Police are preparing for a surge in crime that could see hundreds of thousands more offences committed in just one year, if Government prison sentence reforms go ahead.
Plans proposed under the Sentencing Bill to ease the prisons overcrowding crisis include limiting the use of short prison sentences, by using community sentences instead, and releasing convicted criminals earlier in their jail terms.
But police chiefs, who say they are supportive of efforts to reduce reoffending rates, say it could lead to a short term surge in crime of up to six per cent – or an estimated 396,000 more recorded offences.
They also estimate that the extra strain on policing will cost £300m to £400m, but say it is currently “an unfunded consequence”.
It comes amid further scrutiny of the prison system, after it was revealed two inmates were released in error from Wandsworth prison just days apart – making it the third high-profile mistaken release in as many weeks.
A manhunt is underway for Brahim Kaddour-Cherif, who was serving a sentence for trespass with intent to steal, but had previously also been convicted for indecent exposure.
Surrey Police are also hunting Billy Smith, 35, who was also accidentally released from HMP Wandsworth on Monday, who has links to the Woking area.
Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport, who spent 18 months on secondment as a prison governor at HMP Berwyn, said police forces are planning for an increase in all types of offences if the reforms go ahead.
“We are expecting that while the programmes in the community are being ramped up by the probation service as part of their implementation plan to support offenders to rehabilitate, we expect, certainly in the short term, there will be an increase of offending in the community,” he said.
He said that the rise in police recorded crime in one year is expected to be between 4-6%.
“I believe in the Sentencing Bill and I believe in rehabilitation but it has to be properly funded,” he added.
William Smith (left) was released on 3 October while Brahim Kaddour-Cherif (right) was released on 29 OctoberPolice chiefs are supportive of the plans to reduce the use of short prison terms, as reoffending rates for prison sentences under less than 12 months currently stand at around 50%.
Chairman of the National Police Chiefs’ Council Gavin Stephens said: “We’ve all been in policing long enough to know that some of the things that help people stop offending or desist from offending are not going to be resolved by short sentences in particular.
“So that’s a fundamental reason why we’re supportive of this.
“Our issue is in the short-term period of the implementation, there is a shift of demand on to policing, and we want that shift of demand onto us to be properly recognised and properly modelled … so we can have the right and appropriate resource in there to mitigate the risk to communities.”
A Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “The Government inherited a prison system in crisis, days away from running out of space.
“This would have brought the justice system to a standstill, stopped the police from being able to make arrests and led to unchecked criminality on our streets.
“Public safety will always be our top priority and we are building 14,000 more prison places to keep dangerous offenders locked up.
“Offenders released face strict licence conditions and we are increasing the probation budget by an extra £700m over the next three years and investing in new technology to reduce admin so staff can focus on work that reduces reoffending.”
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