Twice at The Athletic recently, the Chicago Cubs have been connected to Japanese ace Tatsuya Imai, whose NPB team, the Seibu Lions, are generally expected to post him for MLB teams this offseason. Jim Bowden mentioned the Cubs as a possible fit in his top-50 free agent rankings article, and Sahadev Sharma included Imai among the Cubs’ possible pursuits for this offseason.
Here’s what Sharma wrote:
“But perhaps the Cubs revisit some trade talks that stalled over the summer — Joe Ryan would sure look good leading this rotation with an elite defense behind him. Free agency isn’t littered with impact arms, but there are some intriguing starters, led by Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease. Chicago could head back into the Japanese market, where Tatsuya Imai could be posted and receive a big payday.”
As with Bowden’s mention, it’s general. It’s a little dot-connecty. So we’re not yet going to presume the Cubs are actively interested in Imai. But the mentions felt worth sharing, even if only as an opportunity to start to familiarize ourselves with the next big-time Japanese starter who might land a nine-figure deal.
Tatsuya Imai, 27, has been about 25 to 30% better than league average in the NPB by ERA- over the last four years, with peripherals that have gotten better and better over the years. This past season, he paired a 27.8% K rate with a 7.0% BB rate, and posted a 1.92 ERA over 163.2 innings, and it’s not hard to see why now might be the time to capitalize on a move to Major League Baseball.
Part of what will make Imai so intriguing to MLB teams, in addition to his age, is that he’s one of the hardest-throwing starters in Japan. He sits 95mph+, and apparently reaches 99mph. Couple that with a slider, changeup, splitter mix, and the pieces are there for a guy to succeed in the transition to MLB.
For that reason, the expectation is that Imai’s contract will likely be in the nine figures – Jeff Passan heard guesses in the $140 to $150 million range, and that’s before the $20+ million posting fee – and that’s where the questions will come in about whether the Cubs will be sufficiently aggressive to sign him. The Cubs aren’t perpetually out on nine-figure pitchers, but the last one they signed was Yu Darvish some seven years ago.
Maybe Tatsuya Imai’s age will spur the Cubs on a bit more than usual, together with the ability to keep building out the Japan pipeline. But you have to figure that Imai will be highly sought-after, and you’re not only going to have to recruit him well to your city, you’ll also probably have to win a bidding war.
Of course, if you believe in the pitcher, then I would argue there is no team in baseball that benefits more from adding an impact, top-of-the-rotation arm. Yes, other clubs – most clubs? – could benefit as much as the Cubs. But more? No. The Cubs need a guy like Tatsuya Imai as much as any other team, and we saw it late in the year.
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