Rumours are swirling in Westminster that Sir Keir Starmer could soon face a leadership challenge – potentially from his own front bench.
After reports in The i Paper suggested Labour MPs were quietly discussing “what happens next” if the Budget this month goes badly, there have been claims that Health Secretary Wes Streeting is plotting against the Prime Minister.
Streeting dismissed the claims as “daft” and told LBC that “the Prime Minister is not fighting for his job this morning.”
Even so, the story could be exposing a growing mood of frustration in Labour ranks.
In recent weeks, Labour insiders say the conversations have changed tone – from gossip about whether a challenge might ever happen to practical discussions about how one would actually work.
Here’s how that process could play out, and who could replace Starmer.
Why are people calling for Starmer to go?
The pressure on Sir Keir Starmer stems from three main issues: the polls, the party, and the person.
Labour has seen its polling fall dramatically since the election. A recent YouGov survey put Reform UK on 26 per cent, while Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck on 19 and 18 per cent respectively.
Starmer’s own popularity has also fallen to its lowest level since the election. A second YouGov poll reported that only 22 per cent of voters view him favourably, while 69 per cent see him negatively – a net rating of minus 47.
The coming Budget has sharpened these frustrations. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to raise income tax, breaking a key manifesto promise made a year ago. Some MPs fear this will deepen the sense that Labour is drifting and out of touch, while others warn that Starmer’s handling of the Budget could determine whether he keeps his job.
A backbencher told The i Paper that the party was already “feral”, frustrated by “the botched reshuffle”, “the poll ratings” and “having to break the manifesto commitment to raise income tax in the Budget”.
At the same time, many of Labour’s newer MPs worry about losing their seats and are unhappy with what they see as weak communication from No 10.
One Cabinet minister told The i Paper there was “certainly a problem in the PLP” (Parliamentary Labour Party), describing the new intake as “not particularly loyal to anything” and “looking at the polls and thinking, ‘I’ll only be here for one term.’”
Starmer’s allies have said these complaints are overblown. They argue he inherited a divided party, restored its credibility, and remains the serious, competent leader voters chose just a year ago.
As one senior MP put it: “We knew we weren’t electing a Blair, a Johnson, an Obama, or a Clinton – you were electing someone who was shy, more reserved, more earnest.”
Starmer is facing growing pressure from inside his own party ahead of Rachel Reeves’s Budget at the end of November (Photo: Jack Hill/WPA Pool/Getty)How would a leadership contest work?
If MPs did decide to move against Starmer, the process would not be quick or straightforward.
Labour’s rulebook makes it much harder to remove a leader than it is in the Conservative Party, which can trigger a leadership contest through the submission of no-confidence letters.
The first option is for Starmer to step down voluntarily, either under pressure from Cabinet colleagues or after an election defeat, which would make the role of leader vacant.
MPs who wanted to stand would then have to collect nominations from at least 80 Labour MPs – roughly one in five of the parliamentary party.
Once they have that, they must also show wider support in the party. They can do this by either securing backing from five per cent of constituency Labour parties (around 32) or by gaining the endorsement of three affiliated groups, such as trade unions, with at least two of them representing five per cent of affiliated members.
If more than one candidate qualifies, the election goes to the party’s members, trade unionists and registered supporters.
They all vote using a ranking system – putting candidates in order of preference – until one person receives more than 50 per cent of the votes.
The second option is for MPs to try to trigger a challenge while the leader is still in post.
To do that, a rival MP would again need 80 nominations to stand against Starmer. He would automatically appear on the ballot as the incumbent.
That is what happened in 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn’s MPs tried to remove him but failed. Corbyn refused to resign, stayed on the ballot, and went on to win easily with 62 per cent of the membership vote.
This is why most Labour insiders say that unseating a sitting leader without their consent would be very difficult.
As one senior figure told The i Paper: “People are definitely manoeuvring, but they underestimate how hard it is to organise a challenge.”
Who could replace Starmer?
Rumours are flying about who could replace Starmer as leader if he were challenged. Clockwise from left, Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Bridget Phillipson, Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner and Yvette Cooper (Images: Getty)If a vacancy were to open up, several Labour figures could be in the running – some in the Cabinet, others outside Parliament altogether.
Wes Streeting
The 42-year-old Health Secretary is seen as one of the most likely successors to Starmer. A key figure on Labour’s modernising right, he has made NHS reform a central priority and many believe he has positioned himself as a future leader-in-waiting. His biggest challenge is his narrow 528-vote majority in Ilford North and the fact that he has clashed with several trade unions over his plans for the NHS.
Shabana Mahmood
The Home Secretary has risen quickly through the ranks and is now one of the most senior women in Cabinet. A barrister by background, she has built a reputation for competence and authority at the Home Office. Her main obstacle is that her firm stance on policing and migration may alienate Labour’s left and younger activists if she ever sought the leadership.
Bridget Phillipson
The Education Secretary has become one of the Government’s most consistent performers, credited with pushing through childcare and school funding reforms. She did, however, recently lose the Labour deputy leadership race to Lucy Powell, suggesting she may struggle to garner support among members.
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Yvette Cooper
The Foreign Secretary is one of Labour’s most experienced politicians, having first entered Parliament in 1997 and served in senior roles under Gordon Brown. She previously ran for the party leadership in 2015 and has remained a central figure on the front bench ever since. Her long record in government and opposition could be both an asset and a drawback: she offers stability and experience, but may struggle to present herself as a fresh start for Labour.
Angela Rayner
The former deputy prime minister remains one of Labour’s most recognisable figures. Her life story, from care worker to senior Cabinet minister, still resonates strongly with activists and the unions. But her recent resignation over unpaid stamp duty has weakened her political standing and could hinder a leadership comeback.
Andy Burnham
The Mayor of Greater Manchester is the most prominent Labour figure outside Parliament and consistently outpolls Starmer in popularity surveys. He has twice run for the leadership and has not hidden his long-term ambition to become prime minister. His main challenge is procedural: under Labour rules, only sitting MPs can stand, meaning he would first need to win a Westminster seat before launching any bid.
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