Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
Timothy Noah: Thanks for having me, Greg.
President Donald Trump (voiceover): We’re also making incredible strides to make America affordable again. That’s a new word that they’re using. Affordability, they talk. They had the worst inflation in history. They had the highest prices in history. The country was going to hell. The only thing that we’re going up in is our stock market, okay? The only price that we really have. I mean, we’re bringing prices down. But they came up with a new word, affordability. And they look at the... We were all about affordability and everyone assumes that that meant that no, their prices were high.
Noah: Yes. I mean, this is a guy slapping tariffs on everything, and mostly imposing them on countries, not on goods. And of course that’s going to drive up the price of everything. He is now attempting to reverse the impact on groceries by removing tariffs on a few items like bananas and coffee, which—it was insane ever to put tariffs on bananas and coffee, because the United States does not have a domestic coffee industry or a domestic banana industry. We cannot grow coffee beans or bananas in the United States. So we’re never going to have parity with other countries on that.
Sargent: The funny thing about Trump is that he’s incapable of admitting that something might be going the wrong direction under his presidency. So it makes him unusually badly equipped to handle a political crisis like this, doesn’t it?
Sargent: Well, we have two new polls, and they’re really bad. A new Marist poll finds Trump’s overall approval rating at 39% with 56% disapproving. That’s bad. A new Marquette poll finds Trump’s overall approval slightly higher at 43%. But listen to this: Marquette has his approval on the economy at 36% to 64%, his approval on tariffs at 37% to 63%, and his approval on inflation and cost of living at 28% to 72% disapproving. That’s absolutely abysmal, and we need to remember that cost of living and inflation—those are the absolutely central concerns of voters right now.
Noah: Well, this is what got Trump elected. Trump would not be president if it weren’t for people being upset about the economy in November 2024. And they are still upset about the economy, arguably more upset about the economy. Look, inflation is going to continue with these tariffs. The only thing likely to bring prices down is a recession, which we could be on the verge of. So that would be a good news, bad news situation. The good news would be that, yes, prices would finally come down or at least stop rising. And the bad news would be we are in a recession.
Noah: Absolutely. And the funny thing is presidents don’t usually have a lot of impact on inflation. It’s usually mostly up to the Fed Chairman, who Trump, of course, reviles and blames for what inflation there is. But Trump is an exception among presidents because of his tariff policy. So you can draw a direct line between Trump’s economic policy and rising prices.
President Trump (voiceover): I’d love to fire his ass. He should be fine. Guy’s grossly incompetent. You gotta work on him, The only thing Scott’s blowing it on is the Fed. Because the Fed, the rates are too high, Scott. And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m gonna fire your ass, okay?
Noah: It reminds me of 20-odd years ago when—remember when Trump tried to actually patent the expression you’re fired, which he used to say on his TV show? Right. He’s still on TV. He’s still back in that mental universe, I think.
This is completely ridiculous. Try and get a mental picture of this. New World screwworm—every once in a blue moon, a human gets it. I think we had the first case where a human got it last August; it was the first case observed in 50 years. This is a disease that spreads from cattle to cattle. What he seems to be suggesting is that migrants are sneaking across the Rio Grande with cattle, where they’re sure not to get noticed, right? It’s absurd.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins (voiceover): In the larger context, almost everything else is coming down. Dairy, eggs, cheese, turkey for Thanksgiving next year. I think the basket is about 17 percent lower this year than it was last year.
Noah: No, broadly speaking, I think the actual turkeys themselves may have come down a little bit, but I think the rest of it is wrong. Milk prices certainly are up.
Noah: And groceries across the board are up. Look, you want to be careful about what you wish for when you’re talking about prices. Nobody really wants prices to come down across the board. When that happens, you’re in a depression. What people really want is for prices to rise more slowly and for certain commodities, certain commodities that shoot up and down like oil, obviously, to come down. yeah, they are denying reality. They think people are stupid and will believe what they say and will not check. And the polls suggest that that strategy is not working.
Noah: I think that he just he has never been able to handle adverse news. He makes a point. He has said that you You never say you’re sorry. You never admit fault. And he doesn’t have a playbook for dealing with bad developments. He didn’t during COVID and he doesn’t now. Remember, during COVID he spent half the time pretending that it wasn’t happening.
Noah: He can’t do that and on top of that people are afraid of giving him bad news. mean which is the my mentor Charlie Peters the founding editor of the Washington Monthly always said this was the central problem in government is that people at the agencies live in abject terror of passing on bad news, and it has to be overcome because if the people at the top don’t get the bad news, they lose their sense of reality and they can’t govern properly. I think Charlie would be absolutely astonished at the degree to which this is happening today in Washington.
Noah: Yeah. I mean, if you’re a prosecutor and you’re to prosecute somebody and you say we don’t have a case, you get fired. We’ve seen that. So instead we see him pursuing really sort of dubious prosecutions of his enemies. And they’re not going to go anywhere. They’re going to get thrown out.
Noah: That’s right. And there are two things about that. One is he has has gotten further with that strategy than I ever would have imagined in my wildest dreams. But at the same time, it doesn’t work. He doesn’t know how to gauge the probability of success. He’s not interested in that. So, for example, on tariffs, the betting now is heavy that he’s going to lose his court case on tariffs and he’s going to have to replace hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue. He just didn’t sort of take into account the possibility of losing.
Noah: Which is not true.
Noah: We’re on track to have the worst November in the stock market since 2008, which was two months after the crash in 2008. And that’s not good. We’ve seen a lot of volatility, but the direction in November has mostly been down.
A lot of people are observing that it’s a tiny handful of stocks that’s driving the entire stock market—a handful of tech stocks, of which the biggest is Nvidia, which is the wildly successful AI chip manufacturer. And that’s a perilous situation, to be that dependent on these individual stocks.
So I think a recession is very likely in the next two or three months.
Noah: It’s going to get blacker for him. He’s going to deny it’s happening, which is going to make it worse. I think we’re looking at a really grim downward spiral for Trump. I only hope that this economic downturn, which is likely, is a mild one.
Noah: Thank you, Greg.
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