For our weekly column of knee-jerk reactions, here are five conclusions we’ve come to based on the latest weekend of action in the Premier League.
At Opta Analyst, we usually prefer to reserve judgement, take our time over things and delve deep into the data before making sweeping statements.
But we also enjoy this weekly column where we look back at the weekend’s Premier League action and come to some conclusions that are probably just a little bit hasty. You know, it just feels like blowing off some steam.
So, without further ado, here are five knee-jerk reactions to the latest round of Premier League fixtures.
Liverpool Are Out of the Title Race
Curtains.
Liverpool’s Premier League title defence is surely over after Sunday’s 3-0 defeat at Manchester City, the Reds’ fifth loss in their last six Premier League games.
Their situation could have been worse, granted, as they’d have been 10 points adrift of leaders Arsenal if the Gunners had beaten Sunderland on Saturday. Still, an eight-point deficit to the top of the table by the November international break is probably enough to say Liverpool’s title defence is in tatters.
Their haul of 18 points may not seem disastrous, and it’s fair to point out that there’s plenty of time left to turn things around.
But only three Premier League teams have earned fewer than 18 points from their first 11 matches of the season after being crowned champions the previous campaign.
Chelsea took just 11 points from as many games in 2015-16; Leicester City had 12 at this stage of 2016-17; Blackburn Rovers managed 14 points in 1995-96; and Manchester United had 18 through Matchday 11 in 2001-02.
None of those teams went on to retain their crown. The highest any of them finished was third (Man Utd in 2001-02), while Chelsea (10th in 2015-16) and Leicester (12th in 2016-17) ended up way down the table.
In fact, no team has gone on to win the English top-flight title after collecting as few as 18 points in their opening 11 games of a season since Everton in 1986-87.
The Opta supercomputer may not be completely writing Liverpool off yet, as they still finished top in 7% of the latest 10,000 simulations, but that is compared to Arsenal’s 63.6%.
It’s a long way back.
Newcastle Can’t Cope With Champions League Football
Newcastle fans may well be overcome with a sense of déjà vu.
In 2023-24, when they made their return to the Champions League, Newcastle’s domestic form suffered.
Initially, they didn’t do too badly, enjoying a seven-match unbeaten run in the Premier League between mid-September and early November, but eventually they struggled to balance their commitments in the two competitions.
By mid-January, Newcastle had lost 10 of their 21 Premier League matches, sat 10th in the table and had finished bottom of their UCL group. Being out of Europe in the new year almost certainly contributed to their improvement, as they lost just four times in 17 top-flight outings.
This season appears to be following a not-too-dissimilar pattern. Their summer transfer window was widely regarded to have been disappointing, though Nick Woltemade has made a very good start to life in Newcastle, and it seems they are once again struggling to find a balance, partly due to lacking quality in depth.
In their defence, Sunday’s 3-1 loss at Brentford was actually their first defeat directly after a midweek UCL game this season, but it’s not so outlandish suggest their general struggles are a knock-on effect from a more demanding fixture schedule.
Their issues are manifesting on the road in particular.
Eddie Howe’s men are yet to win away from home in the league this season, scoring just three goals in six matches, which have been split evenly between draws and defeats.
All three losses have been in their three most recent trips, however, and their schedule isn’t showing much sign of letting up over the next month and a bit after the international break.
They face Manchester City, Tottenham, Sunderland, Chelsea and Manchester United all before the end of the year, plus trips to Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.
And, the difference between this season and 2023-24 is they are guaranteed to have European football in January, not to mention the fact there’s a strong chance they’ll at least have a play-off round to navigate as well.
Obviously, the point of football is to have these games because it means you’ve done well in the past, but if Newcastle are already showing cracks, the next couple of months could be very trying.
Forest Have Rediscovered Themselves
Remember Ange Postecoglou at Nottingham Forest? That was just a bizarre fever dream rather than reality, right?
Well, whether that really happened or not, Forest are starting to look a little more like the team we’d become familiar with.
Sunday saw them win in the Premier League for the first time since the opening day of the season as they beat Leeds United 3-1 at the City Ground.
That was Sean Dyche’s first league win in charge, something Postecoglou didn’t manage, and it’s clear to see he’s trying to get Forest somewhere close to the way they were playing last season, undoing what his predecessor did.
Against Leeds on Sunday, Forest recorded more than one direct attack (open-play sequences starting just inside their own half, have at least 50% movement towards the opposition’s goal and end in a shot or a touch in the opposition’s box) for only the second time since August; their seven sequences of 10+ passes was their third fewest of the campaign; their direct speed of 2.1 metres upfield per second was their joint quickest of 2025-26; and they averaged just 2.72 passes per sequence, their fewest of the season.
In short, he’s getting them back into the mindset of direct football and quick transitions, which almost took them into the Champions League last season.
There’s much more to come from Dyche’s Forest.
Igor Thiago Can Make Brazil’s World Cup Squad
A few months ago, Igor Thiago was pretty much an unknown quantity in the Premier League. Although he was recruited from Club Brugge last year for a substantial fee, he missed practically all of 2024-25 due to injury.
There was a lot of pressure on him coming into 2025-26 as well, considering Brentford lost Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo. Igor Thiago was going to be a de facto replacement for some of those goals – or at least that was the hope.
Whether the most optimistic Brentford fan expected what came next is debatable, however.
Igor Thiago already has eight Premier League goals for the season; the most any Brentford player has ever scored before Christmas in a single season is 10 (Ivan Toney in 2022-23, Mbeumo in 2024-25), and the Bees still have six more games before 25 December.
Granted, three of his eight have been penalties, but they all count.
For non-penalty expected goals (3.3), Igor Thiago is as high as ninth in the Premier League this term, which isn’t bad for a player in a bottom-half team and who spent the best part of a year out injured.
Igor Thiago’s emergence in the Premier League comes at a particularly opportune time for him with the World Cup just around the corner.
It might seem a little fanciful to suggest he could play for Brazil at the 2026 World Cup (in fairness, that’s the point of the Knee-Jerk Reactions), but no Brazilian across the top five leagues can match his non-penalty goals return or his overall total.
Brazil are exceedingly short of options when it comes to powerful and physical types of centre-forward who fit into the mould of a classic number nine, but Igor Thiago does. If he keeps scoring, Carlo Ancelotti might not be able to ignore him.
Rob Edwards Has Made the Wrong Move
Rob Edwards had been doing a fine job in the Championship with Middlesbrough, a first return to the Premier League since 2017 looking very much on the cards.
But the former Luton Town boss has skipped ahead to the next chapter, taking a shortcut back to the Premier League by reportedly accepting a deal to become Wolves manager.
It’s certainly not a decision that’s been universally accepted, though.
After all, Wolves’ 3-0 defeat to Chelsea on Saturday continued their winless start to 2025-26. It’s just the second league campaign in their history in which they’ve not won any of their opening 11 games after 1983-84 – that ended in relegation from the top flight.
The Opta supercomputer gives Wolves a massive 90.2% chance of being relegated this season, while Boro earned automatic promotion in 30.7% of the projection model’s 10,000 simulations of the Championship.
With that in mind, it’s hardly difficult to imagine a scenario where Boro are in the Premier League next season and Edwards (assuming he’s still in charge of Wolves by then) isn’t.
Similarly, there’s an alternate reality where Edwards takes Boro up and then spends more time in the Premier League with them than he will with Wolves full stop.
Of course, nothing’s for certain and Edwards is presumably backing his ability to keep Wolves up. If he can’t, Boro fans will be quick to remind him of his decision.
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Five Knee-Jerk Reactions to Premier League Matchday 11 Opta Analyst.
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