Bringing on a player in the closing moments of extra-time to take a penalty has become a common trend at major tournaments. But World Cup and European Championship data suggests it may be doing more harm than good.
Taking a penalty is, in theory, one of the simplest tasks in football. The ball is stationary and the goal is 12 yards away. At the elite level, you might expect every player to score almost every time.
But pressure does funny things to people.
Jonathan Tah blazed his spot-kick over the bar and José Canale tucked home to cap one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.
Still, his penalty miss highlights an interesting shootout trend. With extra-time dwindling, it has become more and more common for managers to sub on penalty ‘specialists’; players whose sole purpose it is to come on and score a penalty in the shootout that is just moments away.
On the surface, it seems like a sound theory. But it turns out, it’s not that simple in practice.
Remarkably, eight of the last 10 players to be subbed on after the 115th minute ahead of a penalty shootout at a UEFA European Championship or FIFA World Cup have gone on to miss their penalty. That’s just a 20% conversion rate.
Three of those eight players represented England, of course.
Jamie Carragher was brought on in the 119th minute of the Three Lions’ 2006 World Cup quarter-final against Portugal, touching the ball just once before missing his re-taken penalty as England crashed out in Germany.
More recently, Gareth Southgate elected to bring on
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