With four teams separated by just a point at the top of Serie A, it looks set to be another exhilarating title race in Italy this season.
Last season, Napoli pipped Inter to the Serie A crown by a single point in one of the best title races in Europe.
The good news for fans of drama is that things are shaping up nicely for another exciting battle for the Scudetto in 2025-26.
It is open to debate whether there even is such a thing as a title race after only 13 games, just a smidge past a third of the way through a league campaign, but with 25 matchdays remaining, things are very tight at the top in Italy once more.
Milan lead the way on goal difference from Napoli, with Inter and Roma just one point further behind them.
In fact, if Bologna had beaten Cremonese at home on Monday, it would have been five teams separated by just a single point. However, Jamie Vardy scored a brace in a 3-1 win for the visitors, scuppering that possibility while also proving how competitive Italy’s top flight currently is. Incidentally, that made Vardy only the second player to score three goals in a Serie A season after turning 38 with a newly promoted side, after Gianfranco Zola for Cagliari in 2004-05 (nine).
Despite that, Bologna, Como and Juventus sit just a few points behind, within three points of including themselves in the race.
This is the second consecutive season that at least four teams have been separated by just a point at the top of the table after 13 games, which had never happened in the previous 30 seasons.
After 13 games last season, the top five were all separated by a point, including Fiorentina, who now sit in the relegation zone, having not won any league games in 2025-26.
By comparison, Arsenal have a five-point lead in the Premier League after 13 games, while Bayern Munich hold an eight-point advantage in the Bundesliga after 12 matches. Things look more competitive in Spain, where three points separate the top four, and in France where Lens lead PSG by a point, with Marseille a further point back.
One of the biggest benefits of things being so close at the top of the table in Italy is that it feels as though there are huge matches on a weekly basis. On MD12, we were treated to a tight Derby della Madonnina, with Milan beating Inter 1-0 at San Siro, before Napoli edged out Roma by the same score in the Italian capital on MD13.
Coincidentally, Napoli also beat Roma 1-0 on MD13 last season, giving them a one-point advantage over four teams below them at that stage.
Next weekend, Inter host fifth-place Como – whose impressive rise we recently covered – while defending champions Napoli play seventh-place Juventus. The Old Lady could really put the cat among the pigeons if they can win in Naples, but it has been since their stranglehold on Serie A ended five years ago that the question of who will win the Scudetto has been genuinely fascinating and open.
Juventus won nine titles in a row between 2011 and 2020, but since then no team have successfully defended their crown, with Inter (2), Napoli (2) and Milan all tasting glory in that time.
Is there a secret to success in Italy, though?
It’s interesting to look at the various team styles this season in Serie A. As you can see below, the top four in the title race are all in the bottom right quadrant, meaning they are all making higher-than-average passes per sequence, matched with lower-than-average attacking speed the pitch. In fact, Inter (4.44), Milan (4.38) and Napoli (4.28) are the top three for average passes per sequence, which isn’t all that surprising given it suggests they have more of the ball than others.
That seems to pay off in Italy. Of the 10 teams with above average passes per sequence, only Atalanta are in the bottom half of the league (12th), and according to Opta’s expected points, La Dea should be in seventh place.
Coupled with that, the eight teams in the top left quadrant – the most direct – are the teams that currently make up the bottom eight in Serie A. Hellas Verona are the most direct team in Serie A, and sit bottom of the table, though are unlucky to do so according to their expected points.
For those wondering what expected points are, it is an Opta model that simulates the number of goals scored in each match using the expected goals (xG) value of every shot. It then simulates the outcome (win/draw/loss) 10,000 times per match. Each team’s expected points are calculated based on how often they win, draw, or lose across those simulations.
It’s not an exact science as it doesn’t include factors such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots, but it’s a decent barometer at least.
According to those calculations, Inter should be top, with Juventus in second. The expected points model suggests that each of Milan, Napoli and especially Roma are somewhat overachieving after 13 games. Como and Bologna have done well, though both should be one place higher.
Genoa are fighting relegation when they should be in the top half, but that’s not the most remarkable revelation from our expected points calculations, which suggests that not only should Hellas Verona not be bottom, but they should be in the top half (10th). Paulo Zanetti’s men have just six points, but should have 18.6 according to the model. In fact, they should have more points than both Lazio and Udinese, rather than 12 points fewer.
Looking back at the title race, there are reasons to think it could get even more competitive, especially if Juve can start to live up to their expected points. With Luciano Spalletti now at the helm just three seasons after guiding Napoli to the title, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them muscle in on things over the next few weeks and months, especially if he can win at his former employer on Sunday.
That competitiveness throughout Serie A has been on show all season. There have been more draws in Italy’s top flight than any of Europe’s other top five leagues this season (42), while there have been significantly more goalless draws in Serie A (17), at least 10 more than any other top-five league.
We know what you want to know next, though. What does the Opta supercomputer think will happen?
Well, Inter are the favourites to win the Scudetto. Christian Chivu’s men do so in 38.9% of the most recent 10,000 season simulations. The Nerazzurri’s losses to Napoli and Milan saw their percentage dip recently, though, with it being over 50% not so long ago.
There is barely a piece of paper to separate Napoli and Milan, with the champions given a 23.0% likelihood of retaining their title, slightly ahead of the Rossoneri’s 22.8%.
Following their home defeat to Napoli at the weekend, Roma are less fancied at 9.6%, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, it won’t take much to change all that.
There is still a long way to go and anything could happen. We saw teams drop away last season until it was just Napoli and Inter in the closing weeks, but for now, let’s just enjoy the uncertainty in Serie A, where it pays to be patient.
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Are We About to Have the Best Serie A Title Race Ever? Opta Analyst.
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