3, ranked 30th in the world, and they come into this off the back of making the quarter-finals at recent Copa América and Gold Cup tournaments.
Pot 4’s best team as things stand is Jordan, but that is certain to change with six more teams to qualify. The best of the potential play-off winners is Italy, who are currently ranked 12th in the world and being drawn against them will be the nightmare scenario for any team given their international-tournament heritage, should they qualify.
Again, though, England would avoid them with two European teams already in the group. DR Congo, at 56th in the world, are the highest-ranked team going into the play-offs from outside of UEFA.
Based on FIFA rankings and the rules over confederations, this is the worst-case scenario for England.
Nightmare Draw for England
England Croatia Panama JordanHowever, it would arguably be worse to face Morocco from Pot 2 as they are only one place behind Croatia in the rankings, and then face Norway from Pot 3, giving this:
Alternative Nightmare Draw for England
England Morocco Norway JordanNeither will likely fill England Thomas Tuchel with too much fear, though. England went through the whole group stage without conceding a single goal.
Scotland face the possibility of being drawn with one of the very best teams in the world. Euro 2024 winners Spain are currently ranked number one in the world, with reigning world champions Argentina second. As was the case with England, being drawn with another European team would affect how the rest of the draw goes, so with that in mind here are two possible nightmare scenarios for the Scots.
Nightmare Draw 1 for Scotland
Spain Morocco Scotland JordanNightmare Draw 2 for Scotland
Argentina Croatia Scotland JordanAnd here are a couple of possible worst-case scenarios for any of the potential qualifiers through the play-offs.
Nightmare Draw for Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland or Wales
Spain Morocco Panama Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland/Walesor…
Argentina Japan Norway Northern Ireland/Republic of Ireland/WalesEnjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
World Cup 2026 Draw: Dream and Nightmare Scenarios for England, Scotland, Republic of Ireland, Wales and Northern Ireland Opta Analyst.
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